Bitcoin is currently undergoing a textbook supply-side shock, a rare phenomenon that historically precedes vertical price expansion. The latest on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that BTC exchange reserves have declined to an all-time low of just 2.3 million BTC, down from approximately 3.3 million BTC in mid-2022. This marks a 27% drop in immediately sellable supply — a net outflow of over 900,000 BTC from centralized exchanges.
This trend signifies that a substantial portion of BTC holders have opted for long-term self-custody, indicating growing conviction among market participants. When coins leave exchanges, they are typically sent to cold wallets for long-term storage, effectively removing them from the liquid supply pool. This restricts the ability for large-volume sell orders to materialize, especially during rapid price appreciation, thereby creating a supply squeeze.
In parallel, the price of Bitcoin has risen steadily, now trading around $119,000, with a clear break above prior resistance clusters in the $75K–$85K zone. The price has shown strong momentum divergence against exchange reserves, with reserves falling while price rallies, a bullish continuation signal. This decoupling indicates aggressive spot accumulation in the background, often a signal of institutional or whale-level interest.
Technically, BTC is also showing signs of a parabolic structure forming, supported by rising volume on upward moves and decreasing volume on retracements — confirming bullish market structure. Price action has respected key Fibonacci levels throughout the rally, and is currently pressing into a price discovery phase with minimal historical resistance above.
The macro backdrop further supports this narrative. With Bitcoin ETFs now live and facilitating regulated inflows, capital has increasingly favored BTC as a store-of-value hedge amid fiat debasement and monetary policy uncertainty. Combined with the 2024 halving, which cut block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, new supply issuance has halved, while demand remains elevated.
When supply dries up — as it clearly is — and demand persists or increases, price must equilibrate higher. This is a fundamental economic principle now playing out in real-time. The current environment mirrors late 2020 to early 2021, when a similar supply drop from exchanges preceded Bitcoin’s rally from $20K to $64K.
In summary, Bitcoin is entering a phase of constrained supply coupled with aggressive demand, pushing the asset toward price discovery territory. With on-chain reserves at historic lows, minimal overhead resistance, and strong macro alignment, the technicals now point to a structurally bullish setup.
If this trend persists, a sustained breakout beyond $120K could trigger a feedback loop of FOMO-driven spot bids, further deepening the supply shock and accelerating the next leg of the bull cycle.
This trend signifies that a substantial portion of BTC holders have opted for long-term self-custody, indicating growing conviction among market participants. When coins leave exchanges, they are typically sent to cold wallets for long-term storage, effectively removing them from the liquid supply pool. This restricts the ability for large-volume sell orders to materialize, especially during rapid price appreciation, thereby creating a supply squeeze.
In parallel, the price of Bitcoin has risen steadily, now trading around $119,000, with a clear break above prior resistance clusters in the $75K–$85K zone. The price has shown strong momentum divergence against exchange reserves, with reserves falling while price rallies, a bullish continuation signal. This decoupling indicates aggressive spot accumulation in the background, often a signal of institutional or whale-level interest.
Technically, BTC is also showing signs of a parabolic structure forming, supported by rising volume on upward moves and decreasing volume on retracements — confirming bullish market structure. Price action has respected key Fibonacci levels throughout the rally, and is currently pressing into a price discovery phase with minimal historical resistance above.
The macro backdrop further supports this narrative. With Bitcoin ETFs now live and facilitating regulated inflows, capital has increasingly favored BTC as a store-of-value hedge amid fiat debasement and monetary policy uncertainty. Combined with the 2024 halving, which cut block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, new supply issuance has halved, while demand remains elevated.
When supply dries up — as it clearly is — and demand persists or increases, price must equilibrate higher. This is a fundamental economic principle now playing out in real-time. The current environment mirrors late 2020 to early 2021, when a similar supply drop from exchanges preceded Bitcoin’s rally from $20K to $64K.
In summary, Bitcoin is entering a phase of constrained supply coupled with aggressive demand, pushing the asset toward price discovery territory. With on-chain reserves at historic lows, minimal overhead resistance, and strong macro alignment, the technicals now point to a structurally bullish setup.
If this trend persists, a sustained breakout beyond $120K could trigger a feedback loop of FOMO-driven spot bids, further deepening the supply shock and accelerating the next leg of the bull cycle.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.