XAUUSD is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle pattern. Market uncertainty remains high. The global trend is bullish, while the local trend is neutral. What can we expect from gold?Gold is falling ahead of Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. The dollar is strengthening on strong US economic data (housing sales and PMI growth), which reduces the likelihood of an early easing of Fed policy.
Key factors:
Powell may confirm a cautious approach to rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in September has fallen to 75%. The rise of the dollar as a “safe haven” is putting pressure on gold
Scenarios after the speech:
Hawkish tone from Powell → dollar rises → gold falls below $3300.
Soft signal → dollar correction → gold recovery
Technically, the gold casino continues and it is difficult to determine in advance which way the symmetrical triangle will break, but if we bet on a bullish trend and the likelihood of an imminent interest rate cut, the most likely scenario is a rebound from the support zone followed by a breakout of resistance and a rise to local levels
Resistance levels: 3350, 3358, 3370
Support levels: 3323, 3320, 3315
A false breakout of the key support level, which is being defended quite aggressively by the bulls, could trigger an active recovery phase. However, it is important to keep an eye on Powell's speech, as well as Trump's, who will also be commenting this afternoon.
Best regards, R. Linda!
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