🔍 Technical Analysis (1H + 15M Confluence)
* Market Structure: After a steep drop from $334, TSLA has shown a recovery off the $300.41 low. The 1H chart shows a bounce forming higher lows, with price now consolidating around $317–$318.
* SMC Insight (15M): The bullish BOS and CHoCH signal a structural shift. Price has respected the ascending channel and reacted from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) inside a purple supply zone near $323–$325, indicating short-term resistance.
* Volume Analysis: Volume increased on the bullish move off $302.5 demand zone, indicating possible accumulation, but stalled near resistance.
🔐 Key Supply & Demand Levels:
* Demand Zones (Support):
* $302.5 (1H GEX HVL zone + volume demand)
* $300.41 (last low & liquidity pocket)
* Supply Zones (Resistance):
* $323.62–$325 (15M supply + GEX resistance zone)
* $334–$338 (GEX7/High wall)
📈 Options Sentiment – GEX & Flow
* Gamma Walls (Resistance):
* $317–$323: Heavy CALL walls, especially at $320 (Gamma Wall)
* $335–$338: Strong GEX7 / GEX9 resistance — potential magnet only if TSLA breaks 325 cleanly
* PUT Walls (Support):
* $302.5: HVL + PUT support
* $295 & $290: Lower extreme GEX support (panic defense zones)
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 7.1 (very low — cheap premiums)
* IVx avg: 51.7 (slightly elevated fear)
* Call Bias: 68.8% bullish
* GEX Sentiment: ✅✅✅ bullish until $325, then neutral-to-risky
🎯 Trade Setups
✅ Bullish Setup (if price holds above $316–317):
* Entry: 317.50–318.00 (current consolidation)
* Target 1: 323.50 (supply)
* Target 2: 334.00 (GEX9 magnet)
* Stop-loss: 312.70 (SMC breaker structure + 15M CHoCH invalidation)
Scalp Target: 323 Swing Target: 334 Add Calls (weekly): Only above 320 breakout with volume.
❌ Bearish Setup (if price loses 312.70):
* Entry: < 312.50 breakdown
* Target 1: 305.30 (mid-demand)
* Target 2: 302.50 (HVL & GEX PUT support)
* Stop-loss: 316.10 (back inside channel, bullish flip invalid)
Scalp Target: 305 Swing Target: 302.5 Add Puts: Only below 312.5 with confirmation candle.
⚖️ Bias & Scenario Outlook:
* Neutral-to-Bullish Bias: As long as price holds above 316 and respects the ascending trendline.
* Risk Zone: 323–325 = possible reversal zone (heavy GEX wall + supply)
* Gamma Flip Above: 325 opens up 334–338.
📌 Conclusion:
TSLA is compressing between supply and demand. Monday’s price action around 317–320 will be key. A break above 320 could fuel a GEX chase to 334, while rejection may trigger a pullback toward 305–302. Stay nimble and let price confirm direction around key GEX walls and SMC structure.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
* Market Structure: After a steep drop from $334, TSLA has shown a recovery off the $300.41 low. The 1H chart shows a bounce forming higher lows, with price now consolidating around $317–$318.
* SMC Insight (15M): The bullish BOS and CHoCH signal a structural shift. Price has respected the ascending channel and reacted from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) inside a purple supply zone near $323–$325, indicating short-term resistance.
* Volume Analysis: Volume increased on the bullish move off $302.5 demand zone, indicating possible accumulation, but stalled near resistance.
🔐 Key Supply & Demand Levels:
* Demand Zones (Support):
* $302.5 (1H GEX HVL zone + volume demand)
* $300.41 (last low & liquidity pocket)
* Supply Zones (Resistance):
* $323.62–$325 (15M supply + GEX resistance zone)
* $334–$338 (GEX7/High wall)
📈 Options Sentiment – GEX & Flow
* Gamma Walls (Resistance):
* $317–$323: Heavy CALL walls, especially at $320 (Gamma Wall)
* $335–$338: Strong GEX7 / GEX9 resistance — potential magnet only if TSLA breaks 325 cleanly
* PUT Walls (Support):
* $302.5: HVL + PUT support
* $295 & $290: Lower extreme GEX support (panic defense zones)
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 7.1 (very low — cheap premiums)
* IVx avg: 51.7 (slightly elevated fear)
* Call Bias: 68.8% bullish
* GEX Sentiment: ✅✅✅ bullish until $325, then neutral-to-risky
🎯 Trade Setups
✅ Bullish Setup (if price holds above $316–317):
* Entry: 317.50–318.00 (current consolidation)
* Target 1: 323.50 (supply)
* Target 2: 334.00 (GEX9 magnet)
* Stop-loss: 312.70 (SMC breaker structure + 15M CHoCH invalidation)
Scalp Target: 323 Swing Target: 334 Add Calls (weekly): Only above 320 breakout with volume.
❌ Bearish Setup (if price loses 312.70):
* Entry: < 312.50 breakdown
* Target 1: 305.30 (mid-demand)
* Target 2: 302.50 (HVL & GEX PUT support)
* Stop-loss: 316.10 (back inside channel, bullish flip invalid)
Scalp Target: 305 Swing Target: 302.5 Add Puts: Only below 312.5 with confirmation candle.
⚖️ Bias & Scenario Outlook:
* Neutral-to-Bullish Bias: As long as price holds above 316 and respects the ascending trendline.
* Risk Zone: 323–325 = possible reversal zone (heavy GEX wall + supply)
* Gamma Flip Above: 325 opens up 334–338.
📌 Conclusion:
TSLA is compressing between supply and demand. Monday’s price action around 317–320 will be key. A break above 320 could fuel a GEX chase to 334, while rejection may trigger a pullback toward 305–302. Stay nimble and let price confirm direction around key GEX walls and SMC structure.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.