Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 50% retracement of the last bull leg is pretty much exactly 24530 and low of the day was 24531. Could always be a coincidence eh. Bull gap still open to 24383, so do not look for shorts. I doubt we will go red into the weekend unless we get bad news. Technically we could pull back to the bull trend line 24200ish but I can not, for the life of me, see that happening tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend on the 1h tf
key levels: 24300 - 25000
bull case: Bulls want 25000 now. They are correcting sideways, which is as bullish as it gets. Even if bears close the gap to 24383, I would still expect another push for 24700+ with at least a lower high. Bulls remain in full control.
Invalidation is below 24270.
bear case: Bears likely not doing much but rather bulls taking profits. It was a slow grind lower on low volume. I would not expect follow-through selling tomorrow. Bears still have nothing until we see lower lows again.
Invalidation is above 25100.
short term: Neutral. Bulls remain in control but the spike phase is over and we are trading below the 1h ema, which means the trend is getting weaker. We could pull back further or stop at the 50% retracement and leave the gap open. No bigger interest in guessing what it’s gonna be, so I sit on hands.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Tough to short this and hold tbh. Not really obvious today, so no trade of the day from me.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.