Hello, my name is The Cafe Trader.
As part of our MAG 7 Series, we tackle META next on the list.
This article is for:
– Long-Term Investors
– Long-Term Hedges
– Swing Traders
– Options Traders
⸻
Brief Notes:
1. Meta is going all-in on AI, integrating it across all platforms (Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp…).
2. 97% of Meta’s revenue still comes from ads. They’ve rebounded strongly from Apple’s policy changes—thanks in large part to AI targeting.
3. Meta is thinking long-term with AR/VR.
4. International user growth has exploded.
Conclusion: Bullish winds continue to blow behind META.
⸻
Long-Term Levels
• Aggressive Buy = $701.59 → Marked as “Top of Demand.” This is where aggressive buyers are looking to add.
• Good Value = $626–$635 → Marked “Bottom of Demand.”
• STEAL = $496–$501 → Marked “Extreme Demand.”
Why not buy at the ‘Heavy Demand Zone’?
Great question. If bears take out those buyers above this zone, it suggests something major has shifted in sentiment around META.
Even though there’s heavy demand here, I’d want to observe how sellers approach the area. You’ll likely get multiple chances to enter if buyers defend it. But if it breaks down, the best pricing lies at “Extreme Demand.”
For long-term holders looking to hedge downside, I suggest a Bear Put Spread or outright puts. More on this under the Red Scenario Options.
⸻
For Traders
Let me be real—this chart is tricky.
The V-shaped recovery signals strong bullish interest. That insane rally took out a major seller, further fueling the bulls.
That said, how we pulled away from the previous ATH (all-time high) shows weakness—low buying interest, followed by a real seller stepping in.
So yeah, I’m mixed on sentiment. But I’m confident in identifying liquidity and managing exits fast.
⸻
Two Scenarios
✅ Green Scenario
– Stock:
The bounce off “Top of Demand” is a strong bullish signal. Bears will be under pressure around $729, though I expect one more rejection before we break through.
I liked the original entry at “Top of Demand.” If entering again, I’d wait for a crack below that zone and watch the close—if we recover and close above it (especially if the dip was deep), that’s a strong signal to re-enter.
Target: take partial or full profits around $729. Hold the rest for highs or a breakout.
– Options:
If you can grab the 715 Calls with 3–5 days out for under $4.50, this setup could easily hit 2–3R.
Even better if you can get closer-to-the-money contracts for cheaper.
⸻
❌ Red Scenario
– Stock:
I believe this “new seller” is a fabricated seller—likely to get squeezed.
But if no new buying interest shows up to challenge that seller, we could see pressure on “Top of Demand” and a legit correction, maybe even a broader consolidation range.
Next few days will reveal the strength of buyers.
If no aggressive buying steps in, I like the short setup, targeting “Bottom of Demand” for TP.
– Options:
Long-Term Holders:
Use 2–3% of your META share value on a Bear Put Spread or put options.
If using puts, get 2–3 weeks of time. Go as close to the money as your risk allows.
Active Traders:
This could move fast if it plays out. If you can grab a 710 Put with 3–5 days for under $1.00, hold until a big red candle (3–5%) forms.
If it keeps dragging down, roll into a new contract the following week.
⸻
Follow for more analysis and updates — and as always,
Happy Trading.
📲 thecafetrader
As part of our MAG 7 Series, we tackle META next on the list.
This article is for:
– Long-Term Investors
– Long-Term Hedges
– Swing Traders
– Options Traders
⸻
Brief Notes:
1. Meta is going all-in on AI, integrating it across all platforms (Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp…).
2. 97% of Meta’s revenue still comes from ads. They’ve rebounded strongly from Apple’s policy changes—thanks in large part to AI targeting.
3. Meta is thinking long-term with AR/VR.
4. International user growth has exploded.
Conclusion: Bullish winds continue to blow behind META.
⸻
Long-Term Levels
• Aggressive Buy = $701.59 → Marked as “Top of Demand.” This is where aggressive buyers are looking to add.
• Good Value = $626–$635 → Marked “Bottom of Demand.”
• STEAL = $496–$501 → Marked “Extreme Demand.”
Why not buy at the ‘Heavy Demand Zone’?
Great question. If bears take out those buyers above this zone, it suggests something major has shifted in sentiment around META.
Even though there’s heavy demand here, I’d want to observe how sellers approach the area. You’ll likely get multiple chances to enter if buyers defend it. But if it breaks down, the best pricing lies at “Extreme Demand.”
For long-term holders looking to hedge downside, I suggest a Bear Put Spread or outright puts. More on this under the Red Scenario Options.
⸻
For Traders
Let me be real—this chart is tricky.
The V-shaped recovery signals strong bullish interest. That insane rally took out a major seller, further fueling the bulls.
That said, how we pulled away from the previous ATH (all-time high) shows weakness—low buying interest, followed by a real seller stepping in.
So yeah, I’m mixed on sentiment. But I’m confident in identifying liquidity and managing exits fast.
⸻
Two Scenarios
✅ Green Scenario
– Stock:
The bounce off “Top of Demand” is a strong bullish signal. Bears will be under pressure around $729, though I expect one more rejection before we break through.
I liked the original entry at “Top of Demand.” If entering again, I’d wait for a crack below that zone and watch the close—if we recover and close above it (especially if the dip was deep), that’s a strong signal to re-enter.
Target: take partial or full profits around $729. Hold the rest for highs or a breakout.
– Options:
If you can grab the 715 Calls with 3–5 days out for under $4.50, this setup could easily hit 2–3R.
Even better if you can get closer-to-the-money contracts for cheaper.
⸻
❌ Red Scenario
– Stock:
I believe this “new seller” is a fabricated seller—likely to get squeezed.
But if no new buying interest shows up to challenge that seller, we could see pressure on “Top of Demand” and a legit correction, maybe even a broader consolidation range.
Next few days will reveal the strength of buyers.
If no aggressive buying steps in, I like the short setup, targeting “Bottom of Demand” for TP.
– Options:
Long-Term Holders:
Use 2–3% of your META share value on a Bear Put Spread or put options.
If using puts, get 2–3 weeks of time. Go as close to the money as your risk allows.
Active Traders:
This could move fast if it plays out. If you can grab a 710 Put with 3–5 days for under $1.00, hold until a big red candle (3–5%) forms.
If it keeps dragging down, roll into a new contract the following week.
⸻
Follow for more analysis and updates — and as always,
Happy Trading.
📲 thecafetrader
Trade active
Meta up about 1% overnight. This is going to put pressure on those sellers if this stays like this. Nothing has changed from last week, both plays are still valid. 733 Has some concentrated sellers. That would be the only thing different that I would keep an eye on. I will keep everyone posted.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.