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From Accumulation to Acceleration: IREDA Ready for a Run?

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Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd. is a non-banking financial company, which engages in the promotion, development, and extending financial assistance for energy conservation projects. It operates through the Financing Activities in the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Sector and Generation of Power through Solar Plant Operations segments. The company was founded on March 11, 1987 and is headquartered in New Delhi, India.

IREDA remains well-positioned in the renewable-financing ecosystem, with strong fundamentals and proactive growth capital raising. Continued loan book expansion, robust profitability, and regulatory backing reinforce strategic upside, despite near-term dilution and credit vigilance.

📊 Technical Analysis
🔸 Chart Pattern: Ascending Triangle
Base Support Zone: Around ₹145–₹150.

Higher Lows Formation: Indicates accumulation.
Resistance: ₹180–₹185 (currently testing).
Volume: Drying up during consolidation – a bullish sign per Minervini/Boik for potential breakout.

Moving Average: Price hovering near or reclaiming 30-week MA (Weinstein Stage 1 to Stage 2 transition).

📌 Stan Weinstein – Stage Analysis

Stage: Transition from Stage 1 (base) to potential Stage 2 breakout.
Needs strong volume breakout above ₹185–₹190 for confirmation.

📌 Anna Coulling – Volume Price Analysis (VPA)
Volume Decline on pullbacks confirms no aggressive selling.

Watch for volume spike + wide range candle above ₹185 to confirm buyer dominance.

📌 Mark Minervini – SEPA Criteria

Consolidation: 5-month tightening range.
Relative Strength: Bouncing back while broader markets corrected.
Trigger Entry: ₹180–₹186 (pivot point), with SL below ₹169.

📌 William O’Neil – CANSLIM Style

C: Current Earnings – Q4 EPS ₹1.9 (+49% YoY) ✅
A: Annual Earnings – consistent growth trend ✅
N: New – Transitioning sector, renewed momentum in green energy 🟡
S: Supply/Demand – Low float (25%), positive U/D volume ratio ✅
L: Leader – Improving performance, but not sector leader yet 🟡
I: Institutional Demand – Improving but needs volume surge ✅
M: Market – Tailwind from green energy and power reforms ✅

✅ Strengths:

High and rising Operating Margins (40%)
Growing Sales and EPS
Decent ROE (18%)
Small float stock – prone to sharp moves.

⚠️ Watchlist Risks:

Price still below previous highs – needs breakout confirmation.

Low volume participation recently.

🎯 Recommendation
📌 Action Plan:

IREDA Buy Above ₹180–₹185 with volume confirmation.

Target 1: ₹230

Target 2: ₹265

Stoploss: ₹169 (below triangle base)

📝 Summary

Indian Renewable Energy is on the verge of a technical breakout after a prolonged base. Supported by improving fundamentals, bullish volume structure, and classic accumulation patterns, it aligns well with the strategies of Weinstein, Minervini, and O'Neil. A breakout above ₹180–₹185 on volume will confirm a fresh rally phase.

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