Case Study: Banking a +7 % Pop on OLLI’s VCP/ Ascending Triangle
Momentum in discount retail has been stealth-strong all quarter, so when Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) flashed a textbook volatility-contraction break I pulled the trigger. Below is the full play-by-play, numbers included, plus the process tweaks I’m carrying into the next trade.
1. The Setup
• Pattern: VCP-style ascending triangle under 121 resistance
• Context: Post-earnings drift sideways, volume drying up each contraction
• Catalysts: Strength across discounters (DG, WMT, DLTR) and bullish seasonality
• Risk: 1 % of account, stop pre-defined at 115
2. Execution
• 20 Jun – Stop-limit filled at 121.01 once intraday volume hit 2.6× ADV
• 24 Jun – Trimmed 3 sh at 129.13 (+6.7 %) to “feed the monster” and recycle BP
• 30 Jun – Trailing stop (ratcheted daily) closed remaining 7 sh at 129.94
3. Results
• Gross P&L: +86.89 USD, +7.18 % on position
• R-multiple: +1.45 R on initial risk
• Expectancy (TraderSync): +3.83 % — proof the process carries a positive edge
4. What Went Right
• Bought only after volume confirmed the breakout
• Stop never widened—only tightened
• Early partial locked in reward and removed emotional pressure
5. Improvement Plan
• Keep a 10 % “runner” until first close below 10-EMA or heavy distribution day
• Back-test a +25 % add on day-two follow-through (+2 % price, >1.5× volume)
• Simplify order flow by defaulting to single OCO brackets
OLLI
1. The Setup
• Pattern: VCP-style ascending triangle under 121 resistance
• Context: Post-earnings drift sideways, volume drying up each contraction
• Catalysts: Strength across discounters (DG, WMT, DLTR) and bullish seasonality
• Risk: 1 % of account, stop pre-defined at 115
2. Execution
• 20 Jun – Stop-limit filled at 121.01 once intraday volume hit 2.6× ADV
• 24 Jun – Trimmed 3 sh at 129.13 (+6.7 %) to “feed the monster” and recycle BP
• 30 Jun – Trailing stop (ratcheted daily) closed remaining 7 sh at 129.94
3. Results
• Gross P&L: +86.89 USD, +7.18 % on position
• R-multiple: +1.45 R on initial risk
• Expectancy (TraderSync): +3.83 % — proof the process carries a positive edge
4. What Went Right
• Bought only after volume confirmed the breakout
• Stop never widened—only tightened
• Early partial locked in reward and removed emotional pressure
5. Improvement Plan
• Keep a 10 % “runner” until first close below 10-EMA or heavy distribution day
• Back-test a +25 % add on day-two follow-through (+2 % price, >1.5× volume)
• Simplify order flow by defaulting to single OCO brackets
OLLI 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.