🧠 Macro + COT + Sentiment Context
Commitment of Traders (COT) – Asset Managers
Institutional asset managers are significantly net short on GBPNZD, with positioning at its lowest level of the year and declining sharply since May. This reflects a clear bearish stance from smart money and reinforces the current downward pressure.
Sentiment & Momentum Indicators
DPO: -54.9 → Indicates a moderately bearish momentum phase.
Wyckoff: -20.3 → Price is in a distribution phase, suggesting weakness.
Speed: 3.2 → Low acceleration, but directional bias remains bearish.
Market Mood: Neutral, but leaning into oversold territory.
Seasonality (July 1st – Sept 30th)
Historically, GBPNZD performs positively in this period:
3Y: +1.7%, 5Y: +1.6%, 10Y: +2.3%, 15Y: +2.8%
However, in 2025, price is diverging sharply from seasonal norms. The pair is trading against historical patterns, suggesting a seasonal anomaly where institutional flow is dominating historical behavior.
🧱 Technical Outlook (Daily Chart)
GBPNZD had been consolidating in a clear range between 2.2170 support and 2.2750 resistance since May. The pair has now broken down with a strong, full-bodied weekly candle, closing below the 2.2320 demand zone.
Key Technical Zones:
Supply zone (2.2494–2.2659) → A clear rejection zone that initiated the current selloff.
Demand zone (2.2170–2.2300) → Has been tested twice already, increasing the probability of a clean breakdown.
RSI (Daily) → Currently neutral, with a sequence of lower highs and no bullish divergence in sight — indicating weak momentum.
✅ Conclusion & Trade Plan
Directional Bias: Bearish (Short)
Although seasonality typically supports bullish price action for GBPNZD in Q3, the current context is decisively bearish. Institutional positioning, price structure, and sentiment all confirm a potential shift in direction, reinforced by a confirmed weekly breakdown.
Bearish Targets:
📍 First: 2.2170 (recent support test)
📍 Second: 2.2000–2.1900 (April swing low)
📍 Extension: 2.1750 (base of previous accumulation zone)
Invalidation Criteria:
A weekly close above 2.2490 (supply zone breached)
Bullish RSI divergence + weekly recovery candle
Commitment of Traders (COT) – Asset Managers
Institutional asset managers are significantly net short on GBPNZD, with positioning at its lowest level of the year and declining sharply since May. This reflects a clear bearish stance from smart money and reinforces the current downward pressure.
Sentiment & Momentum Indicators
DPO: -54.9 → Indicates a moderately bearish momentum phase.
Wyckoff: -20.3 → Price is in a distribution phase, suggesting weakness.
Speed: 3.2 → Low acceleration, but directional bias remains bearish.
Market Mood: Neutral, but leaning into oversold territory.
Seasonality (July 1st – Sept 30th)
Historically, GBPNZD performs positively in this period:
3Y: +1.7%, 5Y: +1.6%, 10Y: +2.3%, 15Y: +2.8%
However, in 2025, price is diverging sharply from seasonal norms. The pair is trading against historical patterns, suggesting a seasonal anomaly where institutional flow is dominating historical behavior.
🧱 Technical Outlook (Daily Chart)
GBPNZD had been consolidating in a clear range between 2.2170 support and 2.2750 resistance since May. The pair has now broken down with a strong, full-bodied weekly candle, closing below the 2.2320 demand zone.
Key Technical Zones:
Supply zone (2.2494–2.2659) → A clear rejection zone that initiated the current selloff.
Demand zone (2.2170–2.2300) → Has been tested twice already, increasing the probability of a clean breakdown.
RSI (Daily) → Currently neutral, with a sequence of lower highs and no bullish divergence in sight — indicating weak momentum.
✅ Conclusion & Trade Plan
Directional Bias: Bearish (Short)
Although seasonality typically supports bullish price action for GBPNZD in Q3, the current context is decisively bearish. Institutional positioning, price structure, and sentiment all confirm a potential shift in direction, reinforced by a confirmed weekly breakdown.
Bearish Targets:
📍 First: 2.2170 (recent support test)
📍 Second: 2.2000–2.1900 (April swing low)
📍 Extension: 2.1750 (base of previous accumulation zone)
Invalidation Criteria:
A weekly close above 2.2490 (supply zone breached)
Bullish RSI divergence + weekly recovery candle
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.