The EUR/USD pair remains firmly within a prevailing downtrend, characterized by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This bearish momentum has resulted in the formation of several significant Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) on the 4-hour chart, which now act as potential resistance zones on any pullbacks. These FVGs not only coincide with important technical structures, but also align with key Fibonacci retracement levels, adding confluence to their strength. In the analysis below, we’ll walk through these zones and discuss the most probable scenarios based on the current price action.
First resistance zone
The first major resistance lies within the 4-hour FVG in the 1.1600 to 1.1650 region. This zone coincides with the golden pocket, which is formed between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels. This overlap strengthens the likelihood of price reacting bearishly here, should the market manage to retrace upwards into this area. Given the strong downward momentum, this level may be enough to trigger a continuation to the downside, making it a critical area to monitor for rejection signals.
Second resistance zone
The second key resistance is found in the upper 4-hour FVG, ranging from 1.1690 to 1.1750. This zone aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and marks a former support zone that has now been broken, indicating a potential structure break. Price returning to this level would be retesting the underside of broken market structure, which often acts as a powerful resistance area. Given this, a deeper pullback into this region may serve as a trap for late buyers and potentially offer a high-probability short setup.
Bullish bounce area
On the bullish side, the most relevant support is currently found within the 1-hour FVG that was formed last Friday, during the release of the U.S. unemployment rate data. This zone is positioned below current price levels and is likely to act as a strong short-term demand area. It is reasonable to anticipate a bullish reaction from this zone if the market retraces downward, making it a favorable area to seek long opportunities for a potential move into the higher resistance levels described above.
Final thoughts
While the broader trend remains bearish, short-term bullish bounces are likely within defined fair value gaps. Traders should keep a close eye on the 1-hour FVG for possible long entries, while watching the 4-hour FVGs, particularly those aligning with key Fibonacci levels, for signs of bearish continuation. If resistance holds firm, the EUR/USD could resume its downtrend, but any structural breaks or sustained closes above these levels would challenge that view. As always, price action around these zones should guide the final decision-making.
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First resistance zone
The first major resistance lies within the 4-hour FVG in the 1.1600 to 1.1650 region. This zone coincides with the golden pocket, which is formed between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels. This overlap strengthens the likelihood of price reacting bearishly here, should the market manage to retrace upwards into this area. Given the strong downward momentum, this level may be enough to trigger a continuation to the downside, making it a critical area to monitor for rejection signals.
Second resistance zone
The second key resistance is found in the upper 4-hour FVG, ranging from 1.1690 to 1.1750. This zone aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and marks a former support zone that has now been broken, indicating a potential structure break. Price returning to this level would be retesting the underside of broken market structure, which often acts as a powerful resistance area. Given this, a deeper pullback into this region may serve as a trap for late buyers and potentially offer a high-probability short setup.
Bullish bounce area
On the bullish side, the most relevant support is currently found within the 1-hour FVG that was formed last Friday, during the release of the U.S. unemployment rate data. This zone is positioned below current price levels and is likely to act as a strong short-term demand area. It is reasonable to anticipate a bullish reaction from this zone if the market retraces downward, making it a favorable area to seek long opportunities for a potential move into the higher resistance levels described above.
Final thoughts
While the broader trend remains bearish, short-term bullish bounces are likely within defined fair value gaps. Traders should keep a close eye on the 1-hour FVG for possible long entries, while watching the 4-hour FVGs, particularly those aligning with key Fibonacci levels, for signs of bearish continuation. If resistance holds firm, the EUR/USD could resume its downtrend, but any structural breaks or sustained closes above these levels would challenge that view. As always, price action around these zones should guide the final decision-making.
-------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Trade active
It is moving to the support area. Only taking a lot of timeTrade closed: target reached
It is taking a while. Lets wait if we move up soon. Not the bounce I was looking for yet
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.