🔥 CHFJPY TRADE PLAN 🔥
📅 Date: 22 July 2025
📋 Trade Plan Overview
Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
Swing Sell ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (82%) 4.0:1 Awaiting Confirmation
Guidance: Focus on Scenario A Primary Plan – high confluence bearish rejection zone after extended bullish run. Scenario B remains tactical, lower probability unless impulsive breakdown.
Total risk: 1.2% (standard swing).
Primary Trade Plan: Swing Sell
📈 Market Bias & Trade Type
Bias: Bearish
Trade Type: Reversal - Post-Parabolic Exhaustion
🔰 Confidence Level
⭐⭐⭐⭐ (82%)
Reason:
D1 parabolic exhaustion + rejection wicks.
H4 strong bearish engulfing.
H1 impulsive breakdown from 185.40 zone.
Volume spike on H1 selling.
Fib 61.8% rejection.
Sentiment stretched overbought JPY weakness.
Breakdown:
Price Structure: 30%
Candlestick Patterns: 20%
Volume / Fib / RSI: 22%
Macro / Sentiment: 10%
📌 Status
Awaiting Confirmation
📍 Entry Zones
🟥 Primary Sell Zone:
184.45 – 184.75 (H4 bearish order block + imbalance + prior rejection)
👉 Status: Waiting for rejection wick / bearish engulfing / LTF breakdown.
🟧 Secondary Sell Zone:
185.20 – 185.45 (H4 final supply zone; riskier short).
❗ Stop Loss
185.65 (above secondary zone wick + structure + 1.2x ATR).
🎯 Take Profit Targets
🥇 TP1: 183.10 (H1 imbalance fill; 125 pips; ~2.0:1 R:R)
🥈 TP2: 182.20 (liquidity pool, structure target; 210 pips; ~3.5:1 R:R)
🥉 TP3: 180.90 (deeper swing pullback; H4 demand zone; ~4.8:1 R:R) – Optional trail.
📏 Risk:Reward
TP1: 2.0:1
TP2: 3.5:1
TP3: 4.8:1
🧠 Management Strategy
Risk 1.2% of $[Account] ($[Amount], [Lots] lots).
Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hit.
Close 60% at TP1, 30% at TP2, leave 10% runner for TP3 (trail SL).
If impulsive bullish reclaim above 185.00, exit manually.
Portfolio Risk capped at 3% max open trades.
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
H1 bearish engulfing OR rejection wick in primary zone.
H1/H4 volume spike during London or NY session.
RSI divergence (optional).
No major JPY risk events upcoming.
⏳ Validity
H4 Swing: Valid for 2–4 days (expires 26 July 2025).
❌ Invalidation
4H candle close above 185.65
Bullish BOS on H1 beyond secondary zone.
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
COT: CHF neutral / JPY oversold.
DXY: Rangebound.
Retail: 77% buyers CHFJPY (contrarian bearish bias).
Cross-Pair: EURJPY and AUDJPY showing topping signs.
Cross-Market: Risk sentiment fragile (SP500 fading).
Macro: No major CHF/JPY news.
Sentiment Score: +7/10 bearish CHFJPY.
📋 Final Trade Summary
Sell CHFJPY targeting reversal after extended bullish run.
Focus is on rejection from 184.45–184.75 with strict SL above 185.65.
Patience mandatory for confirmation candlesticks.
Aggressive scaling only if H1 breaks down from current price.
📅 Date: 22 July 2025
📋 Trade Plan Overview
Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
Swing Sell ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (82%) 4.0:1 Awaiting Confirmation
Guidance: Focus on Scenario A Primary Plan – high confluence bearish rejection zone after extended bullish run. Scenario B remains tactical, lower probability unless impulsive breakdown.
Total risk: 1.2% (standard swing).
Primary Trade Plan: Swing Sell
📈 Market Bias & Trade Type
Bias: Bearish
Trade Type: Reversal - Post-Parabolic Exhaustion
🔰 Confidence Level
⭐⭐⭐⭐ (82%)
Reason:
D1 parabolic exhaustion + rejection wicks.
H4 strong bearish engulfing.
H1 impulsive breakdown from 185.40 zone.
Volume spike on H1 selling.
Fib 61.8% rejection.
Sentiment stretched overbought JPY weakness.
Breakdown:
Price Structure: 30%
Candlestick Patterns: 20%
Volume / Fib / RSI: 22%
Macro / Sentiment: 10%
📌 Status
Awaiting Confirmation
📍 Entry Zones
🟥 Primary Sell Zone:
184.45 – 184.75 (H4 bearish order block + imbalance + prior rejection)
👉 Status: Waiting for rejection wick / bearish engulfing / LTF breakdown.
🟧 Secondary Sell Zone:
185.20 – 185.45 (H4 final supply zone; riskier short).
❗ Stop Loss
185.65 (above secondary zone wick + structure + 1.2x ATR).
🎯 Take Profit Targets
🥇 TP1: 183.10 (H1 imbalance fill; 125 pips; ~2.0:1 R:R)
🥈 TP2: 182.20 (liquidity pool, structure target; 210 pips; ~3.5:1 R:R)
🥉 TP3: 180.90 (deeper swing pullback; H4 demand zone; ~4.8:1 R:R) – Optional trail.
📏 Risk:Reward
TP1: 2.0:1
TP2: 3.5:1
TP3: 4.8:1
🧠 Management Strategy
Risk 1.2% of $[Account] ($[Amount], [Lots] lots).
Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hit.
Close 60% at TP1, 30% at TP2, leave 10% runner for TP3 (trail SL).
If impulsive bullish reclaim above 185.00, exit manually.
Portfolio Risk capped at 3% max open trades.
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
H1 bearish engulfing OR rejection wick in primary zone.
H1/H4 volume spike during London or NY session.
RSI divergence (optional).
No major JPY risk events upcoming.
⏳ Validity
H4 Swing: Valid for 2–4 days (expires 26 July 2025).
❌ Invalidation
4H candle close above 185.65
Bullish BOS on H1 beyond secondary zone.
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
COT: CHF neutral / JPY oversold.
DXY: Rangebound.
Retail: 77% buyers CHFJPY (contrarian bearish bias).
Cross-Pair: EURJPY and AUDJPY showing topping signs.
Cross-Market: Risk sentiment fragile (SP500 fading).
Macro: No major CHF/JPY news.
Sentiment Score: +7/10 bearish CHFJPY.
📋 Final Trade Summary
Sell CHFJPY targeting reversal after extended bullish run.
Focus is on rejection from 184.45–184.75 with strict SL above 185.65.
Patience mandatory for confirmation candlesticks.
Aggressive scaling only if H1 breaks down from current price.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.