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USD/JPY – Rising Wedge Meets Major Resistance

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Chart Overview:

USD/JPY is printing a textbook rising wedge formation, typically a bearish pattern—especially when occurring at the top of a major move.

What makes this setup compelling:

Price is testing the upper wedge resistance near the 148.50–149.00 region, a historically reactive zone.

There’s clear confluence with the 200 SMA, horizontal resistance, and wedge structure—all signaling potential exhaustion.

🔍 Key Technicals:

  • Resistance Zone: 148.00–149.00 (Highlighted Supply Zone)

  • Rejection Candle Pattern: Recent upper wick shows rejection and buyer fatigue

  • Bearish Divergence on RSI (14): Price made higher highs, RSI printed lower highs — a classic warning signal


🧠 Educational Note: Rising Wedge Patterns

A rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern, especially potent when it forms after an extended rally. The structure narrows as buyers lose steam, leading to a likely breakdown once support is breached.

Pro Tip: Always confirm a wedge breakdown with a close below support + volume spike or bearish engulfing.

🔄 Invalidation:

This idea becomes invalid above 150.467, where the wedge breaks upward and price potentially enters a new bullish phase. Marked clearly as “Idea Invalid” on the chart.

🧠 Final Thoughts:
This chart combines price action, pattern structure, RSI divergence, and SMA confluence — a high-probability scenario favored by elite traders. If you trade based on confirmation rather than prediction, this could be a setup to watch closely.

🗣 Drop your thoughts or questions below!
💬 Let’s learn and grow together.

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