When Conviction Fails: Apex Rejection, Hidden Redistribution, and the Illusion of Demand
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you're tapping in from. Now, as always, I’m not here to waste your time with unnecessary waffle. Let’s get straight into it and unpack this mess step-by-step.
THE APEX REJECTION | MORE THAN JUST A WICK
So picking up from last week's update, we find ourselves right at the crossroads, and not the romantic kind either. What we’re looking at right now so far, is a clean yet 100% conclusive rejection from the apex of a key macro structure.
This isn’t just any level. This is the intersection of vertical momentum and horizontal memory, the apex of a triangle that’s been forming for months. This is where bullish intent was supposed to hold, supposed to assert dominance, but instead, what did we get? A strong push into resistance, a failure to fix above it, followed by exhaustion and signs of institutional unloading.
Now, to the untrained eye, this may look like a pullback, or even a healthy correction. But we’re not here to look at charts with retail goggles. We’re here to track the true intent behind the price action, and if you know your schematics, this is screaming redistribution. And not just any redistribution, the kind that happens right before the market changes its personality.
WHERE ARE WE IN THE SCHEMATIC?
If we overlay Wyckoff logic on top of this structure, it's very clear:
We’ve had our PSY (preliminary support).
Followed by a spring, a shakeout, and a fake rally.
Now we’re dancing around what appears to be the UTAD (upthrust after distribution) — but weaker.
This isn’t classic distribution, it’s redistribution masked in macro confusion.
Here’s the thingthis range isn’t just price consolidation, it’s behavioural conditioning. This long, choppy sideways movement is designed to wear out both bulls and bears, making them question their bias, mismanage their risk, and either overstay or exit too early.
The market is methodical, not random. These candles aren’t accidents, they are footprints of algorithmic trap setting, and right now, it looks like the net is about to close.
VOLUME TELLS THE TRUTH
Let’s not forget volume. Look at the weekly volume through this recent push:
Decreasing volume on the rallies,
Higher volume on the red closes,
And multiple spikes that failed to carry price past resistance.
That’s your dead giveaway. You don’t need to be a wizard, just follow the clues. Price is being pushed, not lifted. Demand isn’t stepping in, liquidity is being removed. This isn’t smart money accumulation, if confirmed by the endd of this week, this most recent move up cout be doing of smart money unloading, Quietly and Efficiently.
THE MARKDOWN IS PRIMED
Let’s now address the elephant in the room, the range low and point C of the triangle on the 4H.
That’s where liquidity is sitting.
That’s where the market’s next objective lies.
We’ve now failed to reclaim the apex, the wick was slapped down, and unless something significant shifts, the next logical move is to sweep that C point, take out the emotional support, and either:
Tap into true demand (if it exists), or
Begin the cascade toward the final green demand zones between 2,150–2,070, which we marked weeks ago.
And don’t forget, this sweep may not be clean. We could get a fakeout bounce mid-range — enough to bait in more longs, only to roll over again.
PSYCHOLOGICAL LAYER
What’s happening here isn’t just technical, it’s emotional warfare. This entire range has been one long gaslight for the average trader. Between the failed breakouts, failed breakdowns, and chaotic intraday behaviour, retail has been turned into liquidity.
And if you’re still trying to long blindly at the top of this, hoping for 3k ETH without a confirmed structure reclaim, then respectfully, you’re the product right now.
Coming next in Part 2:
A full breakdown of the 4H macro setup
Analysis of the internal range mechanics
Recalculated fib zones
Where the liquidity pockets are
What the most probable path is short, medium, and long-term
Stay tuned — I’ll keep the flow coherent, structured, and aggressive. No fluff. No hopium. Just structure, psychology, and execution.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.