I’m watching GBPNZD for a potential bullish continuation after a successful retest of the long-term ascending trendline. Price rejected near the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle and showed bullish momentum right off that support. My structure suggests potential upside targets at 2.25559 (minor resistance) and 2.26854 (upper triangle boundary/major resistance zone).
🔍 Fundamental Context:
🇬🇧 GBP Fundamentals:
UK CPI came in softer than expected, and BoE rate cuts are slowly being priced in for late 2025.
However, BoE still sounds relatively hawkish compared to RBNZ due to inflation persistence in services.
Strong UK wage growth and sticky inflation give GBP some near-term yield support.
🇳🇿 NZD Fundamentals:
RBNZ remains on hold, but dovish tilt noted in recent communications.
NZD under pressure from falling dairy prices and weak global growth sentiment (especially China).
Risk-off flows and Fed hawkishness keep NZD vulnerable as a high-beta currency.
⚠️ Risks to the Setup:
A surprise hawkish turn from RBNZ or better-than-expected NZ data could boost NZD.
Renewed UK political instability or weak retail sales data may pressure GBP.
Broader market risk sentiment — NZD may strengthen if risk-on returns and US yields drop.
🗓️ Key News/Events to Monitor:
UK Retail Sales (July 25)
RBNZ Governor Orr Speech (if scheduled)
US PCE (for global risk impact)
Chinese macro data (indirect NZD driver)
🔁 Leader/Lagger Perspective:
GBPNZD often leads EURNZD during GBP-specific catalysts (BoE speeches, UK CPI).
It lags NZDUSD and NZDCAD when risk sentiment or commodity cycles dominate.
📌 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
I'm bullish on GBPNZD in the short term, especially after a strong trendline retest and recovery off the 2.2450 zone. Fundamentals support GBP resilience over NZD due to relatively hawkish BoE stance and weaker New Zealand data. The main risk to this setup would be a dovish BoE surprise or strong NZ commodity-led rebound. I'll be watching UK Retail Sales and general risk sentiment closely. This pair can act as a leader during UK-specific news but becomes a lagger when risk flows dominate broader NZD direction.
🔍 Fundamental Context:
🇬🇧 GBP Fundamentals:
UK CPI came in softer than expected, and BoE rate cuts are slowly being priced in for late 2025.
However, BoE still sounds relatively hawkish compared to RBNZ due to inflation persistence in services.
Strong UK wage growth and sticky inflation give GBP some near-term yield support.
🇳🇿 NZD Fundamentals:
RBNZ remains on hold, but dovish tilt noted in recent communications.
NZD under pressure from falling dairy prices and weak global growth sentiment (especially China).
Risk-off flows and Fed hawkishness keep NZD vulnerable as a high-beta currency.
⚠️ Risks to the Setup:
A surprise hawkish turn from RBNZ or better-than-expected NZ data could boost NZD.
Renewed UK political instability or weak retail sales data may pressure GBP.
Broader market risk sentiment — NZD may strengthen if risk-on returns and US yields drop.
🗓️ Key News/Events to Monitor:
UK Retail Sales (July 25)
RBNZ Governor Orr Speech (if scheduled)
US PCE (for global risk impact)
Chinese macro data (indirect NZD driver)
🔁 Leader/Lagger Perspective:
GBPNZD often leads EURNZD during GBP-specific catalysts (BoE speeches, UK CPI).
It lags NZDUSD and NZDCAD when risk sentiment or commodity cycles dominate.
📌 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
I'm bullish on GBPNZD in the short term, especially after a strong trendline retest and recovery off the 2.2450 zone. Fundamentals support GBP resilience over NZD due to relatively hawkish BoE stance and weaker New Zealand data. The main risk to this setup would be a dovish BoE surprise or strong NZ commodity-led rebound. I'll be watching UK Retail Sales and general risk sentiment closely. This pair can act as a leader during UK-specific news but becomes a lagger when risk flows dominate broader NZD direction.
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📊 Forex Signals | Free Daily Alerts
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
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✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.