🔮 Weekly 
SPY / 
SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Faces Political Pressure
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 4.25%–4.50% during its FOMC meeting midweek. While rates are unchanged, political pressure from President Trump continues as calls intensify for rate cuts and questions arise over the Fed’s independence—including dissent from Governors Waller and Bowman.
📦 Trade Truce Extends & New Deal With EU
A new trade framework with the EU reduces tariffs to 15%, easing tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese trade teams begin talks in Stockholm on Monday aiming to avoid an early-August tariff deadline.
💻 Tech and Mega-Cap Earnings Spotlight
This week features earnings from tech giants including Meta, Microsoft (Wednesday), followed by Amazon and Apple (Thursday). Markets will prioritize forward guidance around AI investments, capital expenditures, and sales trends.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, July 28
No major releases
📅 Tuesday, July 29
Chicago PMI (July flash) – early indicator of regional manufacturing trends.
Global PMIs – flash readings for Europe and Asia gauge economic health.
📅 Wednesday, July 30
FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference – investors will scrutinize tone, forward guidance on rates, labor markets, and inflation.
Q2 U.S. GDP (Advance Estimate) – expected at ~1.9%, signaling rebound after Q1 contraction.
📅 Thursday, July 31
June PCE & Core PCE Indexes – Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Core PCE expected at ~2.7% YoY.
Consumer Confidence (July) – key for household spending trends.
Trade Balance (June) – provides data on U.S. import/export dynamics.
📅 Friday, August 1
July Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment & Wage Data – forecast for ~102,000 new jobs and ~4.2% unemployment; markets await for labor-market cooling signs.
Tariff Deadline – new tariffs loom unless trade agreements with EU, Canada, China etc. materialize by today’s cutoff.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This summary is educational and informational only. It is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #inflation #tariffs #GDP #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025 🔮🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Faces Political Pressure
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 4.25%–4.50% during its FOMC meeting midweek. While rates are unchanged, political pressure from President Trump continues as calls intensify for rate cuts and questions arise over the Fed’s independence—including dissent from Governors Waller and Bowman.
📦 Trade Truce Extends & New Deal With EU
A new trade framework with the EU reduces tariffs to 15%, easing tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese trade teams begin talks in Stockholm on Monday aiming to avoid an early-August tariff deadline.
💻 Tech and Mega-Cap Earnings Spotlight
This week features earnings from tech giants including Meta, Microsoft (Wednesday), followed by Amazon and Apple (Thursday). Markets will prioritize forward guidance around AI investments, capital expenditures, and sales trends.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, July 28
No major releases
📅 Tuesday, July 29
Chicago PMI (July flash) – early indicator of regional manufacturing trends.
Global PMIs – flash readings for Europe and Asia gauge economic health.
📅 Wednesday, July 30
FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference – investors will scrutinize tone, forward guidance on rates, labor markets, and inflation.
Q2 U.S. GDP (Advance Estimate) – expected at ~1.9%, signaling rebound after Q1 contraction.
📅 Thursday, July 31
June PCE & Core PCE Indexes – Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Core PCE expected at ~2.7% YoY.
Consumer Confidence (July) – key for household spending trends.
Trade Balance (June) – provides data on U.S. import/export dynamics.
📅 Friday, August 1
July Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment & Wage Data – forecast for ~102,000 new jobs and ~4.2% unemployment; markets await for labor-market cooling signs.
Tariff Deadline – new tariffs loom unless trade agreements with EU, Canada, China etc. materialize by today’s cutoff.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This summary is educational and informational only. It is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #inflation #tariffs #GDP #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.