Sub Idea EURUSD Quick Short

Events leading up to this idea are detailed in the linked Idea if you'd like to catch up on the story 😊

Looking at a potential short oppurtunity off the 1.092 area. It's a key 4 hour level and we have used it a few times before, so it is well defined.

I expect price to drift up to the 4 hour level, reject, possibly retest close by and then head down (more od a "cruise down") into the demand level shown in the green box, where I will target for this and then go back to the other idea way of thinking to go long again.

I will go ahead and set a limit entry, looking at it once more. as reaching ove may not neccisarily break the idea (stop sweep) but it would change the idea slightly. If it does go, I want to stop the trade at the demand zone, and make sure that is used for the final push through, and finishes a high low pattern of price building up.

We have the recent end of the month/week come out to get down there, back up again at the same angle the third time, and now stalled. Judging by the very strong rallys, I would imagine there is still way more buying at the demand level than we need to reach higher. I will just join the worn down sellers to go back to that level again to try and turn the market, but I have no faith left short beyond 1.0823....

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Basically, try and set an entry in a general obvious stop zone, and adapt if another entry shows itself

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One other "pattern" trait.

This is the infamous V everyone says is explosive.... It is, but not in a typical way.

I've seen this pattern over and over on shorter time frames for this pair, and every time, it goes down before exploding back up.... Very likely to be how it goes here too

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Price is following a channel up (The strong down and srtong up was the days rollover, those don't count, x + -x = 0)

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If price comes back up but starts to fall before breaking where it's coming from now, that's the entry

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I suspect a lot of sellers went short in the doji (5 minute) when the short trend line broke. So the stop run should be coming soon....

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5/15 RSI divergence, should have the stop run soon into the level then reject (RSI probability)

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Without a stop run, but a strong reject from 1.0907, entry can be taken any time with stop above the 1.0912, as there would be sufficient selling to keep it down I would think, and 1.0907 has been heavy on attention

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If we drop below the sub level where price is showing now, even a retest won't make a good entry, as being this far off the 4 hr level, we don't have much R left for a good entry. 1/0907, into the level, or wait for the demand zone for the long to continue

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Going to set a limit at 1.0907, stop at 1.0914, expecting the retest on the short term trendline that began the down motion. Small stop, because if that breaks, it will continue to the entry left at the 4 hour level. Setting alerts, and both have targets at 1.084.

Stepping away but will be checking in. I think it is possible we can just continue to drift down. If that happens, both orders will be canceled, but will give some time for the entry to possibly happen first from above. 1:1 is a rather large range for anything in between these two major areas.

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So won't be taking trades from any activity if not at these key points of interest

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Starting to look like a 4 hr level challenge coming, removed the lower 1.0907 entry, as too much time passed and that line has moved up, Watch for the next rejection (major) and then maybe enter. Tight levels all in this area, so could come from any number of stopping places

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If we don't make the challenge, then it will more than likely be a slow grind into the demand zone below until we reach it

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Pushing for the stops, original order still in place (short tool)

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Strong show of force, selling pressure is present, wait for the entry, if it's missed, enter with stop at just over the high, after the stop running slows up

Trade active

Market short taken 1.09036

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Stop set 1.0918

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped but still have the other original entry

Trade active

Short tool entry filled

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Volatility is coming down, but the price is not yet. If the stop gets hit, looking at everything new since the start of the idea, we could be going long off the 4 hour level re-test, but I still think that demand zone will come into play soon, so that could be a re-test fail too, but chances are changing the ideas probabilities, may have a new situation after I wake up

Going to let this one ride out to target, Heading to bed, so won't be updating unless it stops and I'm up to hear the alert

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Starting to come down now, giving s slight confirm the trade is good to hold.

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped by news, -15 pips

ForexStoryteller

Related publications

EURUSD Long all the way

by ForexStoryteller

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