SUI is back in focus as price pushes into a critical zone of resistance that has capped previous rallies. With key moving averages reclaimed and volume shifting in favour of bulls, the question now is simple - can it break free, or is this another trap before rotation lower?
Let’s break down the current structure and what comes next!
SUI is trading at a critical inflection point after staging a strong recovery off the March and April lows. The broader context shows a market transitioning from a bearish phase into a more constructive accumulation structure. The recent price action has been guided largely by reclaiming key areas of previous acceptance and value.
However, sellers are still active at the upper bounds of this range. The next few sessions will determine whether SUI transitions into full breakout mode or requires further consolidation below resistance.
⦿ Volume Profile
The Value Area Low (VAL) is anchored around $1.62. This area marked the exhaustion point for sellers, triggering the current recovery leg.
The Point of Control (POC), which represents the highest traded volume zone, sits at approximately $2.27. This zone acted as a magnet for price through May and June and is now firmly reclaimed, reinforcing its importance as a structural support.
The Value Area High (VAH) comes in at $3.82. Price has recently reclaimed this level, which suggests buyers have shifted control of the auction. Acceptance above the VAH often implies that the previous range is no longer valid and a new range expansion could be underway.
⦿ Key Technical Insights
Several technical levels align with this recovery. The 200-day MA and the anchored VWAP from the all-time high converge between $3.00 and $3.50. This area has been successfully reclaimed and held, adding further conviction to the bullish case.
Above current prices, $4.12 represents the Yearly Open and a clear horizontal supply level. The market has shown hesitation here, as expected. The price action suggests sellers are attempting to defend this zone, but the overall structure remains bullish as long as higher lows are maintained.
Support levels to monitor include $3.82, the Value Area High, and $3.50, where both the VWAP and the 200-day Moving Average provide dynamic support. Below that, the POC at $2.27 remains a crucial level of last defense for bulls.
⦿ Market Structure
Structurally, the market has transitioned from a downtrend into a rounded bottom formation, which typically precedes more sustained uptrends. The higher low structure since the March lows confirms this shift. The recent push above both the POC and VAH further validates the strength of this reversal.
Volume has supported this breakout. We saw clear expansion through the $3.00 handle, suggesting conviction among buyers. The visible consolidation just below $4.12 reflects natural supply pressure but not yet evidence of distribution.
⦿ Scenarios to Consider
1. Bullish Scenario:
If buyers manage to establish acceptance above $4.12, particularly with daily closes through this level, the path higher opens cleanly. The low-volume node between $4.12 and approximately $5.00 suggests limited resistance in this zone. Price could expand swiftly toward $5.36 to $6.00 as a first target.
2. Healthy Pullback Scenario:
Should price reject the $4.12 zone, a pullback toward $3.82 or even $3.50 would be healthy and expected. As long as the structure of higher lows remains intact and price holds above the reclaimed POC at $2.27, this pullback would likely serve as a base for the next leg higher.
3. Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
A sustained loss of $3.00 would be the first real warning sign for bulls. Breaking below the POC at $2.27 would suggest a failed breakout and could see the price cycle back toward the lower end of the volume profile, targeting $2.26 or even the Value Area Low at $1.62. However, given current strength, this scenario looks less likely unless broader market sentiment shifts.
I’m primarily focused on bullish scenarios or potential pullbacks, as the current market looks stronger compared to a few months ago. I believe we’re likely to see some decent long opportunities moving forward.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 👇
⚠️ Disclaimer
As always, this post is purely for educational purposes. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. Or at the very least, consult your cat. 🐱
Let’s break down the current structure and what comes next!
SUI is trading at a critical inflection point after staging a strong recovery off the March and April lows. The broader context shows a market transitioning from a bearish phase into a more constructive accumulation structure. The recent price action has been guided largely by reclaiming key areas of previous acceptance and value.
However, sellers are still active at the upper bounds of this range. The next few sessions will determine whether SUI transitions into full breakout mode or requires further consolidation below resistance.
⦿ Volume Profile
The Value Area Low (VAL) is anchored around $1.62. This area marked the exhaustion point for sellers, triggering the current recovery leg.
The Point of Control (POC), which represents the highest traded volume zone, sits at approximately $2.27. This zone acted as a magnet for price through May and June and is now firmly reclaimed, reinforcing its importance as a structural support.
The Value Area High (VAH) comes in at $3.82. Price has recently reclaimed this level, which suggests buyers have shifted control of the auction. Acceptance above the VAH often implies that the previous range is no longer valid and a new range expansion could be underway.
⦿ Key Technical Insights
Several technical levels align with this recovery. The 200-day MA and the anchored VWAP from the all-time high converge between $3.00 and $3.50. This area has been successfully reclaimed and held, adding further conviction to the bullish case.
Above current prices, $4.12 represents the Yearly Open and a clear horizontal supply level. The market has shown hesitation here, as expected. The price action suggests sellers are attempting to defend this zone, but the overall structure remains bullish as long as higher lows are maintained.
Support levels to monitor include $3.82, the Value Area High, and $3.50, where both the VWAP and the 200-day Moving Average provide dynamic support. Below that, the POC at $2.27 remains a crucial level of last defense for bulls.
⦿ Market Structure
Structurally, the market has transitioned from a downtrend into a rounded bottom formation, which typically precedes more sustained uptrends. The higher low structure since the March lows confirms this shift. The recent push above both the POC and VAH further validates the strength of this reversal.
Volume has supported this breakout. We saw clear expansion through the $3.00 handle, suggesting conviction among buyers. The visible consolidation just below $4.12 reflects natural supply pressure but not yet evidence of distribution.
⦿ Scenarios to Consider
1. Bullish Scenario:
If buyers manage to establish acceptance above $4.12, particularly with daily closes through this level, the path higher opens cleanly. The low-volume node between $4.12 and approximately $5.00 suggests limited resistance in this zone. Price could expand swiftly toward $5.36 to $6.00 as a first target.
2. Healthy Pullback Scenario:
Should price reject the $4.12 zone, a pullback toward $3.82 or even $3.50 would be healthy and expected. As long as the structure of higher lows remains intact and price holds above the reclaimed POC at $2.27, this pullback would likely serve as a base for the next leg higher.
3. Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
A sustained loss of $3.00 would be the first real warning sign for bulls. Breaking below the POC at $2.27 would suggest a failed breakout and could see the price cycle back toward the lower end of the volume profile, targeting $2.26 or even the Value Area Low at $1.62. However, given current strength, this scenario looks less likely unless broader market sentiment shifts.
I’m primarily focused on bullish scenarios or potential pullbacks, as the current market looks stronger compared to a few months ago. I believe we’re likely to see some decent long opportunities moving forward.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 👇
⚠️ Disclaimer
As always, this post is purely for educational purposes. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. Or at the very least, consult your cat. 🐱
Global Community Manager,
TradingView
TradingView
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Global Community Manager,
TradingView
TradingView
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.