Undead Bear Captain's Log
April 27, 2025
Will make one final attempt to chart and navigate the murky waters of the Great Bear.
XLF may be a good candidate with still distinct waves, like XRT, XLRE and XHB.
All other sectors, especially SPY are skewed by tech, same-day options and basically unchartable.
I call this map the rhythm of the great bear. It is for my own use, as I like attuning to the waves of the great ocean, the beat of music or the rise and fall of civilizations.
XBI is the nascent child, XLK the moody teen, SPY the resilient adult and DJI the steady grandparent. In markets, I think it is the child that shows the way to growth and decline. XBI shows signs of the Great Bear, having stumbled through an initial decline in 2023 and crawled its way through 2 years of recovery, the so called running flat correction.
This market has thrived through over a decade of MMT, pummeled briefly by covid, only to receive the greatest injection of digital print since all of history. The little people are suffering the effects of inflation everywhere. Wages have barely budged since 20 years ago, yet housing prices have quadupled, automobiles and everything else Mom & Dad can think of have at least doubled. People are literally crumbling toward the lowest rung of Maslow's hierachy, able only to take care of basic needs.
Beneath the streets of folks struggling to survive, we can uncover that the housing market existing home sales is basically at its lowest point since the GFC and banks are still struggling to manage the bond sell-off over the last 5 years.
On top of this decade of MMT mess, the half sane President has declared cold war on basically the entire world. He points the finger of USA's problems at everyone exept USA and magically believes USA can somehow snap factories and skilled workers into existence out of thin air to make America great again without its friends, partners (and slaves). Yet 160 year East-West civilization cycles say otherwise. In fact it points to power eventually returning to the Eastern world.
The sudden viscious market decline followed by Trump backpedalling and market rebound are strong signs of an initial wave 1, wave 2. It can wake up the bear. It can thunder the quake. It can bring on the tsunami where 15-25 such waves can arrive at an unimaginable velocity.
When such waves arrive, what is any man, woman, child to do? Who can ride such waves without a chart? The waters will flip ships, smash hulls, rip entire masts off of galleons.
Yet, with a proper chart, one could ride it like a pirate and secure the ONE PIECE.
Arr, arr, I sail into the storm, full of courage, a wee bit of wit, and an insane amount of folly!!!
Arr, arr, this be the end of the captain's log.
April 27, 2025
Will make one final attempt to chart and navigate the murky waters of the Great Bear.
XLF may be a good candidate with still distinct waves, like XRT, XLRE and XHB.
All other sectors, especially SPY are skewed by tech, same-day options and basically unchartable.
I call this map the rhythm of the great bear. It is for my own use, as I like attuning to the waves of the great ocean, the beat of music or the rise and fall of civilizations.
XBI is the nascent child, XLK the moody teen, SPY the resilient adult and DJI the steady grandparent. In markets, I think it is the child that shows the way to growth and decline. XBI shows signs of the Great Bear, having stumbled through an initial decline in 2023 and crawled its way through 2 years of recovery, the so called running flat correction.
This market has thrived through over a decade of MMT, pummeled briefly by covid, only to receive the greatest injection of digital print since all of history. The little people are suffering the effects of inflation everywhere. Wages have barely budged since 20 years ago, yet housing prices have quadupled, automobiles and everything else Mom & Dad can think of have at least doubled. People are literally crumbling toward the lowest rung of Maslow's hierachy, able only to take care of basic needs.
Beneath the streets of folks struggling to survive, we can uncover that the housing market existing home sales is basically at its lowest point since the GFC and banks are still struggling to manage the bond sell-off over the last 5 years.
On top of this decade of MMT mess, the half sane President has declared cold war on basically the entire world. He points the finger of USA's problems at everyone exept USA and magically believes USA can somehow snap factories and skilled workers into existence out of thin air to make America great again without its friends, partners (and slaves). Yet 160 year East-West civilization cycles say otherwise. In fact it points to power eventually returning to the Eastern world.
The sudden viscious market decline followed by Trump backpedalling and market rebound are strong signs of an initial wave 1, wave 2. It can wake up the bear. It can thunder the quake. It can bring on the tsunami where 15-25 such waves can arrive at an unimaginable velocity.
When such waves arrive, what is any man, woman, child to do? Who can ride such waves without a chart? The waters will flip ships, smash hulls, rip entire masts off of galleons.
Yet, with a proper chart, one could ride it like a pirate and secure the ONE PIECE.
Arr, arr, I sail into the storm, full of courage, a wee bit of wit, and an insane amount of folly!!!
Arr, arr, this be the end of the captain's log.
Trade active
Been riding the bullish storm for weeks on end, never ending waves threatening to capsize my ship every other day. The only sign remaining that this map has any validity is the position and movement of the XLE sector. Energy remains stuck at the Apr 3rd level and heading down. We ride on until we find the ONE PIECE or sink trying. Adios!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.