IBM Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-07-23)

🧨 IBM Earnings Trade Idea 🧨

Earnings Date: July 24, 2025 (AMC)
🧠 Confidence: 70% Bearish | 🎯 Expected Move: ~5%

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🔍 Snapshot Summary:
• 🐢 Revenue Growth: Flat at +0.5% YoY
• ⚠️ High Debt: D/E ratio at 247.98 — compression risk
• ✅ Beat History: 100% past 8 quarters, but…
• 🤔 Forward EPS Projections: +81.7% looks too ambitious
• 🔻 Analyst Target Below Market Price: $273.36 avg (vs. $281.96 now)
• 📉 Pre-Earnings Drift: Trading below 20-day MA
• 🛡️ Options Flow: Bearish bias, heavy put flow at $275/$255 strikes

⸻

🧠 Strategy Rationale:

Despite a strong beat history, IBM’s fundamentals are weakening — growth is stagnant, debt is high, and guidance may disappoint. Institutions are hedging downside via puts, and recent technical action shows momentum fading.

⸻

📉 Earnings Trade Setup

{
"instrument": "IBM",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 280.00,
"expiry": "2025-07-25",
"entry_price": 6.30,
"confidence": 70,
"profit_target": 12.00,
"stop_loss": 3.15,
"size": 2,
"entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close",
"earnings_date": "2025-07-24",
"expected_move": 5.0,
"iv_rank": 0.60
}

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💼 Trade Details (Simplified)

🔧 Parameter 🧾 Value
🎯 Strike $280 Put
📅 Expiry 2025-07-25
💵 Entry Price $6.30
🚀 Profit Target $12.00 (200% gain)
🛑 Stop Loss $3.15 (50% loss)
⚖️ Position Size 2 contracts
⏰ Entry Timing Before close 7/24
📈 IV Rank 60%

⸻

🎯 Exit Plan:
• 💰 Profit Exit: Close if premium hits $12+
• ⚠️ Stop Loss: Trigger at $3.15
• ⏱️ Time Exit: Auto-close within 2 hours post-earnings to avoid IV crush

⸻

🧠 Final Thoughts:

“IBM’s history says beat — but the setup says trap.”
If guidance stumbles, this low-beta name could slide, and bearish put flow is already sniffing it out.

📊 Are you riding the puts with this one, or fading the crowd? Let me know👇

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