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XP Inc.
Long

Equity Stock Pick (6-9 Month View): XP Inc - Brazilian Fintech

137
Something different from the usual short term trade ideas.

Last Close: $47.41 (Nasdaq)

Xp Inc is a Brazil-based company engaged in the financial services industry.

XP is expensive but is growing fast. For the last quarter, assets under custody was higher by 14% QoQ but improved by 88% compared to the prior year while active clients grew by 33% over the 12 month period. Institutional gross revenues grew by 13% YoY while retail gross revenues jumped by 66% over the 12 months.

As per the press release: "Total AUC reached R$817 billion at June 30, up 88% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year growth was driven by R$298 billion of net inflows and R$83 billion of market appreciation. Our growth reinforces the strength and resiliency of our business model, distribution capabilities, product offerings, innovation and culture."

While the share is expensive on a fundamental valuation basis, the technical chart structure has caught my attention. Since June 2020, the price has traded in a sideways range, suggesting institutional accumulation throughout the period. Since it is a new 'issue', with the IPO as recent as Dec-2019, the break of the IPO range will be significant from a momentum point of view.

The buy/long condition is that traders want to monitor the $51.00-52.00 range of which a close above as well as strong price action below this range would be a signal that traders need to initiate a position, while adding above the level, on strength. Stop: $43.60. Target: Open.

Since coming to market, earnings have exceeded consensus expectations, a trend that looks set to continue.

Xp Inc is a Brazil-based company engaged in the financial services industry. The Company offers financial products and services through multiple channels, such as brokerage, investment advisory and asset management services. Its business activities include educating new classes of investors, democratizing access to a multiple financial service, developing financial products and technology applications, and providing customer service. The Company operates Open Product Platform, a financial product platform, which provides clients with access to over 600 investment products, including equity and fixed income securities, mutual and hedge funds, structured products, life insurance, pension plans, real-estate investment funds (REITs), among others. The Company serves retail clients, international clients and corporate and institutional clients in Brazil, such us fund managers, private banks, corporate treasuries and insurance companies.

Remember, let the price action confirm your entry.

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