- Analyst estimates are too optimistic for 
DUOL
- AI risk to disruption is very high for a language learning app likeDUOL
- Foundational multi-modal LLMs can easily do text to speech and vice versa
- Vibe coding is not a direct threat but it definitely helps those who know what they are doing. It can make android or IOS developer more productive that they could easily launch a free variant or undercut the pricingDUOL charges.
- Even if we consider that analyst estimates forDUOL would be met or beat.
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
EPS% | 61.07% | 47.13% | 38.16%
Any company growing EPS > 50% deserves a forward p/e of 50. I would agree with it if there's no risk to disruption and there is a defendable moat. But giving benefit of doubt to analyst and bulls.
Fair stock value with forward p/e of 50
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
Stock Price | $162.5 | $239 | $330
But if someone is willing to pay 100 times forward earning then you must be smoking some good pot.
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
Stock Price | $325 | $478 | $661
DUOL- AI risk to disruption is very high for a language learning app like
DUOL- Foundational multi-modal LLMs can easily do text to speech and vice versa
- Vibe coding is not a direct threat but it definitely helps those who know what they are doing. It can make android or IOS developer more productive that they could easily launch a free variant or undercut the pricing
DUOL charges.- Even if we consider that analyst estimates for
DUOL would be met or beat. Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
EPS% | 61.07% | 47.13% | 38.16%
Any company growing EPS > 50% deserves a forward p/e of 50. I would agree with it if there's no risk to disruption and there is a defendable moat. But giving benefit of doubt to analyst and bulls.
Fair stock value with forward p/e of 50
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
Stock Price | $162.5 | $239 | $330
But if someone is willing to pay 100 times forward earning then you must be smoking some good pot.
EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61
Stock Price | $325 | $478 | $661
Note
- DUOL doesn't need 830 employees to run their company especially in the age of AI where lot of manual work, content curation could be done via AI- Only bullish case scenario I could think for
DUOL is if they reduce # of employees or cut down operational expenses given most of the work in their company could be done via AINote
- Only way it has upside potential is if people think it deserves a forward p/e of 100 and there's no risk by AI to the business model and Duolingo will continue to grow massively for the next 3 years.- Note that, multi model LLMs are getting better as time progresses.
Note
- 100× forward earnings can be justified—but only if Duolingo continues executing exceptionally well, sustaining ~35–40% annual revenue and EPS growth, and expanding monetization via AI-powered offerings.- If growth falters—even modestly—the valuation could retrace sharply. Investors buying at 100× are banking on a multi-year compounding story.
I'm not a believer of this rosy outlook.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.