USD/JPY is showing signs of a potential downtrend after failing to break above key resistance at 152.00. The pair has formed a double-top pattern on the weekly chart, with RSI divergence signaling weakening bullish momentum. A break below 150.00 could accelerate losses toward 145.00 (200-day MA) and possibly 140.00 over the next 6 months.
The US dollar may weaken as the Fed is expected to start cutting rates in late 2024/early 2025, while the BoJ could cautiously tighten policy if wage growth persists. Narrowing US-Japan yield differentials (10-year yields) would reduce JPY carry-trade appeal, supporting yen strength. MoF’s verbal warnings and past interventions near 152.00 suggest strong resistance to further yen weakness.
Sasha Charkhchian
The US dollar may weaken as the Fed is expected to start cutting rates in late 2024/early 2025, while the BoJ could cautiously tighten policy if wage growth persists. Narrowing US-Japan yield differentials (10-year yields) would reduce JPY carry-trade appeal, supporting yen strength. MoF’s verbal warnings and past interventions near 152.00 suggest strong resistance to further yen weakness.
Sasha Charkhchian
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.