Bitcoin's Technical Trajectory: Analysis for Q3-Q4 2025
Breaking New Records: Bitcoin's Path Beyond the July Peak
With Bitcoin currently trading near historical highs after reaching its all-time high of $123,218 in July 2025, we find ourselves in unprecedented territory. This comprehensive technical analysis examines Bitcoin's potential trajectory through the remainder of 2025, leveraging multiple analytical frameworks to identify probable price targets and key levels.
Current Market Context
Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable ascent in 2025, climbing from around $85,000 in January to establish a new all-time high of $123,218 in July. After this peak, we've seen a period of consolidation with price action forming a potential bull flag pattern between $117,000-$120,000. This consolidation phase represents a critical juncture for Bitcoin's next directional move.
The most recent data shows Bitcoin trading around $118,200 in late July, representing a modest pullback of approximately 4% from the all-time high. This shallow retracement suggests underlying strength rather than exhaustion in the primary trend.
RSI Analysis: Healthy Momentum Reset
Despite Bitcoin's extraordinary rise to $123,218 in July, the daily RSI has demonstrated remarkable resilience. After reaching overbought territory (70+) during the July peak, the indicator has now cooled to approximately 42-46, indicating a healthy reset of momentum conditions without surrendering the broader uptrend.
The weekly RSI reading of 46.4 is particularly significant—showing that despite the recent consolidation, Bitcoin maintains substantial momentum capacity before reaching the extreme readings (80+) that typically signal major cycle tops. This technical positioning creates an ideal scenario where momentum has reset while price structure remains intact.
Most notably, the absence of bearish divergences between price and RSI on higher timeframes suggests the current consolidation is likely a pause rather than a reversal in the primary trend.
Wyckoff Analysis: Re-accumulation Before Continuation
The price action following the $123,218 July peak displays classic characteristics of Wyckoff re-accumulation rather than distribution:
The initial decline from the peak represents a "Preliminary Support" (PS) phase
The subsequent trading range between $117,000-$120,000 shows tight price action with decreasing volatility
Volume characteristics show diminishing selling pressure rather than distribution
Recent price action suggests we're approaching the "Spring" phase that typically precedes markup
According to the data, Bitcoin's price action in late July shows decreasing volatility with narrowing price ranges, consistent with the "Cause Building" phase in Wyckoff methodology. This structure indicates institutional accumulation is still occurring at these elevated levels—a powerful sign that smart money anticipates further upside potential. The completion of this re-accumulation pattern projects a move toward the $135,000-$145,000 range in the coming months.
Supply/Demand Zone Analysis: Key Levels Identified
Supply and demand zone analysis reveals critical price levels that will influence Bitcoin's next directional move:
Major demand zone established between $115,000-$117,000 (recent consolidation floor)
Secondary support cluster at $108,000-$110,000 (previous resistance turned support)
Primary resistance at $123,200-$125,000 (all-time high region)
Limited historical supply overhead above $123,218 suggests minimal resistance once this level is breached
The formation of fresh demand zones during the recent consolidation indicates strategic accumulation before the anticipated upward expansion. The neutralization of previous supply zones during the advance to all-time highs has effectively cleared the technical pathway for Bitcoin's next significant move higher.
Volume Analysis: Confirming the Bullish Case
Examination of trading volume during the recent consolidation provides crucial validation for our bullish thesis:
Declining volume during pullbacks indicates diminishing selling pressure
Volume spikes on upward moves suggest accumulation on strength
The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) maintains a positive slope, confirming the underlying strength of the trend
The high-volume node has migrated upward in recent weeks, signalling comfort with accumulation at these unprecedented price levels—a powerful indication of market confidence in Bitcoin's valuation. The buying/selling volume differential maintains a positive bias, confirming underlying accumulation despite price consolidation.
Fibonacci Extension Framework: Projecting Targets
With Bitcoin having established a new all-time high at $123,218 in July, we can project potential targets using Fibonacci extensions from the most recent significant swing points:
The 127.2% extension from the June-July rally projects to approximately $132,000
The 161.8% extension suggests potential movement toward $145,000
The 200% extension indicates a possible target of $160,000
These projections align with psychological thresholds that could serve as natural targets in this new price discovery phase.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Fifth Wave Scenario
The current price action suggests we're likely in an extended fifth wave scenario within a larger degree bull cycle:
Primary waves I through III appear complete with the move to $123,218 in July
The current consolidation represents wave IV
Wave V is projected to reach the $140,000-$160,000 range
This wave count suggests potential for continued appreciation toward the $145,000-$160,000 range before a more significant corrective phase begins. The internal structure of the current consolidation displays textbook proportional relationships, further validating our analysis.
Price Projection Timeline
August-September 2025:
Completion of the current consolidation phase with a potential final retest of support in the $115,000-$117,000 range. This would represent the "Last Point of Support" in Wyckoff terminology and provide a final opportunity for institutional accumulation before the next leg up. A decisive break above $125,000 would confirm the end of the consolidation phase.
October 2025:
Renewed momentum pushing Bitcoin toward the $132,000-$140,000 range, potentially coinciding with seasonal strength typically observed in Q4. This phase could see increased institutional participation as year-end positioning begins, with volume expansion confirming the strength of the move.
November-December 2025:
Final wave extension potentially reaching the $145,000-$160,000 range, representing a 20-30% appreciation from current all-time high levels. This phase may exhibit increased volatility and could be followed by a more substantial correction as the extended fifth wave completes.
Key Levels to Monitor
Support Zones:
Primary: $115,000-$117,000 (must hold for bullish scenario)
Secondary: $108,000-$110,000 (previous resistance turned support)
Tertiary: $100,000-$102,000 (psychological and technical support)
Resistance Zones:
Immediate: $123,200-$125,000 (all-time high region)
Target 1: $132,000-$135,000 (127.2% Fibonacci extension)
Target 2: $145,000-$150,000 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
Target 3: $160,000+ (200% Fibonacci extension)
The Technical Case for New Highs
Despite Bitcoin already achieving unprecedented price levels in July, multiple technical frameworks suggest the potential for continued appreciation:
Historical Precedent: Previous bull cycles have shown Bitcoin capable of extending significantly beyond initial all-time highs before cycle completion
Institutional Adoption: On-chain metrics indicate continued accumulation by large holders despite elevated prices, with exchange outflows remaining positive
Technical Structure: The current consolidation pattern resembles re-accumulation rather than distribution, suggesting the market is preparing for another leg higher
Momentum Characteristics: Current momentum readings have reset from overbought conditions without breaking the underlying trend structure
Strategic Considerations
With Bitcoin having already achieved a new all-time high at $123,218 in July, strategic approaches might include:
Maintaining core positions while implementing trailing stop strategies
Adding to positions during retests of key support levels ($115,000-$117,000)
Considering partial profit-taking at key Fibonacci extension levels
Remaining vigilant for signs of distribution patterns that may emerge at higher levels
Conclusion: The Path to $160,000
The weight of technical evidence suggests Bitcoin has entered a new paradigm of price discovery following its break to all-time highs in July 2025. While the path may include periods of consolidation and volatility, the underlying trend remains firmly bullish with multiple technical frameworks projecting targets in the $145,000-$160,000 range by year-end 2025.
The current consolidation phase represents a healthy reset of momentum conditions rather than a trend reversal, creating an ideal technical foundation for Bitcoin's next major advance. With institutional adoption continuing to grow and technical indicators suggesting ample room for further appreciation, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to achieve new record highs in the coming months.
Breaking New Records: Bitcoin's Path Beyond the July Peak
With Bitcoin currently trading near historical highs after reaching its all-time high of $123,218 in July 2025, we find ourselves in unprecedented territory. This comprehensive technical analysis examines Bitcoin's potential trajectory through the remainder of 2025, leveraging multiple analytical frameworks to identify probable price targets and key levels.
Current Market Context
Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable ascent in 2025, climbing from around $85,000 in January to establish a new all-time high of $123,218 in July. After this peak, we've seen a period of consolidation with price action forming a potential bull flag pattern between $117,000-$120,000. This consolidation phase represents a critical juncture for Bitcoin's next directional move.
The most recent data shows Bitcoin trading around $118,200 in late July, representing a modest pullback of approximately 4% from the all-time high. This shallow retracement suggests underlying strength rather than exhaustion in the primary trend.
RSI Analysis: Healthy Momentum Reset
Despite Bitcoin's extraordinary rise to $123,218 in July, the daily RSI has demonstrated remarkable resilience. After reaching overbought territory (70+) during the July peak, the indicator has now cooled to approximately 42-46, indicating a healthy reset of momentum conditions without surrendering the broader uptrend.
The weekly RSI reading of 46.4 is particularly significant—showing that despite the recent consolidation, Bitcoin maintains substantial momentum capacity before reaching the extreme readings (80+) that typically signal major cycle tops. This technical positioning creates an ideal scenario where momentum has reset while price structure remains intact.
Most notably, the absence of bearish divergences between price and RSI on higher timeframes suggests the current consolidation is likely a pause rather than a reversal in the primary trend.
Wyckoff Analysis: Re-accumulation Before Continuation
The price action following the $123,218 July peak displays classic characteristics of Wyckoff re-accumulation rather than distribution:
The initial decline from the peak represents a "Preliminary Support" (PS) phase
The subsequent trading range between $117,000-$120,000 shows tight price action with decreasing volatility
Volume characteristics show diminishing selling pressure rather than distribution
Recent price action suggests we're approaching the "Spring" phase that typically precedes markup
According to the data, Bitcoin's price action in late July shows decreasing volatility with narrowing price ranges, consistent with the "Cause Building" phase in Wyckoff methodology. This structure indicates institutional accumulation is still occurring at these elevated levels—a powerful sign that smart money anticipates further upside potential. The completion of this re-accumulation pattern projects a move toward the $135,000-$145,000 range in the coming months.
Supply/Demand Zone Analysis: Key Levels Identified
Supply and demand zone analysis reveals critical price levels that will influence Bitcoin's next directional move:
Major demand zone established between $115,000-$117,000 (recent consolidation floor)
Secondary support cluster at $108,000-$110,000 (previous resistance turned support)
Primary resistance at $123,200-$125,000 (all-time high region)
Limited historical supply overhead above $123,218 suggests minimal resistance once this level is breached
The formation of fresh demand zones during the recent consolidation indicates strategic accumulation before the anticipated upward expansion. The neutralization of previous supply zones during the advance to all-time highs has effectively cleared the technical pathway for Bitcoin's next significant move higher.
Volume Analysis: Confirming the Bullish Case
Examination of trading volume during the recent consolidation provides crucial validation for our bullish thesis:
Declining volume during pullbacks indicates diminishing selling pressure
Volume spikes on upward moves suggest accumulation on strength
The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) maintains a positive slope, confirming the underlying strength of the trend
The high-volume node has migrated upward in recent weeks, signalling comfort with accumulation at these unprecedented price levels—a powerful indication of market confidence in Bitcoin's valuation. The buying/selling volume differential maintains a positive bias, confirming underlying accumulation despite price consolidation.
Fibonacci Extension Framework: Projecting Targets
With Bitcoin having established a new all-time high at $123,218 in July, we can project potential targets using Fibonacci extensions from the most recent significant swing points:
The 127.2% extension from the June-July rally projects to approximately $132,000
The 161.8% extension suggests potential movement toward $145,000
The 200% extension indicates a possible target of $160,000
These projections align with psychological thresholds that could serve as natural targets in this new price discovery phase.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Fifth Wave Scenario
The current price action suggests we're likely in an extended fifth wave scenario within a larger degree bull cycle:
Primary waves I through III appear complete with the move to $123,218 in July
The current consolidation represents wave IV
Wave V is projected to reach the $140,000-$160,000 range
This wave count suggests potential for continued appreciation toward the $145,000-$160,000 range before a more significant corrective phase begins. The internal structure of the current consolidation displays textbook proportional relationships, further validating our analysis.
Price Projection Timeline
August-September 2025:
Completion of the current consolidation phase with a potential final retest of support in the $115,000-$117,000 range. This would represent the "Last Point of Support" in Wyckoff terminology and provide a final opportunity for institutional accumulation before the next leg up. A decisive break above $125,000 would confirm the end of the consolidation phase.
October 2025:
Renewed momentum pushing Bitcoin toward the $132,000-$140,000 range, potentially coinciding with seasonal strength typically observed in Q4. This phase could see increased institutional participation as year-end positioning begins, with volume expansion confirming the strength of the move.
November-December 2025:
Final wave extension potentially reaching the $145,000-$160,000 range, representing a 20-30% appreciation from current all-time high levels. This phase may exhibit increased volatility and could be followed by a more substantial correction as the extended fifth wave completes.
Key Levels to Monitor
Support Zones:
Primary: $115,000-$117,000 (must hold for bullish scenario)
Secondary: $108,000-$110,000 (previous resistance turned support)
Tertiary: $100,000-$102,000 (psychological and technical support)
Resistance Zones:
Immediate: $123,200-$125,000 (all-time high region)
Target 1: $132,000-$135,000 (127.2% Fibonacci extension)
Target 2: $145,000-$150,000 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)
Target 3: $160,000+ (200% Fibonacci extension)
The Technical Case for New Highs
Despite Bitcoin already achieving unprecedented price levels in July, multiple technical frameworks suggest the potential for continued appreciation:
Historical Precedent: Previous bull cycles have shown Bitcoin capable of extending significantly beyond initial all-time highs before cycle completion
Institutional Adoption: On-chain metrics indicate continued accumulation by large holders despite elevated prices, with exchange outflows remaining positive
Technical Structure: The current consolidation pattern resembles re-accumulation rather than distribution, suggesting the market is preparing for another leg higher
Momentum Characteristics: Current momentum readings have reset from overbought conditions without breaking the underlying trend structure
Strategic Considerations
With Bitcoin having already achieved a new all-time high at $123,218 in July, strategic approaches might include:
Maintaining core positions while implementing trailing stop strategies
Adding to positions during retests of key support levels ($115,000-$117,000)
Considering partial profit-taking at key Fibonacci extension levels
Remaining vigilant for signs of distribution patterns that may emerge at higher levels
Conclusion: The Path to $160,000
The weight of technical evidence suggests Bitcoin has entered a new paradigm of price discovery following its break to all-time highs in July 2025. While the path may include periods of consolidation and volatility, the underlying trend remains firmly bullish with multiple technical frameworks projecting targets in the $145,000-$160,000 range by year-end 2025.
The current consolidation phase represents a healthy reset of momentum conditions rather than a trend reversal, creating an ideal technical foundation for Bitcoin's next major advance. With institutional adoption continuing to grow and technical indicators suggesting ample room for further appreciation, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to achieve new record highs in the coming months.
Discord.gg/CryptoIndicators
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Discord.gg/CryptoIndicators
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.