Robinhood 
HOOD has seen an incredible rally over the past year, rising more than 500% since August 2023. Much of this surge has been driven by renewed crypto enthusiasm—sparked by Circle’s IPO—and Robinhood’s aggressive push into new products across fintech and crypto.
But despite strong financial performance, we now believe the stock has run too far, too fast.
💰 Strong Fundamentals, But Slowing Growth
Robinhood’s recent financials are undeniably impressive:
Trailing 12-month revenue: $3.27B (up ~60% YoY)
Net income: $1.59B
Operating income: $1.2B
Revenue from commissions and interest income has outpaced expenses, resulting in high margins. But looking ahead, earnings-per-share (EPS) growth is expected to slow. Analysts forecast mid-teens EPS growth in 2026 and 2027, with a potential dip this year as one-time tax benefits roll off.
Robinhood Gold, the company’s premium service, is growing steadily (ARR projected to top $250M this year), but it’s still a small slice of total revenue.
🛠️ Product Expansion or Strategy Drift?
Robinhood is launching a wide array of new offerings—from robo-advisors and AI tools to crypto products in Europe and futures trading in the U.S.
The issue? These launches feel disjointed. U.S. users get a full-featured experience with stocks, options, crypto, and banking tools. UK users are limited to U.S. stock trading, with balances held in USD. In Europe, Robinhood leans heavily into crypto.
While the company claims it’s building a “global financial ecosystem,” the rollout has been inconsistent and confusing. This scattered approach may dilute brand clarity and user trust.
📊 Valuation: Sky-High and Hard to Justify
At current prices, HOOD trades at:
26x revenue
54x trailing earnings
74x forward earnings
At over 45x FY3 earnings, higher than fintech peers like SoFi (29x), Etoro (20x), and Interactive Brokers (27x)
The only comparable valuation is Coinbase (COIN), which has a more dominant position in crypto and stronger institutional traction. Given that most of HOOD’s revenue still comes from traditional brokerage services, this crypto-fueled valuation seems overblown.
🚨 Bottom Line
Robinhood remains a promising long-term company, but its stock looks overheated. Slowing earnings growth, a scattered international strategy, and a sky-high valuation point to limited upside from here.
Verdict: Sell
Investors sitting on big gains may want to take some profits while the euphoria lasts.
HOOD has seen an incredible rally over the past year, rising more than 500% since August 2023. Much of this surge has been driven by renewed crypto enthusiasm—sparked by Circle’s IPO—and Robinhood’s aggressive push into new products across fintech and crypto.But despite strong financial performance, we now believe the stock has run too far, too fast.
💰 Strong Fundamentals, But Slowing Growth
Robinhood’s recent financials are undeniably impressive:
Trailing 12-month revenue: $3.27B (up ~60% YoY)
Net income: $1.59B
Operating income: $1.2B
Revenue from commissions and interest income has outpaced expenses, resulting in high margins. But looking ahead, earnings-per-share (EPS) growth is expected to slow. Analysts forecast mid-teens EPS growth in 2026 and 2027, with a potential dip this year as one-time tax benefits roll off.
Robinhood Gold, the company’s premium service, is growing steadily (ARR projected to top $250M this year), but it’s still a small slice of total revenue.
🛠️ Product Expansion or Strategy Drift?
Robinhood is launching a wide array of new offerings—from robo-advisors and AI tools to crypto products in Europe and futures trading in the U.S.
The issue? These launches feel disjointed. U.S. users get a full-featured experience with stocks, options, crypto, and banking tools. UK users are limited to U.S. stock trading, with balances held in USD. In Europe, Robinhood leans heavily into crypto.
While the company claims it’s building a “global financial ecosystem,” the rollout has been inconsistent and confusing. This scattered approach may dilute brand clarity and user trust.
📊 Valuation: Sky-High and Hard to Justify
At current prices, HOOD trades at:
26x revenue
54x trailing earnings
74x forward earnings
At over 45x FY3 earnings, higher than fintech peers like SoFi (29x), Etoro (20x), and Interactive Brokers (27x)
The only comparable valuation is Coinbase (COIN), which has a more dominant position in crypto and stronger institutional traction. Given that most of HOOD’s revenue still comes from traditional brokerage services, this crypto-fueled valuation seems overblown.
🚨 Bottom Line
Robinhood remains a promising long-term company, but its stock looks overheated. Slowing earnings growth, a scattered international strategy, and a sky-high valuation point to limited upside from here.
Verdict: Sell
Investors sitting on big gains may want to take some profits while the euphoria lasts.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.