4/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
AAPL
why it's the main stock to watch
- up until recently the
TNX (10Y) was headed lower. this changed in the last few sessions. let's leave the various "explanations" beyond this (perhaps the comments) and simply focus on price.
- the reasonAAPL is of particular importance is given it's supreme weighting in the 
SPX (up until recently the largest cap, now 
MSFT as of today), but more importantly it's bond-like cash flow stream and high ROE's given strong brand. this affords investors (even those who eschew tech generally, like uncle warren) the ability to "look through" various disruptive and often more terminal-weighted names, even if they're megacaps as well, like $nvda. the current fcf yield on AAPL is almost identical to the 10Y.
- when you look at the above chart which plotsAAPL vs. the 
TLT (price of apple divided by the 10Y), you'll notice two obvious things (and i've used heikin ashi candles to further underscore the points).
1/ aapl has consistently outperformed the long bond in the last decade+
2/ period of multi-month drawdown vs. the 10Y have averaged about 80 days and ~30% lower, nearly identical to where we are today
- when we consider the "reinvestment risk" of something like the 10Y for something like aapl, and considering the historical parallels, one would ask the question "is this over". and that's why this is so interesting/ important to watch $aapl.
- beyond it's growing digital services contribution to the business, the core product (which delivers these services) is still mainly based in the "china complex", whether that's assembly, or within a headline's scare away in Taiwan (w/ their chips). so it's *very* exposed to what's happening here and a liquid canary for sentiment as to what's happening.
- and beyond a resolution to the tariff debacle (if i may be so polite to call it that and stick to the points I'm trying to make in this post), the 10Y is behaving in a way where confidence might be shifting more toward a pseudo-sovereign LIKE APPLE given it's bond-like characteristics (points above) versus this gov't issued IOU. In other words, would you trustAAPL stock (or even their bonds for that matter) to appreciate (or the yield to decline) versus the US 10Y. And there is the funny conundrum... and the paradigm shift happening in real time.
Said another way:
1/ if the 10Y starts to behave, it's likely because there's some market belief of tariff resolution and a path forward (let's call it "look thru" or "reduced uncertainty") and in this scenarioAAPL like outperforms any benefit to lower yields given the recent pullback and given the chart/ comments above.
2/ and if the opposite is true, and the market continues to call BS on this whole ordeal, the 10Y is likely to dramatically underperformAAPL's stock price and/or the bottom for AAPL one could argue is much more limited (perhaps 10-15%, at most 20%) vs. the 10Y (TLT), and from there the risk-reward (the second-order implication of this) is still an AAPL share price that, again, dramatically outperforms the 10Y.
While is all to say: I am closely watchingAAPL as if it were the most important economic variable in this whole equation and believe it's much closer to not only a trade-able bottom but potentially a multi-year floor price than the market's current sentiment would lead you to believe. And without getting too long winded (which this already is), the similar logic applies albeit to a slightly lesser degree for 
AMZN, 
NVDA, MSFT and a few other mega caps (
META, 
GOOGL) each with their own quirks/ "features" or "drawbacks" in the current climate/ topic.
So while I'm still packing 25% cash on the books, eventually this old man is going to call BS. And the big liquid stuff will be a good place to re-accumulate before we can distribute into the slightly more nuanced names (of which I own a few - if u follow u know).
Let's see. Hope it helps your mosaic. Lmk (and especially) if you disagree.
V
AAPLwhy it's the main stock to watch
- up until recently the
TNX (10Y) was headed lower. this changed in the last few sessions. let's leave the various "explanations" beyond this (perhaps the comments) and simply focus on price. - the reason
AAPL is of particular importance is given it's supreme weighting in the SPX (up until recently the largest cap, now MSFT as of today), but more importantly it's bond-like cash flow stream and high ROE's given strong brand. this affords investors (even those who eschew tech generally, like uncle warren) the ability to "look through" various disruptive and often more terminal-weighted names, even if they're megacaps as well, like $nvda. the current fcf yield on AAPL is almost identical to the 10Y.- when you look at the above chart which plots
AAPL vs. the TLT (price of apple divided by the 10Y), you'll notice two obvious things (and i've used heikin ashi candles to further underscore the points).1/ aapl has consistently outperformed the long bond in the last decade+
2/ period of multi-month drawdown vs. the 10Y have averaged about 80 days and ~30% lower, nearly identical to where we are today
- when we consider the "reinvestment risk" of something like the 10Y for something like aapl, and considering the historical parallels, one would ask the question "is this over". and that's why this is so interesting/ important to watch $aapl.
- beyond it's growing digital services contribution to the business, the core product (which delivers these services) is still mainly based in the "china complex", whether that's assembly, or within a headline's scare away in Taiwan (w/ their chips). so it's *very* exposed to what's happening here and a liquid canary for sentiment as to what's happening.
- and beyond a resolution to the tariff debacle (if i may be so polite to call it that and stick to the points I'm trying to make in this post), the 10Y is behaving in a way where confidence might be shifting more toward a pseudo-sovereign LIKE APPLE given it's bond-like characteristics (points above) versus this gov't issued IOU. In other words, would you trust
AAPL stock (or even their bonds for that matter) to appreciate (or the yield to decline) versus the US 10Y. And there is the funny conundrum... and the paradigm shift happening in real time. Said another way:
1/ if the 10Y starts to behave, it's likely because there's some market belief of tariff resolution and a path forward (let's call it "look thru" or "reduced uncertainty") and in this scenario
AAPL like outperforms any benefit to lower yields given the recent pullback and given the chart/ comments above.2/ and if the opposite is true, and the market continues to call BS on this whole ordeal, the 10Y is likely to dramatically underperform
AAPL's stock price and/or the bottom for AAPL one could argue is much more limited (perhaps 10-15%, at most 20%) vs. the 10Y (TLT), and from there the risk-reward (the second-order implication of this) is still an AAPL share price that, again, dramatically outperforms the 10Y.While is all to say: I am closely watching
AAPL as if it were the most important economic variable in this whole equation and believe it's much closer to not only a trade-able bottom but potentially a multi-year floor price than the market's current sentiment would lead you to believe. And without getting too long winded (which this already is), the similar logic applies albeit to a slightly lesser degree for AMZN, NVDA, MSFT and a few other mega caps (META, GOOGL) each with their own quirks/ "features" or "drawbacks" in the current climate/ topic.So while I'm still packing 25% cash on the books, eventually this old man is going to call BS. And the big liquid stuff will be a good place to re-accumulate before we can distribute into the slightly more nuanced names (of which I own a few - if u follow u know).
Let's see. Hope it helps your mosaic. Lmk (and especially) if you disagree.
V
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.