- I'm taking contrarian stance on 
CNC as fears are overdone.
-CNC has cash in hand around14 billion and market cap is around 13.5 billion.
- I call bullshit on the market. Math isn't mathing.
- Company isn't going bankrupt. There are headwinds but they will navigate the headwinds and return capital to investors.
- This is not a startup coming out of no where. It has 2 decades of experience navigating difficult times than this in the past be it GFC, Dot Com crash, Covid crash or other bureaucratic hurdles.
CNC as fears are overdone. -
CNC has cash in hand around14 billion and market cap is around 13.5 billion.- I call bullshit on the market. Math isn't mathing.
- Company isn't going bankrupt. There are headwinds but they will navigate the headwinds and return capital to investors.
- This is not a startup coming out of no where. It has 2 decades of experience navigating difficult times than this in the past be it GFC, Dot Com crash, Covid crash or other bureaucratic hurdles.
Note
In a bear-case worst scenario (policy cuts plus execution missteps leading to near-breakeven profits), perhaps the stock could drift lower into the low $20s or high teens – but that would imply near bankruptcy valuations for a company still doing ~$150B in revenueNote
- P/S is 0.08 - Better than feared report will lead to huge short covering rally.
Note
- There huge risk to the upside rather than the downside as market participants are too pessimistic and pricing CNC as if it is going bankrupt. - Please note that
CNC makes real revenue and net income in billions. The headwinds are just challenges they will have to navigate which they most likely are going to address via hiking premiums. Note
- Closing above 7 SMA would be nice :)Note
- Sold pre market at 29.xx for 5% was expecting overreaction by market participants- Bought back
CNC at 27.xx after 7% pull backNote
Implied volatility is +/-9% for tomorrow's earningsNote
The way market is selling CNC they need to absolutely come tomorrow and tell that they are going out of business. So many cry babies in the markets.Note
$23.26 should serve as some support if you look at the declines levels on the left.Note
Glad that I had deep in the money covered calls for my shares to protect from the downside and switched to long dated call option for enjoying any upside Note
CEO calmed investors and assured long term fiscal targets in tact. Repricing strategy 2026 is coming
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.