📰 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) — Technical & Macro Update
Ticker: DECK | Chart Timeframe: 30‑minute | Current Price: ~$117
Sector: Footwear & Apparel
Date: July 26, 2025
⚡ Market Recap
Deckers made waves this week with a strong mix of earnings momentum and analyst reactions:
👟 Blowout Q1 Earnings: Revenue came in at $965M, up ~17% year-over-year. Hoka grew 20% and UGG grew 19%, with international sales surging nearly 50%. EPS of $0.93 smashed expectations. Management issued strong guidance: $1.38–$1.42B revenue for FY and EPS between $1.50–$1.55.
📈 Stock Surge Followed by Pullback: Shares spiked over 12% intraday after the earnings release, but cooled off shortly after, reflecting some hesitation or profit-taking. Volume doubled the 50-day average, showing strong investor attention.
⚠️ Price Target Downgrade from Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs cut its target from $90 to $87, maintaining a Sell rating. Their concern lies in margin pressure from tariff exposure in Deckers' overseas production chain.
🧾 Divergent Analyst Views: TD Cowen raised its target to $154, while other analysts remain neutral to bearish with targets ranging between $100 and $137. The Street’s average 12-month target hovers around $123, though the lowest target now sits at $87.
🔍 Technical Breakdown (Chart Overview)
Price Structure:
Price rallied into a key resistance zone after earnings and is currently consolidating just below $118.
A broad consolidation range has formed between ~$105 support and ~$132 resistance.
Chart suggests the formation of a potential double-bottom reversal pattern, anchored by the $95–$105 zone.
✅ Bullish Case
Trigger: Break and close above $132–134
Target Zones: $150 → $160 → $182
Supporting Factors:
Hoka and UGG continue to post record growth
International expansion is offsetting soft U.S. sales
Solid earnings guidance and positive revisions from bulls like TD Cowen
❌ Bearish Case
Trigger: Breakdown below $105
Target Zones: $95 → $87
Risks:
Exposure to tariffs and global supply chain constraints
Sluggish domestic sales and brand saturation
Goldman’s downgrade reflecting downside institutional risk
🧠 Strategic Takeaway
Deckers is at a technical inflection point. The recent earnings beat lends credibility to the bullish case, but macro headwinds and analyst skepticism inject caution. Price is trapped below resistance, and traders should await confirmation of breakout or breakdown.
Watch for a clean breakout above $132 or breakdown below $105 before committing to directional bias. Volatility and volume are elevated — trade setups could trigger fast.
📊 Summary Table
Outlook Key Price Trigger Potential Targets Key Drivers
Bullish Break above $132–134 $150 → $160 → $182 Hoka/UGG momentum, strong earnings, analyst upgrades
Bearish Fall below $105 $95 → $87 Tariff exposure, U.S. softness, Goldman’s $87 price target
Ticker: DECK | Chart Timeframe: 30‑minute | Current Price: ~$117
Sector: Footwear & Apparel
Date: July 26, 2025
⚡ Market Recap
Deckers made waves this week with a strong mix of earnings momentum and analyst reactions:
👟 Blowout Q1 Earnings: Revenue came in at $965M, up ~17% year-over-year. Hoka grew 20% and UGG grew 19%, with international sales surging nearly 50%. EPS of $0.93 smashed expectations. Management issued strong guidance: $1.38–$1.42B revenue for FY and EPS between $1.50–$1.55.
📈 Stock Surge Followed by Pullback: Shares spiked over 12% intraday after the earnings release, but cooled off shortly after, reflecting some hesitation or profit-taking. Volume doubled the 50-day average, showing strong investor attention.
⚠️ Price Target Downgrade from Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs cut its target from $90 to $87, maintaining a Sell rating. Their concern lies in margin pressure from tariff exposure in Deckers' overseas production chain.
🧾 Divergent Analyst Views: TD Cowen raised its target to $154, while other analysts remain neutral to bearish with targets ranging between $100 and $137. The Street’s average 12-month target hovers around $123, though the lowest target now sits at $87.
🔍 Technical Breakdown (Chart Overview)
Price Structure:
Price rallied into a key resistance zone after earnings and is currently consolidating just below $118.
A broad consolidation range has formed between ~$105 support and ~$132 resistance.
Chart suggests the formation of a potential double-bottom reversal pattern, anchored by the $95–$105 zone.
✅ Bullish Case
Trigger: Break and close above $132–134
Target Zones: $150 → $160 → $182
Supporting Factors:
Hoka and UGG continue to post record growth
International expansion is offsetting soft U.S. sales
Solid earnings guidance and positive revisions from bulls like TD Cowen
❌ Bearish Case
Trigger: Breakdown below $105
Target Zones: $95 → $87
Risks:
Exposure to tariffs and global supply chain constraints
Sluggish domestic sales and brand saturation
Goldman’s downgrade reflecting downside institutional risk
🧠 Strategic Takeaway
Deckers is at a technical inflection point. The recent earnings beat lends credibility to the bullish case, but macro headwinds and analyst skepticism inject caution. Price is trapped below resistance, and traders should await confirmation of breakout or breakdown.
Watch for a clean breakout above $132 or breakdown below $105 before committing to directional bias. Volatility and volume are elevated — trade setups could trigger fast.
📊 Summary Table
Outlook Key Price Trigger Potential Targets Key Drivers
Bullish Break above $132–134 $150 → $160 → $182 Hoka/UGG momentum, strong earnings, analyst upgrades
Bearish Fall below $105 $95 → $87 Tariff exposure, U.S. softness, Goldman’s $87 price target
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.