Is Your Altcoin on the Chopping Block?
-Update: Originally posted on July 8, 2025… but swiftly vanished into the void by a moderator (rookie mistake—I neglected the sacred posting rules). Turns out, publishing has rules… that I did not interpret accurately?
To my loyal circle of 5 followers: if this feels like déjà vu, my sincerest apologies for the rerun. But with the winds shifting and the drums beating for alts season, I figured it was worth a resurrection.
Let the thrills—and the calls—begin. 🎭📈
Whenever you see “-Update:” that’s the latest as of today — 07/18/25.
Is Your Altcoin on the Chopping Block? 🪓
Brace yourself—this might sting.
Odds are, your favorite altcoin is walking a tightrope. And while I’m not here to spread doom, I am here to give you a wake-up call. Don’t shoot the messenger.
TradingView recently dropped a chart that cuts through the noise: Total3ESBTC.
It’s a ratio of the Total Crypto Market Cap (minus BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) to Bitcoin.
Translation?
👉 A clear, undistorted look at how the altcoin market is actually doing—without ETH clouding the view or stablecoins muddying the waters.
Think of it like night-vision goggles for spotting altcoin strength—or weakness—in the shadows of BTC dominance.
Perfect tool to sniff out market rotation—that sweet spot where Bitcoin hands the baton to alts or rips it back.
So why should you care?
Because the writing's on the wall... and most altcoins might not survive what's coming.
Let’s break it down:
ZOOMED OUT – MONTHLY VIEW 🔭
Before every major altcoin run, there’s always a major low.
You’ll notice three big ones:
🔴 March 2017 (Pink Line)
🟣 Dec 2017 (Purple Line)
🟢 Jan 2021 (Green Line)
Yes, some individual alts have pumped. A few even went full parabolic.
But if altcoins as a whole were ready to fly? They would've taken off already.
-Update: Yes, they finally did it this week… but hold that excitement—there’s more to the story.
Instead, the altcoin ratio broke a critical support (White Line) back in May... and even closed below it. That’s not bullish—it’s a red flag flapping in the wind.
– Update: We just sliced through that white line, but for most alt’s to stay strong, we need a monthly close above it.
Strangely enough (or coincidental, if you believe in coincidences) ...
🗓️ All the major altcoin market highs happened in MAY.
Not once. Not twice. Every. Single. Time.
🔴 May 2017
🟣 May 2018
🟢 May 2021
Call it coincidence. Call it cycle magic.
Maybe it’s a message from the crypto gods—and they don’t whisper for no reason.
So if we just had another May, and the ratio is still sliding with no reversal in sight… ask yourself:
Was that the high?
Or are we still heading toward the low that resets the board?
Here’s the hard pill 💊
If altcoins are ever going to go up again, odds are they’ll need to hit one of these historical lows first.
That’s not a prediction. It’s just how the markets have moved before major alt run.
📉 That means more pain ahead.
We’re talking potential drops of:
🔻 -32% to revisit Dec '17 levels
🔻 -51% to retest Jan '21 lows
🔻 -85% if we go full wipeout to March '17
Harsh? Yeah.
But better you hear it now than wonder “what happened?” when the floor caves in.
The worst part?
Most won’t believe this until it’s already too late.
-Update: Those lows haven’t been tested yet—might be wise to hold off on loading your bags to the brim. Patience pays.
Now here’s the uncomfortable twist:
There’s a legit case to be made that we may never see another “real” alt season again.
Why?
🪙 Liquidity is being siphoned by stablecoins
📈 Speculation is migrating to AI stocks
⚠️ Risk appetite is narrowing
Altcoins used to be the Wild West. Now? They’re the illiquid backyard of a global casino.
BUT… Let’s put on our degen-tinted glasses for a second.
Suppose the Fed hits the panic button:
🛩️ Rates cut
💸 QE returns
🚁 Helicopter money rains from the sky (not that they’d ever do that… right?)
– Update: Crypto Week is announced and broadcasted to the herd.
What happens then?
That’s when this chart—this ugly, broken, bleeding chart—might finally spring back to life.
– Update: Clearing those lows would’ve made this week feel a lot more convincing. But if you’re looking for signs of life—ETH/BTC chart might just be lighting the way. 🚀
Stay Sharp! 🐋R hUNTING!
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUTAINMENT PUPOSES ONLY.
To my loyal circle of 5 followers: if this feels like déjà vu, my sincerest apologies for the rerun. But with the winds shifting and the drums beating for alts season, I figured it was worth a resurrection.
Let the thrills—and the calls—begin. 🎭📈
Whenever you see “-Update:” that’s the latest as of today — 07/18/25.
Is Your Altcoin on the Chopping Block? 🪓
Brace yourself—this might sting.
Odds are, your favorite altcoin is walking a tightrope. And while I’m not here to spread doom, I am here to give you a wake-up call. Don’t shoot the messenger.
TradingView recently dropped a chart that cuts through the noise: Total3ESBTC.
It’s a ratio of the Total Crypto Market Cap (minus BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) to Bitcoin.
Translation?
👉 A clear, undistorted look at how the altcoin market is actually doing—without ETH clouding the view or stablecoins muddying the waters.
Think of it like night-vision goggles for spotting altcoin strength—or weakness—in the shadows of BTC dominance.
Perfect tool to sniff out market rotation—that sweet spot where Bitcoin hands the baton to alts or rips it back.
So why should you care?
Because the writing's on the wall... and most altcoins might not survive what's coming.
Let’s break it down:
ZOOMED OUT – MONTHLY VIEW 🔭
Before every major altcoin run, there’s always a major low.
You’ll notice three big ones:
🔴 March 2017 (Pink Line)
🟣 Dec 2017 (Purple Line)
🟢 Jan 2021 (Green Line)
Yes, some individual alts have pumped. A few even went full parabolic.
But if altcoins as a whole were ready to fly? They would've taken off already.
-Update: Yes, they finally did it this week… but hold that excitement—there’s more to the story.
Instead, the altcoin ratio broke a critical support (White Line) back in May... and even closed below it. That’s not bullish—it’s a red flag flapping in the wind.
– Update: We just sliced through that white line, but for most alt’s to stay strong, we need a monthly close above it.
Strangely enough (or coincidental, if you believe in coincidences) ...
🗓️ All the major altcoin market highs happened in MAY.
Not once. Not twice. Every. Single. Time.
🔴 May 2017
🟣 May 2018
🟢 May 2021
Call it coincidence. Call it cycle magic.
Maybe it’s a message from the crypto gods—and they don’t whisper for no reason.
So if we just had another May, and the ratio is still sliding with no reversal in sight… ask yourself:
Was that the high?
Or are we still heading toward the low that resets the board?
Here’s the hard pill 💊
If altcoins are ever going to go up again, odds are they’ll need to hit one of these historical lows first.
That’s not a prediction. It’s just how the markets have moved before major alt run.
📉 That means more pain ahead.
We’re talking potential drops of:
🔻 -32% to revisit Dec '17 levels
🔻 -51% to retest Jan '21 lows
🔻 -85% if we go full wipeout to March '17
Harsh? Yeah.
But better you hear it now than wonder “what happened?” when the floor caves in.
The worst part?
Most won’t believe this until it’s already too late.
-Update: Those lows haven’t been tested yet—might be wise to hold off on loading your bags to the brim. Patience pays.
Now here’s the uncomfortable twist:
There’s a legit case to be made that we may never see another “real” alt season again.
Why?
🪙 Liquidity is being siphoned by stablecoins
📈 Speculation is migrating to AI stocks
⚠️ Risk appetite is narrowing
Altcoins used to be the Wild West. Now? They’re the illiquid backyard of a global casino.
BUT… Let’s put on our degen-tinted glasses for a second.
Suppose the Fed hits the panic button:
🛩️ Rates cut
💸 QE returns
🚁 Helicopter money rains from the sky (not that they’d ever do that… right?)
– Update: Crypto Week is announced and broadcasted to the herd.
What happens then?
That’s when this chart—this ugly, broken, bleeding chart—might finally spring back to life.
– Update: Clearing those lows would’ve made this week feel a lot more convincing. But if you’re looking for signs of life—ETH/BTC chart might just be lighting the way. 🚀
Stay Sharp! 🐋R hUNTING!
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUTAINMENT PUPOSES ONLY.
For crypto charts, trading insight and the patterns in my head.
Follow on X: @TheAplhaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Follow on X: @TheAplhaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For crypto charts, trading insight and the patterns in my head.
Follow on X: @TheAplhaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Follow on X: @TheAplhaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.