🔥 USDJPY TRADE PLAN 🔥
📅 Date: July 24, 2025
📋 Trade Plan Overview:
Plan ID Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
USDJPY2407-ID Intra-Day Buy ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 80% 3.6:1 ✅ Active (Confirmed)
Guidance:
Prioritize this Buy Plan as price is reacting to a clean H4 demand + engulfing candle + fundamental JPY weakness. Total risk: 0.75–1%.
🆔 Primary Trade Plan: Intra-Day BUY
📈 Market Bias & Trade Type
Bias: Bullish
Trade Type: Continuation after correction into H4 OB
🔰 Confidence Level
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%)
Breakdown:
🔹 H4 Bullish OB + Engulfing: 35%
🔹 JPY macro weakness + yield spread divergence: 20%
🔹 Volume buildup on LTF demand zone: 15%
🔹 Retail crowd short-biased: 10%
🔹 Sentiment score: +7.5/10
📌 Status
✅ Active – Entry Confirmed (H4 Engulfing)
📍 Entry Zones
🟩 Primary Buy Zone:
145.85 – 146.15 (H4 Demand + Previous LTF BOS Retest)
Current Price: 146.60 (slightly above, ideal retest already occurred OR wait for another re-test of 146.30-50 zone)
❗ Stop Loss
📍 SL: 144.85
(Just below secondary zone & structural wick buffer, 60–70 pips risk)
🎯 Take Profit Targets
🎯 Target Level R:R Notes
🥇 TP1 147.35 ~1.0:1 H1 Supply imbalance
🥈 TP2 148.05 ~2.1:1 H4 Resistance/Orderblock
🥉 TP3 148.60 ~3.6:1 D1 Wick High – swing extension
🧠 Management Strategy
Risk: 0.75–1% of $[Account]
Lots: Adjust for ~60–70 pips SL
Breakeven: Move SL to BE after TP1
Partials:
40% TP1
40% TP2
20% trail to TP3
Exit Early If: DXY rallies aggressively or USDJPY H1 prints reversal signal
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
✅ H4 Bullish Engulfing Candle (Confirmed)
🔄 Tick chart volume cluster support
✅ Entry during London → NY overlap
❌ No high-impact red USD/JPY news in next 2 hours
💡 Look for additional M30 continuation on pullback
⏳ Validity
Plan valid: 24–36 hours
Expires: End of July 25 (or H4 break below 144.85)
Confirmed as active on H4
❌ Invalidation
Full H4 body close below 144.85
Sharp sell-off on high DXY momentum
Reversal signal + divergence on H1 near 147.30–148.00
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
COT: Net Long USD, Net Short JPY widening
Yield Spread: Favors USD; JPY yields still compressed
Retail: 71% short USDJPY → Contrarian Buy
DXY: Soft intraday after CPI pullback
Macro Events: BOJ dovish stance remains, no USD red news today
Sentiment Score: +7.5/10
Historical: 76% win rate on this structure with engulfing confirmation
📋 Final Trade Summary
USDJPY offers a high-probability continuation long off a clean H4 demand block that was retested with engulfing confirmation. Momentum and bias align bullishly, retail is counter-trend, and volume supports continuation. This setup provides a favorable R:R with clear invalidation and 3 well-defined profit targets. Excellent structure for intra-day to swing capture.
📅 Date: July 24, 2025
📋 Trade Plan Overview:
Plan ID Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
USDJPY2407-ID Intra-Day Buy ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 80% 3.6:1 ✅ Active (Confirmed)
Guidance:
Prioritize this Buy Plan as price is reacting to a clean H4 demand + engulfing candle + fundamental JPY weakness. Total risk: 0.75–1%.
🆔 Primary Trade Plan: Intra-Day BUY
📈 Market Bias & Trade Type
Bias: Bullish
Trade Type: Continuation after correction into H4 OB
🔰 Confidence Level
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%)
Breakdown:
🔹 H4 Bullish OB + Engulfing: 35%
🔹 JPY macro weakness + yield spread divergence: 20%
🔹 Volume buildup on LTF demand zone: 15%
🔹 Retail crowd short-biased: 10%
🔹 Sentiment score: +7.5/10
📌 Status
✅ Active – Entry Confirmed (H4 Engulfing)
📍 Entry Zones
🟩 Primary Buy Zone:
145.85 – 146.15 (H4 Demand + Previous LTF BOS Retest)
Current Price: 146.60 (slightly above, ideal retest already occurred OR wait for another re-test of 146.30-50 zone)
❗ Stop Loss
📍 SL: 144.85
(Just below secondary zone & structural wick buffer, 60–70 pips risk)
🎯 Take Profit Targets
🎯 Target Level R:R Notes
🥇 TP1 147.35 ~1.0:1 H1 Supply imbalance
🥈 TP2 148.05 ~2.1:1 H4 Resistance/Orderblock
🥉 TP3 148.60 ~3.6:1 D1 Wick High – swing extension
🧠 Management Strategy
Risk: 0.75–1% of $[Account]
Lots: Adjust for ~60–70 pips SL
Breakeven: Move SL to BE after TP1
Partials:
40% TP1
40% TP2
20% trail to TP3
Exit Early If: DXY rallies aggressively or USDJPY H1 prints reversal signal
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
✅ H4 Bullish Engulfing Candle (Confirmed)
🔄 Tick chart volume cluster support
✅ Entry during London → NY overlap
❌ No high-impact red USD/JPY news in next 2 hours
💡 Look for additional M30 continuation on pullback
⏳ Validity
Plan valid: 24–36 hours
Expires: End of July 25 (or H4 break below 144.85)
Confirmed as active on H4
❌ Invalidation
Full H4 body close below 144.85
Sharp sell-off on high DXY momentum
Reversal signal + divergence on H1 near 147.30–148.00
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
COT: Net Long USD, Net Short JPY widening
Yield Spread: Favors USD; JPY yields still compressed
Retail: 71% short USDJPY → Contrarian Buy
DXY: Soft intraday after CPI pullback
Macro Events: BOJ dovish stance remains, no USD red news today
Sentiment Score: +7.5/10
Historical: 76% win rate on this structure with engulfing confirmation
📋 Final Trade Summary
USDJPY offers a high-probability continuation long off a clean H4 demand block that was retested with engulfing confirmation. Momentum and bias align bullishly, retail is counter-trend, and volume supports continuation. This setup provides a favorable R:R with clear invalidation and 3 well-defined profit targets. Excellent structure for intra-day to swing capture.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.