📝 Recent Performance
Q1 FY26
Net profit: ₹12,760 crore (↑6% YoY) .
Revenue: ₹63,437 crore (↓2.2% YoY), third consecutive quarterly decline .
Margins remained solid (~24%) .
Stock Momentum
Broke below key technical support post-Q1; could drop another ~5% .
2025 is the worst-performing sector—IT stocks down ~14%, TCS down ~21% YTD .
🌍 Key Headwinds
Global macro slowdown (geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. tariffs) dampening IT spending .
New bench policy causing employee anxiety — could affect productivity .
Client spending delays in North America, weak sectors like auto/manufacturing seen at other peers .
💡 Catalysts to Watch
Deal pipeline strength: Q1 bookings strong in BFSI & Americas — new deals worth ~$8.3 B .
AI and growth segments: TCS reported AI-infused and cloud pipelines now at ~$1.5 B .
Technical rebound: Stock approaching support/resistance zones between ₹3,150–₹3,600 .
🚀 Outlook: Will TCS Go Up?
Scenario Probability Price Outlook
Base Case 🌤 Moderate ₹3,100–₹3,600: range-bound until spending improves
Bullish Case 📈 Conditional ₹3,700+ if major IT deals (AI/cloud) accelerate
Bearish Case 📉 Possible ₹2,900–₹3,050 if global tech slowdown worsens
✅ Summary
Reason for caution: Slowing revenues, sector weakness, macro uncertainties.
Reasons for optimism: Consistent profitability, strong AI/cloud pipeline, and positive deal wins.
If global IT spending recovers (driven by AI/cloud), TCS could rebound toward ₹3,700+. Until then, it may trade in the ₹3,100–₹3,600 range.
Q1 FY26
Net profit: ₹12,760 crore (↑6% YoY) .
Revenue: ₹63,437 crore (↓2.2% YoY), third consecutive quarterly decline .
Margins remained solid (~24%) .
Stock Momentum
Broke below key technical support post-Q1; could drop another ~5% .
2025 is the worst-performing sector—IT stocks down ~14%, TCS down ~21% YTD .
🌍 Key Headwinds
Global macro slowdown (geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. tariffs) dampening IT spending .
New bench policy causing employee anxiety — could affect productivity .
Client spending delays in North America, weak sectors like auto/manufacturing seen at other peers .
💡 Catalysts to Watch
Deal pipeline strength: Q1 bookings strong in BFSI & Americas — new deals worth ~$8.3 B .
AI and growth segments: TCS reported AI-infused and cloud pipelines now at ~$1.5 B .
Technical rebound: Stock approaching support/resistance zones between ₹3,150–₹3,600 .
🚀 Outlook: Will TCS Go Up?
Scenario Probability Price Outlook
Base Case 🌤 Moderate ₹3,100–₹3,600: range-bound until spending improves
Bullish Case 📈 Conditional ₹3,700+ if major IT deals (AI/cloud) accelerate
Bearish Case 📉 Possible ₹2,900–₹3,050 if global tech slowdown worsens
✅ Summary
Reason for caution: Slowing revenues, sector weakness, macro uncertainties.
Reasons for optimism: Consistent profitability, strong AI/cloud pipeline, and positive deal wins.
If global IT spending recovers (driven by AI/cloud), TCS could rebound toward ₹3,700+. Until then, it may trade in the ₹3,100–₹3,600 range.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.