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MARKETS week ahead: July 27 – August 2

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Last week in the news

Trade tariff (un)certainties shaped market sentiment during the previous week. The US-Japan trade deal was settled which brought some relaxation among investors. The US equities continued with a positive trend, with the S & P 500 reaching fresh all time highest level, ending the week at 6.388. On the same ground the price of gold turned a bit toward the downside, closing the week at $3.336. The relaxation was evident also in 10Y US Treasury yields, which closed Friday trading session at 4,38%. BTC had a short liquidation session on Friday, shortly reaching the $115K level, however, swiftly returned back toward the $118K.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its July meeting during the previous week, where it held interest rates steady after seven consecutive cuts, signalling a more cautious approach going forward. While its macroeconomic outlook remains unchanged, the ECB sees downside risks to growth, including global trade tensions and weak market sentiment. President Lagarde downplayed concerns about the stronger euro and minor inflation undershooting, emphasizing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting policy stance. Although the ECB appears comfortable with its current position, a final rate cut in September is still possible if inflation or macro data disappoint.

President Trump announced a major trade deal with Japan this week, featuring a 15% reciprocal tariff, marking a shift in bilateral trade relations. The U.S. also reached a framework agreement with Indonesia, reinforcing efforts to strengthen trade ties across Asia. Trump signalled that more deals may be finalized before the August 1 tariff deadline, including potential progress with the EU, as a meeting with Commission President von der Leyen is set for Sunday in Scotland. These developments have been well received by investors, easing concerns over trade uncertainty and potential supply chain disruptions.

China unveiled a global AI action plan at the World Artificial Intelligence conference in Shanghai, calling for international cooperation on technology development and governance. Premier Li Qiang proposed establishing a global AI cooperation organization to coordinate regulation and infrastructure, emphasizing equitable access. The plan positions China in contrast to the U.S., favoring multilateralism over America's more block-oriented approach to AI strategy. Featuring participation from over 800 companies including domestic giants Huawei and Alibaba, the conference showcased thousands of AI innovations and signals China's ambition to challenge U.S. dominance in the field.

Palantir's stock achieved a new record high last Friday, rising over 2% and lifting its market cap to around $375B. With the latest move, the company is now holding 20th place as the most valuable U.S. company. The company's shares have more than doubled this year as investors' enthusiasm grows around its AI capabilities and government contract momentum. Analysts attribute the rally to Palantir's strengthened role in AI analytics and expansion in defence-related software and data contracts.




CRYPTO MARKET

The crypto market was traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. Some liquidations were made in BTC, followed by altcoins, however, there were also coins with relatively solid weekly performance. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 1% on a weekly basis, adding total $39B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of $275B on a daily basis, from $333B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at +19%, with a total funds inflow of $600B.

BTC had a relatively flat week, with only $3B of funds inflow. On the other hand ETH continues to perform strongly, with another week in a positive territory of 5,3%, increasing its cap by $23B. XRP did not perform well on a weekly basis, as the coin had a drop in value of 7,4% and outflow of $15B. Some of the significant weekly gainers include Litecoin, with a surge of 13% on a weekly basis, Maker was traded higher by 14%, BNB gained 7%, while Solana was higher by 5% same as Uniswap. Other altcoins were traded either with a modest drop in value or with a modest increase in value.

There has been increased activity with circulating coins. Another week in a row, IOTA is increasing the number of coins on the market by 0,8% w/w. EOS had an increase of 0,6%, same as Polkadot. The majority of other altcoins had a modest increase of circulating coins of 0,1%, including XRP.


Crypto futures market

This week the crypto futures market reflected perfectly developments on the spot market, with ETH long term futures managed to pass the $4K level.

BTC futures were traded mostly flat compared to the previous week. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $120.810, and those maturing in December 2026 were last traded at $127.500. At the same time, ETH futures were traded around 2,5% higher for all maturities. Futures ending in December 2025 reached the last price at $3.779, while those maturing in December 2026 for the first time ended the trading week at $4.058.

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