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SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Short
Updated

Doesn't Seem Finished

302
Haven't posted here in a while, but here goes the usual blabber.

Moved from working in tech to FinTech, closer to the action now. But that came with a lot of realizations. Lot of reality checks pulverizing my forehead. Like most of us, I have become a lot more cynical with the system.

In the time I've spent trading, I haven't been wildly profitable. I am no longer young, but still have kept plenty of naivete and impulse. If I was one of the greats, I sure haven't realized it yet. I've traded since the day I turned 18, with some long breaks between. The plan was never to get rich, since my bankroll was always too small - it was to garner as much as pain and experience as I could, before I made some "real" money, so that I can bypass all the early mistakes most of us make before I incur serious, lifechanging losses. My first girlfriend's brother advised this, and it has arguably been one of the best decisions I have ever made. Thanks, Chad. If you ever find this by some miracle, hit me up for a Tsingtao. Same number, but not the same person anymore.

In the 7, almost 8 years of charting, yelling, disillusionment and spitting at Cramer, I've gone through almost every single emotion and experience a trader could have. I have made the dumbest decisions possible. I have fallen for stupid hype, and didn't act on high confidence trades that probably could've changed my life. I've sold and bought too early, too late, and just on time. I've bought high and sold low, and vice versa. I've gained nothing, and everything. I've lost the same. I'm not sure if I've found what I've set out to, but I'm sure as hell past the "Peak of Stupidity" in the Dunning-Kruger curve. I'm barely sure I know a single thing more than when I started, and that's proof I've progressed at least a tiny bit. I've studied and tried everything from Gann, Wave, Smart Money, Volume, setups, lines, curves, trend, moon cycles... and the paranoia of "market makers" most of us end up in. The truth and fact is that all these things are useful, and completely worthless as well.

In my short little life, I've seen people lose up to quarter of a million on a single trade. My ex-girlfriend's father all-inned at the top of Covid-19, and was convinced to sell near the bottom - they lost a house and a happy marriage over that. My coworker bought into DOGE Dogecoin/other memecoins at near the peak. His wife divorced him, and he still solicits me over text sometimes to try to get my opinion on some new shitcoin. In retrospect, my worst days are miniscule. In hindsight, all the insane losses I've punished myself and haunted myself with, was probably a penny to some of the richer kids I've met and befriended in college. I feel I have struggled so much, so hard for nothing over the years, with absolutely nothing to show for. My understanding is that there is no lottery ticket, no get-rich-quick scheme, no secret. We all know this, but we still hope. You either have to sell your soul, your life, or your dignity. Or all three. And most of the times, that's still not enough. I'm guilty of buying a few lottery tickets after a rough day, all to end up with some meaningless pieces of paper in my hand. Another $2 donated to the state.

After all these years, what I do have, however, is an ache. A desperation. A hope for something more. For what exactly? I'm sure none of us knows. Anything chased is never as good as we believe it'll be, and in that moment of realization, we only begin to yearn for something anew. And so, the cycle repeats ad infinitum.

I've let personal biases and emotions push and throw me around. Fair enough, sometimes they did lead me to some of my best trades. But often times, my worst. I'm sure we've all been there. There's no escaping that, ever. Every trader who talks of discipline and firmness of mind have never been truly broken before. You can't pretend there are no waves, and you sure aren't gliding over them; you ride alongside with them, and let them push and pull you to where you need to be. Trading against the tide is the dumbest thing we all do, and the most painful lesson you'll never stop learning.

The great thing about getting older is that you start to hurt less. You start caring less. You start accepting, rather than challenging. New things are scary and uncomfortable, and you no longer yearn for the excitement but rather the familiar. The reasonable. The simple and proven. I no longer stand in the pits or against the barriers, but in the edges and the balconies. I look down, and wonder why everyone is so difficult, so abrasive. Why can't we all sit down? My knees ache, and my back hurts. I think about how my beer costs far too much, and the emails I have to respond to tomorrow morning. I sigh, and put my concert earplugs on - can't risk losing any more hearing, or I won't be able to hear my Teams notifications.

This is all very great for risk adversity, but it kills the soul bit by bit, piece by piece. New music, new food, and new experiences are no longer as gratifying. Neuroplasticity has taken a hit, and so has my receptors. I can't remember ever feeling more bored by beautiful things until today, and I know tomorrow is only the same, but worse. We require more, spend more, yearn more as we grow, but find ourselves ever so less gratified. Our beautiful wives become just our wives, and the money is our bank account is always too small. A trip to the middle of the desert in college seemed like a dream, now a trip to Hawaii seems... inadequate.

I'm sure now, $20 at 20 is worth something close to $300 at 30. Put that against the SPY, will you?

Anyways, enough rambling. I have another high conviction call for you. Something I have enough "Fuck You" money to bet on, and my first "grown-up" play. I have made some bad calls before, and some I've probably been so right I could have been halfway to retirement by now. This is closer to the latter, I'm sure of it.

I'm not going to bother explaining everything - it's a huge waste of time like this post, and anyone interested enough should do their own due diligence. God, I sound like you guys now. Keywords are Miran, Triffin Dilemma, and my strong belief that BRICS will never put together a functioning currency. Taiwan vs China, India vs Pakistan, Ukraine vs Russia. All should wrap up soon. The tariff gambit with China and the rest of the nations is all noise, as it concluded today, for yet another 90 days. Technical indicators show a massive downtrend pending on monthly, and the market is hunting for a reason. Divergence in shorter timescales.

Worst comes to worst, maybe I'll convert back to Christianity if everything goes to shit. Give up all my material possessions, become a monk. The pope is from Chicago, and I just moved here. Perhaps a sign, but the market tells me it's a coincidence. But I'm sure my girlfriend wouldn't appreciate that, and being Korean, perhaps Buddhism would suit me better anyways.

I also changed my name, by the way. Why the hell not. Life is short, better go trading.
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