📰 CoreWeave (CRWV) — Technical & Macro Update
Ticker: CRWV | Chart Timeframe: 30-min | Current Price: $115.62
Sector: AI Infrastructure / Data Centers
Date: July 26, 2025
⚡ Market Recap
CoreWeave was in the spotlight this week following two key developments:
🏗️ $7 Billion Lease Deal: Entered two 15-year AI data center agreements with Applied Digital (APLD), expected to generate $7B in top-line revenue. This solidifies long-term client infrastructure demand and recurring income.
💸 Debt Load Grows: Issued $1.75B in 9% bonds, raising concerns over capital intensity and financing strategy. Total projected capex through 2025 is $20–23B, requiring significant additional funding.
📉 HSBC Slashes Price Target: HSBC initiated coverage with a sell rating and an aggressive price target of $32 — a 72% downside from current levels. The firm cited:
Unsustainable customer concentration (Microsoft makes up ~60% of revenue)
High financial leverage
Risk of multiple compression as AI hype cools
Despite bullish sentiment from lease news, the downgrade weighed on investor confidence, pushing shares into a tight range.
🔍 Chart Technical Outlook
Structure Summary:
Price has compressed under a descending trendline
Trading between $114.00 (support) and $118.50 (resistance)
Price action is setting up for a breakout or breakdown
✅ Bullish Setup
Breakout Level: $118.50+
Short-Term Targets: $122 → $126 → $130
Tailwinds:
Long-term lease revenue visibility
Strong Q1 growth (+420% YoY)
Core partners: OpenAI, Mistral, Microsoft
❌ Bearish Breakdown
Breakdown Level: $114.00
Targets: $110 → $106.50
Headwinds:
$12B+ in debt, rising interest costs
Analyst downgrade to $32 price target
Customer concentration and margin risk
🧠 Strategic Takeaway
CoreWeave is perched at a critical level. While bulls are encouraged by long-term deals and market share in AI compute, bears are becoming louder following HSBC’s stark warning.
Play the breakout—but know the macro backdrop. A move above $118.50 opens upside, but failure below $114 could confirm bears' thesis.
Ticker: CRWV | Chart Timeframe: 30-min | Current Price: $115.62
Sector: AI Infrastructure / Data Centers
Date: July 26, 2025
⚡ Market Recap
CoreWeave was in the spotlight this week following two key developments:
🏗️ $7 Billion Lease Deal: Entered two 15-year AI data center agreements with Applied Digital (APLD), expected to generate $7B in top-line revenue. This solidifies long-term client infrastructure demand and recurring income.
💸 Debt Load Grows: Issued $1.75B in 9% bonds, raising concerns over capital intensity and financing strategy. Total projected capex through 2025 is $20–23B, requiring significant additional funding.
📉 HSBC Slashes Price Target: HSBC initiated coverage with a sell rating and an aggressive price target of $32 — a 72% downside from current levels. The firm cited:
Unsustainable customer concentration (Microsoft makes up ~60% of revenue)
High financial leverage
Risk of multiple compression as AI hype cools
Despite bullish sentiment from lease news, the downgrade weighed on investor confidence, pushing shares into a tight range.
🔍 Chart Technical Outlook
Structure Summary:
Price has compressed under a descending trendline
Trading between $114.00 (support) and $118.50 (resistance)
Price action is setting up for a breakout or breakdown
✅ Bullish Setup
Breakout Level: $118.50+
Short-Term Targets: $122 → $126 → $130
Tailwinds:
Long-term lease revenue visibility
Strong Q1 growth (+420% YoY)
Core partners: OpenAI, Mistral, Microsoft
❌ Bearish Breakdown
Breakdown Level: $114.00
Targets: $110 → $106.50
Headwinds:
$12B+ in debt, rising interest costs
Analyst downgrade to $32 price target
Customer concentration and margin risk
🧠 Strategic Takeaway
CoreWeave is perched at a critical level. While bulls are encouraged by long-term deals and market share in AI compute, bears are becoming louder following HSBC’s stark warning.
Play the breakout—but know the macro backdrop. A move above $118.50 opens upside, but failure below $114 could confirm bears' thesis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.