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2025-07-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax

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Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: Not many times a month where the chart is as clear as this one. Every pattern can fail but you have to take these setups because they work more than they fail. Market is clearly refusing to go down, so don’t try to short it yet.

current market cycle: trading range - bull trend on the 1h tf

key levels: 23600 - 24700

bull case: Bulls want a retest of 24500+ and today they got a clear breakout above the prior high and stayed there. They have all the arguments on their side to test the ath. Only thing they could stop this is a news event.

Invalidation is below 23860.

bear case: Bears kinda gave up. Channel is tight and looking for shorts in these channels is not a good strategy. Above 24400 bears have to cover again since the obvious target is 24500+. Bears basically have nothing here. No matter what you think of we where should trade.

Invalidation is above 24400.

short term: Can only be bullish. Any long has stop 24170

medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000

trade of the day: Buying any pullback was good. Most obvious one was the double bottom on EU open, right at the 1h 20ema.

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