Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Third leg up is done and now it’s all about how long do we need for a lower low below 23680 again. For now I don’t know since we have another risk-off news but of them were bought the past 3 months, so I remain skeptical. Too early for shorts but I think longs near 24000 are likely good for a bounce to either retest 24749 or print a lower high.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24800
bull case: Bulls want to continue sideways to up and trap all eager bears again who think that 30% tariffs between the US-EU are bad. Those poor souls. Markets can only go up.
Invalidation is below 23680
bear case: Bears need a lower low below 23680. That’s all there is to it. No idea how fast and if we get there but shorts before are most likely a gamble, since literally every dip since April has been bought and especially every Sunday Globex gap down became a giant trap. I do think 24749 is a perfect double top with the prior ath from June and we can go down from here but until we have a daily close below 23680, I am not eager to run into another bear trap.
Invalidation is above 24749
short term: Neutral. Tariff news are bad but they are not in-effect, so could be that we see another bear trap. I don’t know and I won’t pretend otherwise. Sitting on hands.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000.
comment: Third leg up is done and now it’s all about how long do we need for a lower low below 23680 again. For now I don’t know since we have another risk-off news but of them were bought the past 3 months, so I remain skeptical. Too early for shorts but I think longs near 24000 are likely good for a bounce to either retest 24749 or print a lower high.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24800
bull case: Bulls want to continue sideways to up and trap all eager bears again who think that 30% tariffs between the US-EU are bad. Those poor souls. Markets can only go up.
Invalidation is below 23680
bear case: Bears need a lower low below 23680. That’s all there is to it. No idea how fast and if we get there but shorts before are most likely a gamble, since literally every dip since April has been bought and especially every Sunday Globex gap down became a giant trap. I do think 24749 is a perfect double top with the prior ath from June and we can go down from here but until we have a daily close below 23680, I am not eager to run into another bear trap.
Invalidation is above 24749
short term: Neutral. Tariff news are bad but they are not in-effect, so could be that we see another bear trap. I don’t know and I won’t pretend otherwise. Sitting on hands.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.