Downloading...

$OPEN asymmetric risk/reward

491
- Market cap is super low and rate cuts could fuel a multi bagging opportunity
- Risk of going bankrupt is not a concern for at least 2 years.
- Good R/R for a swing.
Note
With rate cuts, it's CVNA 2.0 in the making. OPEN book value at this point is more than the market cap.

P/S 0.11
Book/sh 0.89
P/B 0.88
Cash/sh 0.95
P/C 0.82
EPS this Y 35.84%

Efficient market lol
Note
- Has introduced agent led listing which is hybrid strategy along with cash offers program which will be capital light way of taking the cut as a middleman for providing leads.

- For Sellers, who want to prioritize liquidity and ease of getting cash offers asap. They can use IBuying to get rid of their property.

- For Sellers, who want to penny pinch on their listing can list it via agent route in this OPEN will take a cut for referring leads.





Note
- Based on 13 F filings, lot of institutional investors are accumulating $OPEN.
- Summer is seasonally best time for housing.
Note
- Add on dips, It should at least be above $2.5-3 based on asset it has.
- Management is trying to diversify the business model from just Ibuying which should re-rate the stock higher if they just execute.
Note
- OPEN chart looks similar to CLOV where it got revived from being dead company now to hope stage.
- Market is neglecting the fact that OPEN is planning to move to asset light model for ex allowing agents to list.
Note
Based on fibonacci retracement:

Target Points:

0.236 -> 1.67
0.382 -> 2.30
0.5 -> 2.81
0.618 -> 3.32
0.786 -> 4.05
1 -> 4.97
1.68 -> 7.64
Note
- 2026 should be good for housing market. Interest rates would be lower either way recession or no recession.

- Jerome term is coming to an end on May 2026. Next fed chair would be pro-trump and will lower interest rates.
Note
This is likely a $3+ stock before 2026 without reverse stock split basis
Note
OPEN chart is almost similar to CLOV
Note
- Fed might cut rates as early as july. There's growing dissent in the Fed committee and some fed officials are speaking the tone what Trump wants i.e lower interest rates to better position themselves for the FED chair.

- Summer is always a good month for RE seasonality wise.

- This should be a $5+ before December, 2026
Note
- Trump called out Powell to reduce interest rates. He will be leaning on someone as FED chairs who will dance to Trump's demand i.e lower interest rates which will lead to Housing revival
Note
- Trump is dead set to get Powell kicked out or force him to cut rates
Note
- Positioned for rate cuts. Today market action in home builders DHI & zillow $Z outpeforming markets signals. Traders are building position for the rate cuts.

- OPEN will benefit from rate cuts massively. Along with AFRM , UPST, $Z , DHI
Note
- Continuation of gains in housing like DHI, ZG and OPEN suggests that market participants are getting in early before the rate cuts which is highly likely.
- Inflation has cooled below 2% which means it's okay to cut interest rates.
Note
- Truflation is probably the best inflation measuring tool. It's data doesn't lag like what FED uses.
truflation.com/

- Inflation is around 1.68% well below 2%.
- Rate cuts is necessary, There are 7 trillion in money sitting in money market funds and high interests saving account.

- Lower interest rates will force these funds to buy equity or real estate which should be good for economy.
Note
- Target Point 1 (Fib level 0.236) : $1.52
- Target Point 2 (Fib level 0.382) : $2.20
- Target Point 3 (Fib level 0.5) : $2.72
- Target Point 4 (Fib level 0.618) : $3.25
- Target Point 5 (Fib level 0.786) : $3.99
- Target Point 6 (Fib level 1) : $4.94
- Extension Target Point (Fib 1.618) : $7.68
Note
- Trump calls for 3 basis point rate cut. It's even bigger than we got in 2020.
- Massive tailwind for OPEN
Note
Opendoor is innovating, key agent program got live and leveling up. This will allow agents to get their client cash offer faster. This is the move towards diversification of business and adding additional source of income + asset light approach.

opendoor.com/articles/key-agent-app
Note
Big milestone for OPEN today as it closed above $1 on July 15, 2025
Note
Another Big Milestone for OPEN today as it closed at $1.49 and above 200 SMA which means it has entered the bullish reversal territory especially with a huge volume of 250 million
Note
- Next step breaking $2 and marching towards $3 for mean reversion.
- Major catalyst : Upcoming earnings where OPEN will report its first ever positive quarter on EBITDA basis
Note
Target Point 1 (Fib level 0.236) : $1.52 was reached on July 16, 2025
Target Point 2 (Fib level 0.382) : $2.20 reached on pre-market July17, 2025

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.