AUD/USD Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6530–0.6550
Slightly bearish near-term bias amid RBA rate cut expectations
Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Current Yield: 4.15% (as of June 30, 2025)
Rose 0.01 percentage points from the previous session.
Reflects market reaction to RBA policy and global trade uncertainty.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate
Current Cash Rate: 3.85% (lowest in two years)
Cut by 25 bps in May 2025 to combat slowing growth and align with 2–3% inflation targets.
Markets price a 90% probability of another 25 bps cut in July 2025.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate
Current Federal Funds Rate: 4.25–4.50%
Unchanged since December 2024; held steady at the June 18, 2025, meeting.
Fed signaled potential for two 25 bps cuts in late 2025 (September/December), contingent on inflation cooling.
Key Implications
Rate Differential:
RBA-Fed spread: –0.40% to –0.65% (AUD negative), pressuring AUD/USD.
Australia’s 10Y yield premium over US 10Y (~4.26%) is –0.11%, reducing AUD carry appeal.
AUD/USD Drivers:
RBA Easing: Expected July cut may weaken AUD further.
Fed Patience: Delayed cuts sustain USD strength.
Yield Sensitivity: Narrowing yield spreads limit AUD upside.
In summary:
AUD/USD trades near 0.6530–0.6550, pressured by RBA-Fed policy divergence and narrowing yield spreads. The RBA’s dovish path (3.85% rate, July cut expected) contrasts with the Fed’s hold at 4.25–4.50%, sustaining USD strength. Australia’s 10Y yield at 4.15% offers minimal premium over US Treasuries, limiting AUD support.
#AUDUSD
Current Level: 0.6530–0.6550
Slightly bearish near-term bias amid RBA rate cut expectations
Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Current Yield: 4.15% (as of June 30, 2025)
Rose 0.01 percentage points from the previous session.
Reflects market reaction to RBA policy and global trade uncertainty.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate
Current Cash Rate: 3.85% (lowest in two years)
Cut by 25 bps in May 2025 to combat slowing growth and align with 2–3% inflation targets.
Markets price a 90% probability of another 25 bps cut in July 2025.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Rate
Current Federal Funds Rate: 4.25–4.50%
Unchanged since December 2024; held steady at the June 18, 2025, meeting.
Fed signaled potential for two 25 bps cuts in late 2025 (September/December), contingent on inflation cooling.
Key Implications
Rate Differential:
RBA-Fed spread: –0.40% to –0.65% (AUD negative), pressuring AUD/USD.
Australia’s 10Y yield premium over US 10Y (~4.26%) is –0.11%, reducing AUD carry appeal.
AUD/USD Drivers:
RBA Easing: Expected July cut may weaken AUD further.
Fed Patience: Delayed cuts sustain USD strength.
Yield Sensitivity: Narrowing yield spreads limit AUD upside.
In summary:
AUD/USD trades near 0.6530–0.6550, pressured by RBA-Fed policy divergence and narrowing yield spreads. The RBA’s dovish path (3.85% rate, July cut expected) contrasts with the Fed’s hold at 4.25–4.50%, sustaining USD strength. Australia’s 10Y yield at 4.15% offers minimal premium over US Treasuries, limiting AUD support.
#AUDUSD
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.