📊 MSTR – MicroStrategy Technical & Bitcoin Correlation
Ticker: MSTR | Sector: Bitcoin Treasury Proxy / Enterprise Software
Date: July 26, 2025
Current MSTR Price: ~$405.89
Current Bitcoin Price: ~$118,127
🔍 Chart & Price Structure
Recent Action: MSTR declined from the ~$430–450 range and has consolidated around the $405 level, forming a tight base.
Support Zone: $395–$400 — prior volume cluster, recent dip buyers stepped in.
Weak Resistance: $415–$420 — a shallow supply zone; bigger resistance lies at ~$430.
Volume & Candles: Mixed volume, with small-bodied candles showing indecision near $405. Buyers are attempting to hold.
📈 Bitcoin Outlook & Influence
MicroStrategy remains tethered to Bitcoin’s trajectory. Recent BTC consolidation around $118K closely influences MSTR sentiment.
BTC Projections
From Citi (Jul 25):
Base Case: $135K by year-end
Bull Case: $199K
Bear Case: $64K if equities falter or ETF flows wane
Other Views:
Hashdex sees BTC reaching up to $140K in 2025
Omni Ekonomi
Global X ETF-based models anticipate $200K within 12 months
The Australian
Kiyosaki warns of potential crash despite optimism
These imply a possible 25–70% upside in BTC, which could drive MSTR toward $500–$600+ if holdings are stable.
⏱️ Short-Term Outlook (1–2 Weeks)
✅ Bullish Scenario
Trigger: Hold above support at $400, reclaim $415–$420
Immediate Upside Targets:
First: $430
Break above $430 → $450
Drivers: Bitcoin breaking back above recent highs, ETF inflows, favorable regulatory headlines
❌ Bearish Scenario
Trigger: Break below $395
Downside Targets:
$380 → $360 → $350
Drivers: BTC weakness → below $110K, altcoin rotation, broader equity weakness
🔭 Long-Term Outlook (H2 2025 / beyond)
🚀 Bull Case
If Bitcoin reaches $135K–$200K (Citi bull case, institutional demand, ETF momentum), MSTR could rally alongside to $550–$650.
MicroStrategy’s business fundamentals (data analytics/AI) may contribute optionality beyond BTC.
🐻 Bear Case
If Bitcoin retraces toward $64K or below due to risk-off sentiment or regulatory changes, MSTR could fall back toward $300–$350.
📊 Summary Table
View Trigger Level Targets Bitcoin Scenario Confidence
Short-Term Bull Above $405 and reclaim $415–420 $430 → $450 BTC > $118K and flat-to-up Moderate
Short-Term Bear Below $395 $380 → $360 → $350 BTC dips < $115K Moderate
Long-Term Bull BTC to $135K–$200K $550 → $600+ ETF inflows + adoption acceleration High (if BTC strength)
Long-Term Bear BTC drops below $110K $350 → $300 Sentiment collapse or regulation Moderate
🧠 Conclusion
MicroStrategy’s stock remains inherently tethered to Bitcoin performance. The $395–$405 zone acts as critical support, while a push above $415–$430 could signal renewed upside. Longer-term, BTC strength into the $135K–200K range would propel MSTR toward $600+ levels; a BTC pullback could drag it toward $300 or lower.
Watch Bitcoin flows, ETF updates, and pillar crypto adoption trends—these are likely to dictate MSTR’s next leg.
Ticker: MSTR | Sector: Bitcoin Treasury Proxy / Enterprise Software
Date: July 26, 2025
Current MSTR Price: ~$405.89
Current Bitcoin Price: ~$118,127
🔍 Chart & Price Structure
Recent Action: MSTR declined from the ~$430–450 range and has consolidated around the $405 level, forming a tight base.
Support Zone: $395–$400 — prior volume cluster, recent dip buyers stepped in.
Weak Resistance: $415–$420 — a shallow supply zone; bigger resistance lies at ~$430.
Volume & Candles: Mixed volume, with small-bodied candles showing indecision near $405. Buyers are attempting to hold.
📈 Bitcoin Outlook & Influence
MicroStrategy remains tethered to Bitcoin’s trajectory. Recent BTC consolidation around $118K closely influences MSTR sentiment.
BTC Projections
From Citi (Jul 25):
Base Case: $135K by year-end
Bull Case: $199K
Bear Case: $64K if equities falter or ETF flows wane
Other Views:
Hashdex sees BTC reaching up to $140K in 2025
Omni Ekonomi
Global X ETF-based models anticipate $200K within 12 months
The Australian
Kiyosaki warns of potential crash despite optimism
These imply a possible 25–70% upside in BTC, which could drive MSTR toward $500–$600+ if holdings are stable.
⏱️ Short-Term Outlook (1–2 Weeks)
✅ Bullish Scenario
Trigger: Hold above support at $400, reclaim $415–$420
Immediate Upside Targets:
First: $430
Break above $430 → $450
Drivers: Bitcoin breaking back above recent highs, ETF inflows, favorable regulatory headlines
❌ Bearish Scenario
Trigger: Break below $395
Downside Targets:
$380 → $360 → $350
Drivers: BTC weakness → below $110K, altcoin rotation, broader equity weakness
🔭 Long-Term Outlook (H2 2025 / beyond)
🚀 Bull Case
If Bitcoin reaches $135K–$200K (Citi bull case, institutional demand, ETF momentum), MSTR could rally alongside to $550–$650.
MicroStrategy’s business fundamentals (data analytics/AI) may contribute optionality beyond BTC.
🐻 Bear Case
If Bitcoin retraces toward $64K or below due to risk-off sentiment or regulatory changes, MSTR could fall back toward $300–$350.
📊 Summary Table
View Trigger Level Targets Bitcoin Scenario Confidence
Short-Term Bull Above $405 and reclaim $415–420 $430 → $450 BTC > $118K and flat-to-up Moderate
Short-Term Bear Below $395 $380 → $360 → $350 BTC dips < $115K Moderate
Long-Term Bull BTC to $135K–$200K $550 → $600+ ETF inflows + adoption acceleration High (if BTC strength)
Long-Term Bear BTC drops below $110K $350 → $300 Sentiment collapse or regulation Moderate
🧠 Conclusion
MicroStrategy’s stock remains inherently tethered to Bitcoin performance. The $395–$405 zone acts as critical support, while a push above $415–$430 could signal renewed upside. Longer-term, BTC strength into the $135K–200K range would propel MSTR toward $600+ levels; a BTC pullback could drag it toward $300 or lower.
Watch Bitcoin flows, ETF updates, and pillar crypto adoption trends—these are likely to dictate MSTR’s next leg.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.