BPCL | Based on Demand Zone and Elliott Wave Analysis
[1] Chart Overview
The chart highlights a completed Elliott Wave 5-structure, with price entering a Valid Demand Zone between ₹270-280.
A potential reversal setup is visible, targeting higher levels if price action confirms buyer strength.
[2] Analysis Breakdown
[3] Trading Plan
[4] Risk Management
[5] Educational Notes
Demand Zone Reversals: Demand zones often lead to significant reversals when combined with liquidity traps and bullish signals.
Wave 5 Completions: Wave 5 typically completes a trend, offering reversal opportunities.
Patience is Key: Wait for confirmation signals to improve trade probability.
Conclusion:
Bullish Plan: Watch for reversals in the ₹270-280 demand zone, targeting ₹343-355 and ₹387-400.
Bearish Plan: Short below ₹265 if the demand zone fails, targeting ₹240-250.
Stick to the plan, follow risk management rules, and allow the market to confirm your bias before executing trades.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. The above analysis is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
[1] Chart Overview
The chart highlights a completed Elliott Wave 5-structure, with price entering a Valid Demand Zone between ₹270-280.
A potential reversal setup is visible, targeting higher levels if price action confirms buyer strength.
[2] Analysis Breakdown
- Key Zones to Watch:
Demand Zone (₹270-280):
A deep retracement zone with strong historical buying activity.
Liquidity likely emerges here after breaking the Major Base Support, trapping weak sellers.
First Target Zone (₹343-355):
Initial resistance where sellers may reappear after a reversal.
Second Target Zone (₹387-400):
Extended retracement supply zone where profit-taking is expected. - Elliott Wave Structure:
The current chart shows a 5-wave bearish structure:
Wave (1): Initial impulsive move down.
Wave (2): Weak corrective pullback upward.
Wave (3): Strongest wave breaking major supports.
Wave (4): Minor correction upward.
Wave (5): Final wave driving price into the demand zone.
Wave 5 completion often signals a potential trend reversal, aligning with this setup. - Confirmation Signals:
Price Action: Look for bullish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing) near ₹270-280.
Volume Spike: Increased buying volume in the demand zone indicates institutional interest.
Change of Character (ChoCH): Shift from lower lows/lower highs to higher highs/higher lows.
[3] Trading Plan
- Bullish Reversal Trade:
Entry: Near ₹270-280 upon confirmation of bullish price action or volume signals.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹343-355 (initial resistance).
Target 2: ₹387-400 (supply zone).
Stop Loss: Below ₹265 (invalidation of demand zone). - Bearish Breakdown Trade (If Setup Fails):
Logic: A daily close below ₹265 invalidates the demand zone.
Entry: Short position below ₹265 after a confirmed breakdown.
Target: ₹240-250 (next strong support zone).
Stop Loss: Above ₹270-275 (to avoid false breakdowns).
[4] Risk Management
- []Position Sizing: Limit risk to 1-2% of total capital.
[]Stop Loss Discipline: Strictly follow stop-loss levels to prevent emotional trading. - Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Aim for at least 1:2 or higher R:R ratio (risk ₹10 to target ₹20+).
[5] Educational Notes
Demand Zone Reversals: Demand zones often lead to significant reversals when combined with liquidity traps and bullish signals.
Wave 5 Completions: Wave 5 typically completes a trend, offering reversal opportunities.
Patience is Key: Wait for confirmation signals to improve trade probability.
Conclusion:
Bullish Plan: Watch for reversals in the ₹270-280 demand zone, targeting ₹343-355 and ₹387-400.
Bearish Plan: Short below ₹265 if the demand zone fails, targeting ₹240-250.
Stick to the plan, follow risk management rules, and allow the market to confirm your bias before executing trades.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. The above analysis is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.