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Germany´s DAX Likely To Start A New Bull Market

Yesterdays Dutch Election might be a trigger to end a crisis started 10 years ago in 2007. Economic Fundamentals all over Europe improving also.

Same time there are some indications, that European-Citizens now more believing in the European Union and turning away from populist parties.

After the BREXIT the overall sentiment for EU, the EURO and European Stockmarkets had been highly bearish.

Stockmarket Charts in Europe showing now that a new bull market might have started. Silent and not mentioned by the majority of traders. Fears that the European Union might fail might be overdone. If ever the elections in France, Germany and Italy in the next 12 month are going to confirm that European-Citizens backing the EU than stockmarkets will react to this with further gains. For sure.

Note

March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

Note

Comment: MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-closes-lower,-after-healthcare-vote-delay-468437

Note

Comment: MAR 24 2017: Trump demands support in do-or-die Friday vote on healthcare plan
investing.com/news/politics-news/high-stakes-for-trump-in-vote-on-healthcare-plan-468257

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MAR 24 2017: CBOE Intraday Put Call Ratio 1,34. last time this high number occured U.S. Stockmarkets started a sharp up move on high momentum some days later.

Note

For Trump, it was the lost art of the deal

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MAR 28 2017: JPMorgan: A Le Pen loss will be a win for European equities

Quote:

If far right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen loses the election, it will spur a "significant" surge of inflows into European stocks, JPMorgan said in a note Monday.

How significant?

JPMorgan estimated that a Le Pen loss will see at least 10 percent of assets under management flow back into the region's stock markets. It noted that since the beginning of 2016, around $100 billion has flowed out of the segment, according to EPFR data, marking up a loss of nearly 10 percent of assets under management. "We believe that these flows at least could come back into the region, should political uncertainty fade, in addition to any potential new net inflows," JPMorgan said. Some opinion polls have shown that Le Pen, leader of the far right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant National Front party, could be a top pick in the first round of voting in France's presidential election on April 23.
A healthy majority of analysts and experts believe Le Pen, who wants to pull France out of the euro zone, won't win the second round of voting on May 7 if she makes it past the first. But fears abound over a potential dark horse Le Pen victory, in line with political surprises such as Brexit and Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win. That's spurred concerns of a potential French exit from the euro azone, dubbed Frexit, and even a possible breakup of the bloc. While JPMorgan noted that any "Le Pen loss" lap of inflows was likely to boost the euro, it didn't expect that would weigh on European stocks, which have benefited from a weaker currency. "We think a stronger euro would not be an impediment for regional equities and, in fact, believe the euro will turn positively correlated to euro zone equities, no matter the election outcome," it said. It noted that the euro is typically seen as a vote of confidence in the region. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/28/jpmorgan-a-le-pen-loss-will-be-a-win-for-european-equities.html

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Comment: MAR 29 2017: After Hours DAX 12.240 - just 150 point missing for a new All Time High.

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APR 04 2017: Consolidation pattern above a major bearish reversal pattern, wich the DAX didn´t care about.

Before the upper trendline was broken, the "rising wedge pattern" was widely discussed by the bears. Now above this pattern (what is a clear and very strong bullish sign) this discussion disappeared. This is once more clear evidence that the majority of traders arn´t discussing unbiased technical analysis. Expect a new all time high for the DAX to come soon.

Note

Comment: APR 06 2017- Europe, Êconomy
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/06/ecbs-draghi-says-monetary-policy-stance-is-still-appropriate.html

Note

APR 10 2017 Euro zone investor morale shrugs off French election fears

Quote: BERLIN, April 10 (Reuters) - Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved more than expected in April to remain at the highest level in almost 10 years on Monday, shrugging off risks linked to a closely watched presidential election in France. The Frankfurt-based Sentix research group's euro zone index rose to 23.9 points, its highest level since August 2007. That exceeded the consensus forecast of 21.0 in a Reuters poll of analysts.The index last month rose to 20.7 from 17.4 in February as concern dissipated that global political risks could end an economic upswing.
"The euro zone has emancipated itself from global tendencies, as the assessment for other world regions is by no means unequivocal," Sentix said in a statement.
"The euro zone continues to make further economic progress.
Before the important presidential election in France, the current situation index for the euro zone economy rose to the highest level since January 2008," it said.
France will elect a new president in a two-round ballot in April and May. Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is expected to contest a run-off against far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen. Her plans to ditch the euro and hold a referendum on European Union membership have spooked many investors, who fear a "Frexit" after British voters chose last year to leave the EU. Sentix said the current situation sub-index for the euro zone was 28.8, up from 23.8 in March. An index tracking Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, rose to 35.3 in April from 34.1 in March. "The strong euro zone, which has been fired up by an extremely expansive monetary policy, has not failed to leave its mark on the strongest euro economy," Sentix said, suggesting Germany was benefiting from a recovery in the currency bloc. By contrast, the indices for the United States and Japan fell. Sentix linked the fall in the world's largest economy to U.S. President Donald Trump. "The president talks a lot, but his messages are reaching investors increasingly less," Sentix wrote. "Trump has become a killer of perspectives."
U.S. stocks have risen to record highs since Trump's election after he vowed to remove some of the regulations introduced after the financial crisis and to boost spending on the military and infrastructure.
Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-investor-morale-shrugs-off-french-election-fears-472921

Note

APR 12 2017- Fitch changes its mind: Trump isn't a threat to the world economy after all
Quote:

- In February, Fitch warned that Trump posed a danger to global economic stability.

- In April, the ratings agency says the president's pro-growth agenda would push GDP more than expected.

Concerns linger over protectionism and debt, but the report was a major change from the previous warnings.
cnbc.com/2017/04/11/fitch-flips-trump-isnt-a-threat-to-the-world-economy-after-all.html

Note

APR 15 2017: "The Art of Deal" - the question is, who maked this deal?

China could had used Kim Jon un as troublemaker to get a good trade deal as trouble shooter. A political masterpiece, made in China.
cnbc.com/2017/04/13/us-china-pressure-should-limit-north-korean-nuclear-threat-analysts-say.html

Note

APR 17 2017 - Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies. Source: reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-missile-idUSKBN17H0NL

Note

Comment: APR 17 2017: China beats GDP forecast
investing.com/news/economy-news/china-first-quarter-gdp-grows-6.9-percent-year-on-year,-better-than-expectations-474575

Note

APR 17 2017 - China Roars Back to Lift Global Outlook as U.S. Consumer Weakens

- Economy on pace to power one-third of global growth in 2017
- Government makes progress in restraining runaway credit growth

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-17/china-roars-back-to-lift-global-outlook-as-u-s-consumer-weakens

Note

APR 17 2017 U.S. stocks shrug off global tensions and eye M&A
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/u.s.-stocks-shrug-off-global-tensions-and-eye-m-a-474690

Note

APR 17 2017 Wall Street gains as focus shifts to earnings
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-dip-on-soft-u.s.-data%2C-geopolitical-risks-474631

Note

APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:
Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source: thehill.com/policy/finance/329159-mnuchin-tax-reform-before-august-highly-aggressive-to-not-realistic

Note

APR 18 2017: Geopolitics vs. underlying fundamentals:

- British PM May calls for early election to strengthen Brexit hand
investing.com/news/economy-news/british-pm-may-calls-for-early-election-to-strengthen-brexit-hand-474893

vs.

U.S. industrial production rises in line with expectations in March
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/u.s.-industrial-production-rises-in-line-with-expectations-in-march-474992

IMF raises global growth forecast, warns against protectionism
investing.com/news/economy-news/imf-raises-global-growth-forecast,-warns-against-protectionism-474985

Note

APR 20 2017 - The market suddenly doubts the Fed will raise rates twice more this year
Traders assign just a 41 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year.
Goldman economist Jan Hatzius counters that concerns over the economy now will abate and allow the Fed to fulfill its projections for 2017
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/20/the-market-suddenly-doubts-the-fed-will-raise-rates-twice-more-this-year.html

Note

APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times
businessinsider.de/trump-trade-merkel-germany-eu-2017-4?r=US&IR=T

Note

APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease

Note

Trump agrees 'not to terminate NAFTA at this time'
edition.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/trump-nafta/index.html

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German manufacturing growth near six-year high in April: PMI m.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/german-manufacturing-growth-near-six-year-high-in-april:-pmi-479204

Note

U.S. factory orders rise; core capital goods orders revised up
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/u.s.-factory-orders-rise

Note

Exclusive: Portugal says economy growing faster than forecast investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive:-portugal-says-economy-growing-faster-than-forecast-488109

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Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macron
reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKCN18E07E

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Comment: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predicts
YouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-majority-poll-election-2017-latest-labour-hung-parliament-seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html

Note

The British election is in 3 days — and the polls are getting a lot closer
vox.com/world/2017/6/5/15739222/uk-election-jeremy-corbyn-labour-surge

Trade closed: stop reached

All European Long Trades are closed on profit taking. For additional information please click on the chart and read further up dates.

Major Negativ Event: Gemany's Carmakers Dragging Down The DAX

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