The Micro E-mini S&P is walking a tightrope. After weeks of controlled movement within a rising parallel channel, price has now slammed into the lower boundary and the next move will define the week's direction.
I've mapped the channel from the July 2 low, with multiple precise touches on both upper and lower boundaries. Currently, MES is printing a heavy rejection from the 6360 supply zone, falling nearly 90 points back to the channel’s base near 6270.
Preferred Bias: Short-term Bearish Until Reclaimed
While the macro structure is still technically bullish (channel intact), momentum, supply pressure, and volume structure suggest sellers are gaining the upper hand:
- Mid-channel equilibrium (EQ) at 6310 was sliced without bounce
- No absorption yet at 6270 demand box
- Previous rally legs show decreasing impulsiveness — weakening buyers
Unless bulls aggressively defend 6270 with a reclaim candle or V-shape wick, this looks like a liquidity tap + structural breakdown loading up.
Bearish Play: “Channel Collapse Incoming”
Entry: Break + retest of 6,255–6,260 zone
SL: 6,275 (above retest structure)
TP1: 6,225
TP2: 6,180
Confluences:
- Channel break
- No support bounce at EQ
- Supply rejection at 6360
- Volume void below 6250
Bullish Play (Countertrend Fade): “Defend the Line”
Entry: Bounce off 6,270 with bullish engulfing or reclaim
SL: 6,255 (invalidate structure)
TP1: 6,310 (mid-channel)
TP2: 6,340–6,360 (supply reload zone)
Only valid if buyers show up with real intent don’t pre-empt.
This is a textbook inflection zone. If the lower trend line breaks and retests from below, momentum favours the bears. If bulls trap and reverse this drop at 6270, we could see a fast grind back to 6360 but as of now, all signs lean toward breakdown over bounce.
I've mapped the channel from the July 2 low, with multiple precise touches on both upper and lower boundaries. Currently, MES is printing a heavy rejection from the 6360 supply zone, falling nearly 90 points back to the channel’s base near 6270.
Preferred Bias: Short-term Bearish Until Reclaimed
While the macro structure is still technically bullish (channel intact), momentum, supply pressure, and volume structure suggest sellers are gaining the upper hand:
- Mid-channel equilibrium (EQ) at 6310 was sliced without bounce
- No absorption yet at 6270 demand box
- Previous rally legs show decreasing impulsiveness — weakening buyers
Unless bulls aggressively defend 6270 with a reclaim candle or V-shape wick, this looks like a liquidity tap + structural breakdown loading up.
Bearish Play: “Channel Collapse Incoming”
Entry: Break + retest of 6,255–6,260 zone
SL: 6,275 (above retest structure)
TP1: 6,225
TP2: 6,180
Confluences:
- Channel break
- No support bounce at EQ
- Supply rejection at 6360
- Volume void below 6250
Bullish Play (Countertrend Fade): “Defend the Line”
Entry: Bounce off 6,270 with bullish engulfing or reclaim
SL: 6,255 (invalidate structure)
TP1: 6,310 (mid-channel)
TP2: 6,340–6,360 (supply reload zone)
Only valid if buyers show up with real intent don’t pre-empt.
This is a textbook inflection zone. If the lower trend line breaks and retests from below, momentum favours the bears. If bulls trap and reverse this drop at 6270, we could see a fast grind back to 6360 but as of now, all signs lean toward breakdown over bounce.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.