Hey all, big trip coming up this week so I decided to post this idea a little earlier. If you've been following some of my ideas then you'll know i'm a big fan of this pair - even if it hasn't been too cooperative with formations. I've noticed the USD settling in following Trump's presidency (despite the odd statement that makes it go haywire), so here I'm speculating about an apparent Double Top formation that may ultimately drop to the 1.32 mark. Target 1 here can also double as a more conservative entry as I expect there to be some extensive consolidation here (marked by the ~ sign) which falls in line with data going back to last year (The S&R level also lines up with the Fib Retracements). Target 2 is a little more lenient as the entire blue rectangular area has seen consolidation, so it all depends on how aggressive you want to be. Target 3 is the neckline, and if you are very conservative, this would be your preferred entry point which would still net you a few pips which are all but guaranteed if the price hits this spot. Finally, we have Target 4 which is the upper limit of an Hourly S&R area and where you should be aiming if you want to ride the entire wave down.
Of course this is all for naught if Kashkari's speech on Monday is bullish on the USD, but if it isn't then we can see the drop happening about as fast as the one on the 15th of March. I personally do not like uncertainty regarding the news so I'm going to hold off on trading this until at least after Monday - even if it manages to hit the entry before.
As always, this isn't the gospel so make sure to take the necessary precautions when trading!
Of course this is all for naught if Kashkari's speech on Monday is bullish on the USD, but if it isn't then we can see the drop happening about as fast as the one on the 15th of March. I personally do not like uncertainty regarding the news so I'm going to hold off on trading this until at least after Monday - even if it manages to hit the entry before.
As always, this isn't the gospel so make sure to take the necessary precautions when trading!
Trade active
Trade is active but with a very tight stop in preparation for the FOMC speech.Note
Target 1 reached.Trade closed: stop reached
As predicted, the speech has negated the entirr structure. Hopefully you all had tight stops and were able to get a few pips out of this!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.