The weekly chart shows a clear head and shoulders formation forming under a major bearish descending triangle, with strong rejection from the 149.034–150.000 Sell Zone. Price action continues to print lower highs, and the horizontal support near 140 is weakening under repeated pressure.
Technical Breakdown Highlights:
• Multiple rejections forming the classic head and shoulders reversal structure.
• Price is coiling under resistance, compressing in a bearish triangle, signaling seller strength.
• Bearish momentum could trigger a breakdown toward the 119.950 support zone—nearly 2,700+ pips from current levels.
• 20 EMA is below the 200 EMA—bearish alignment.
⸻
🧠 Macro & Micro Fundamentals Supporting This Setup:
🔻 Macro (Fundamental Pressure on USD):
• The Federal Reserve is shifting dovish as inflation cools and unemployment begins to rise. Markets are now pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2025, which could weaken the USD significantly.
• The 10-year Treasury yield is falling, further reducing USD attractiveness.
• Global de-dollarization and capital flight to alternative assets (gold, crypto, BRICS currencies) adds long-term pressure on USD.
💴 Micro (Supportive Tailwinds for JPY):
• The Bank of Japan is gradually tightening—it has begun to move away from negative interest rates and yield curve control. Any shift in BoJ policy will strengthen the yen dramatically due to Japan’s massive capital flows.
• Japan remains one of the largest global creditors—capital repatriation from Japanese institutions during risk-off cycles supports the JPY.
• Safe haven demand during any geopolitical or recessionary volatility also favors the yen.
⸻
🎯 Target: 120.000
⛔️ Invalid if Weekly Closes >150.000
⏳ Timing: Breakdown likely between Q3 2025 and early 2026 if macro alignment holds.
Technical Breakdown Highlights:
• Multiple rejections forming the classic head and shoulders reversal structure.
• Price is coiling under resistance, compressing in a bearish triangle, signaling seller strength.
• Bearish momentum could trigger a breakdown toward the 119.950 support zone—nearly 2,700+ pips from current levels.
• 20 EMA is below the 200 EMA—bearish alignment.
⸻
🧠 Macro & Micro Fundamentals Supporting This Setup:
🔻 Macro (Fundamental Pressure on USD):
• The Federal Reserve is shifting dovish as inflation cools and unemployment begins to rise. Markets are now pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2025, which could weaken the USD significantly.
• The 10-year Treasury yield is falling, further reducing USD attractiveness.
• Global de-dollarization and capital flight to alternative assets (gold, crypto, BRICS currencies) adds long-term pressure on USD.
💴 Micro (Supportive Tailwinds for JPY):
• The Bank of Japan is gradually tightening—it has begun to move away from negative interest rates and yield curve control. Any shift in BoJ policy will strengthen the yen dramatically due to Japan’s massive capital flows.
• Japan remains one of the largest global creditors—capital repatriation from Japanese institutions during risk-off cycles supports the JPY.
• Safe haven demand during any geopolitical or recessionary volatility also favors the yen.
⸻
🎯 Target: 120.000
⛔️ Invalid if Weekly Closes >150.000
⏳ Timing: Breakdown likely between Q3 2025 and early 2026 if macro alignment holds.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.