🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
* Trend Channel: SPY is trading in a rising wedge formation. Price is currently nearing the top of the ascending channel with a breakout attempt forming from the wedge compression zone.
* Structure: Strong push off the 510s, now challenging key resistance near $548, which aligns with the top channel and GEX walls.
* Support Zones:
* $526 (previous breakout retest + HVL)
* $509 and $485 (key breakdown structure if momentum fades)
* Resistance Levels:
* $548.26 (local horizontal level and wedge top)
* $555-$560 (Gamma wall / 3rd CALL wall)
* Volume: Buying pressure is fading slightly as we approach key resistance, signaling a need for a catalyst to continue upward.
* RSI: Neutral to bullish, still has room to push above 60 if trend continues.
🧠 Options Sentiment – GEX [Gamma Exposure] Insights
* Highest Positive GEX Zone: $555-$560 – A significant CALL wall where market makers may resist further upside due to hedging dynamics.
* Put Support: $526 is the HVL and $520-$526 shows the strongest negative GEX cluster — meaning bulls must defend this zone.
* Max Pain Pivot: The $540 strike is sandwiched between major PUT and CALL hedging zones, meaning increased volatility is likely around here.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 67.8 – Slightly elevated, indicating traders are paying up for protection.
* PUTs 132.6% – Extreme PUT pressure. This could either fuel a gamma squeeze if we stay above $540, or lead to a violent flush if we break $526.
💡 Trade Setups & Scenarios
Bullish Case:
If SPY holds above $534-$536:
* Entry: $536 breakout
* Target: $548 → $555 → $560
* Stop: Below $526
* Strategy: Consider vertical debit CALL spreads (e.g., 535/550 or 540/560) for low-risk directional play. If IV climbs more, look at calendar CALL spreads.
Bearish Case:
If SPY loses $534 with momentum:
* Entry: $532 break or rejection from $540
* Target: $526 → $509
* Stop: Above $540
* Strategy: PUT debit spreads (e.g., 530/515), or bearish butterflies around $520 if expecting a pin into next week.
🧠 My Take
SPY is wedging at a sensitive GEX zone. Gamma walls are clearly defined on both sides. Price holding above 534 opens the door to a squeeze, but rejection at $540-$548 likely brings sellers. Watch how price reacts around $536-$540 — this is the battlefield.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
* Trend Channel: SPY is trading in a rising wedge formation. Price is currently nearing the top of the ascending channel with a breakout attempt forming from the wedge compression zone.
* Structure: Strong push off the 510s, now challenging key resistance near $548, which aligns with the top channel and GEX walls.
* Support Zones:
* $526 (previous breakout retest + HVL)
* $509 and $485 (key breakdown structure if momentum fades)
* Resistance Levels:
* $548.26 (local horizontal level and wedge top)
* $555-$560 (Gamma wall / 3rd CALL wall)
* Volume: Buying pressure is fading slightly as we approach key resistance, signaling a need for a catalyst to continue upward.
* RSI: Neutral to bullish, still has room to push above 60 if trend continues.
🧠 Options Sentiment – GEX [Gamma Exposure] Insights
* Highest Positive GEX Zone: $555-$560 – A significant CALL wall where market makers may resist further upside due to hedging dynamics.
* Put Support: $526 is the HVL and $520-$526 shows the strongest negative GEX cluster — meaning bulls must defend this zone.
* Max Pain Pivot: The $540 strike is sandwiched between major PUT and CALL hedging zones, meaning increased volatility is likely around here.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 67.8 – Slightly elevated, indicating traders are paying up for protection.
* PUTs 132.6% – Extreme PUT pressure. This could either fuel a gamma squeeze if we stay above $540, or lead to a violent flush if we break $526.
💡 Trade Setups & Scenarios
Bullish Case:
If SPY holds above $534-$536:
* Entry: $536 breakout
* Target: $548 → $555 → $560
* Stop: Below $526
* Strategy: Consider vertical debit CALL spreads (e.g., 535/550 or 540/560) for low-risk directional play. If IV climbs more, look at calendar CALL spreads.
Bearish Case:
If SPY loses $534 with momentum:
* Entry: $532 break or rejection from $540
* Target: $526 → $509
* Stop: Above $540
* Strategy: PUT debit spreads (e.g., 530/515), or bearish butterflies around $520 if expecting a pin into next week.
🧠 My Take
SPY is wedging at a sensitive GEX zone. Gamma walls are clearly defined on both sides. Price holding above 534 opens the door to a squeeze, but rejection at $540-$548 likely brings sellers. Watch how price reacts around $536-$540 — this is the battlefield.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.