USDCAD has formed a classic falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, with price currently pressing against the upper trendline resistance near 1.37300. This is a high-probability bullish reversal setup, and the pair is showing early signs of a potential breakout. The recent bullish momentum from the lows suggests buyers are stepping in aggressively, and if we get a strong daily close above the wedge, it could confirm the start of a new upward leg. My near-term target for this breakout is 1.47300, offering an excellent risk-reward profile.
From a fundamental perspective, the Canadian Dollar is currently under pressure due to weakening oil prices and softening domestic economic data. The Bank of Canada has recently signaled a dovish tilt following its latest rate cut in June, citing slower GDP growth and easing inflation. On the other hand, the US Dollar is finding renewed strength backed by sticky inflation and the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and BoC is creating a favorable environment for USDCAD bulls.
Technically, the confluence of wedge resistance, bullish divergence on the RSI, and a clear higher low formation all point toward a breakout scenario. A break above 1.37600–1.38000 would unlock the next wave of bullish continuation, potentially accelerating momentum toward the 1.47 handle. This area also aligns with the previous March highs, making it a strong technical magnet.
I remain bullish on USDCAD and will be watching the breakout closely this week. If the pair holds above 1.36800 and breaks structure convincingly, I’ll be adding to longs on confirmation. The current setup presents a textbook breakout opportunity supported by strong fundamentals, technical structure, and market sentiment leaning in favor of the USD.
From a fundamental perspective, the Canadian Dollar is currently under pressure due to weakening oil prices and softening domestic economic data. The Bank of Canada has recently signaled a dovish tilt following its latest rate cut in June, citing slower GDP growth and easing inflation. On the other hand, the US Dollar is finding renewed strength backed by sticky inflation and the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and BoC is creating a favorable environment for USDCAD bulls.
Technically, the confluence of wedge resistance, bullish divergence on the RSI, and a clear higher low formation all point toward a breakout scenario. A break above 1.37600–1.38000 would unlock the next wave of bullish continuation, potentially accelerating momentum toward the 1.47 handle. This area also aligns with the previous March highs, making it a strong technical magnet.
I remain bullish on USDCAD and will be watching the breakout closely this week. If the pair holds above 1.36800 and breaks structure convincingly, I’ll be adding to longs on confirmation. The current setup presents a textbook breakout opportunity supported by strong fundamentals, technical structure, and market sentiment leaning in favor of the USD.
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Join our Forex Community Telegram group and connect with thousands of traders.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.