Overview:
GBP/JPY is trading near 197.91, and recent price action suggests a potential short opportunity. The pair has been rejected from a key Fibonacci resistance zone, and bearish momentum appears to be building beneath a fading ascending channel. Let’s break down why this chart leans more bearish.
Market Structure Breakdown:
* Price action failed to sustain new highs above 199.90 and is now forming lower highs, a potential early sign of trend exhaustion.
* The recent bounce from 197.40 was muted and rejected near the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, indicating strong supply around the 198.68–198.98 zone.
Fibonacci Confluence:
* The rejection occurred right at the 0.618 retracement of the prior downswing — a key Fibonacci level often used by institutional traders to re-enter in the direction of the trend.
* Price is now hovering below the 0.382 (198.38) and 0.5 (198.68) levels, which may now act as resistance.
* If the current rejection holds, downside targets are:
* 0.0 (197.40) – recent low
* -0.27 extension (196.70) – potential bearish continuation target
* -0.618 extension (195.81) – extended downside objective
Trendline & Channel Considerations:
* The ascending channel is losing momentum.
Moving Averages:
* Price is now below the 50 EMA, and testing the 200 EMA, which is at risk of breaking.
* A clear close below both EMAs would confirm bearish momentum.
RSI & Momentum:
* The RSI shows bearish divergence on recent highs and is struggling to break above the midline (50).
* Momentum is tilting to the downside and failing to build higher on bounces.
Key Zones:
* Resistance Zone: 198.60–198.98
* Strong Fibonacci confluence + previous supply
* Support Zone: 197.40
* Prior swing low and 0.0 Fib level
* Bearish Continuation Zone: Below 197.30
* Breakout would confirm downside acceleration toward 196.70 and 195.80
Conclusion:
GBP/JPY is showing signs of bearish pressure beneath key resistance. With the rejection from the 0.618 Fib level and weakening channel structure, the path of least resistance may be to the downside — especially if price breaks and holds below 197.40.
A confirmed breakdown opens the door toward 196.70 and possibly 195.80, as bearish continuation unfolds. Overall we can even see price hitting past historical levels at 189.50
GBP/JPY is trading near 197.91, and recent price action suggests a potential short opportunity. The pair has been rejected from a key Fibonacci resistance zone, and bearish momentum appears to be building beneath a fading ascending channel. Let’s break down why this chart leans more bearish.
Market Structure Breakdown:
* Price action failed to sustain new highs above 199.90 and is now forming lower highs, a potential early sign of trend exhaustion.
* The recent bounce from 197.40 was muted and rejected near the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, indicating strong supply around the 198.68–198.98 zone.
Fibonacci Confluence:
* The rejection occurred right at the 0.618 retracement of the prior downswing — a key Fibonacci level often used by institutional traders to re-enter in the direction of the trend.
* Price is now hovering below the 0.382 (198.38) and 0.5 (198.68) levels, which may now act as resistance.
* If the current rejection holds, downside targets are:
* 0.0 (197.40) – recent low
* -0.27 extension (196.70) – potential bearish continuation target
* -0.618 extension (195.81) – extended downside objective
Trendline & Channel Considerations:
* The ascending channel is losing momentum.
Moving Averages:
* Price is now below the 50 EMA, and testing the 200 EMA, which is at risk of breaking.
* A clear close below both EMAs would confirm bearish momentum.
RSI & Momentum:
* The RSI shows bearish divergence on recent highs and is struggling to break above the midline (50).
* Momentum is tilting to the downside and failing to build higher on bounces.
Key Zones:
* Resistance Zone: 198.60–198.98
* Strong Fibonacci confluence + previous supply
* Support Zone: 197.40
* Prior swing low and 0.0 Fib level
* Bearish Continuation Zone: Below 197.30
* Breakout would confirm downside acceleration toward 196.70 and 195.80
Conclusion:
GBP/JPY is showing signs of bearish pressure beneath key resistance. With the rejection from the 0.618 Fib level and weakening channel structure, the path of least resistance may be to the downside — especially if price breaks and holds below 197.40.
A confirmed breakdown opens the door toward 196.70 and possibly 195.80, as bearish continuation unfolds. Overall we can even see price hitting past historical levels at 189.50
💎 FREE FOREX and CRYPTO Signals: t.me/WWInvestmentsFree
🌐 Website: taplink.cc/wrightwayinvestments
🌐 Website: taplink.cc/wrightwayinvestments
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
💎 FREE FOREX and CRYPTO Signals: t.me/WWInvestmentsFree
🌐 Website: taplink.cc/wrightwayinvestments
🌐 Website: taplink.cc/wrightwayinvestments
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.