1. News Analysis (Market Sentiment)
The news actually reflects a strongly positive sentiment for XRP’s long-term fundamentals:
Bridging the Analysis:
Here lies the crucial difference between investors and traders. As long-term investors, this kind of news would motivate us to buy and hold XRP. But as day traders, we understand the common market behavior of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News.”
The massive price rally before this announcement might indicate the market already anticipated this news. Now that the news is official, early buyers may begin taking profits, triggering selling pressure.
Sentiment Conclusion:
While the news is fundamentally positive, it could strengthen the case for a SHORT position in the short term. This “sell on good news” reaction is a common phenomenon in trading.
2. Technical Analysis (Chart Structure)
The daily chart of XRPUSDT supports a SHORT position even more convincingly:
The news actually reflects a strongly positive sentiment for XRP’s long-term fundamentals:
- "Brazil's VERT Debuts Tokenized Credit Platform on XRP Ledger With $130M Issuance": This is a very bullish piece of news. It highlights real-world adoption of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) for high-value transactions.
- "VERT Launches Blockchain Platform on XRPL for $130M Deal": This is the same news reported by a different source, confirming the significance of this adoption.
Bridging the Analysis:
Here lies the crucial difference between investors and traders. As long-term investors, this kind of news would motivate us to buy and hold XRP. But as day traders, we understand the common market behavior of “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News.”
The massive price rally before this announcement might indicate the market already anticipated this news. Now that the news is official, early buyers may begin taking profits, triggering selling pressure.
Sentiment Conclusion:
While the news is fundamentally positive, it could strengthen the case for a SHORT position in the short term. This “sell on good news” reaction is a common phenomenon in trading.
2. Technical Analysis (Chart Structure)
The daily chart of XRPUSDT supports a SHORT position even more convincingly:
- Climactic Top Rejection: A sharp price rally ends with a long upper wick candle around the $3.60 area. This is a classic sign of buyer exhaustion and aggressive seller entry.
- Short-Term Bearish Structure: A large red candle formed after the top, signaling that sellers have taken control. The current price is trading well below that top, confirming the rejection was valid.
- Room for Correction: Below the current price, there’s a clear “gap” or market inefficiency. The first logical target for a correction is around $2.80 - $2.90, where the 50 EMA meets the upper edge of the Fair Value Gap (green box). This gives us a clean profit target.
Combined Conclusion:
Yes, based on a combination of “Sell the News” sentiment and clear bearish technical structure, the argument for a SHORT position on XRPUSDT is very valid. We are going against the positive headlines, but following price action signals.
Trading Plan: SHORT Operation on XRPUSDT
Position: SHORT
Asset: XRPUSDT (Perpetual Contract)
Current Status: ENTRY
Entry Reason:
We’re entering based on short-term bearish momentum after a strong rejection from the supply zone, expecting the price to fill the inefficiency below.
Entry Type: Market Order
Why: The bearish move is in progress. We want to catch it now before the price drops further and skips our limit order. We'll execute at the current market price (~$3.01).
Stop Loss (SL): $3.62
Why: Placed slightly above the previous swing high. If price breaks this level, our SHORT thesis is invalid, and we exit to prevent further losses.
Take Profit (TP) Targets & Risk/Reward:
We'll scale out profits in phases to lock in gains.
TP1: $2.85
Why: Confluence of 50 EMA and top of Fair Value Gap
Risk/Reward: ~1:2.8 (Risking $0.61 to gain $1.75 — very healthy ratio)
TP2: $2.55
Why: Mid-point of the Fair Value Gap — a common magnet for price
TP3: $2.25
Why: Full gap fill + retest of prior support/resistance area
TP4: $1.85
Why: Ambitious target — filling the second, deeper Fair Value Gap. Possible in a panic-driven selloff.
Position Management:
Once TP1 is hit:
Move SL to Entry ($3.01) to secure a risk-free trade on the remaining position.
We’ll continue to monitor the price and adjust the trailing stop loss as each TP level is reached.- Short-Term Bearish Structure: A large red candle formed after the top, signaling that sellers have taken control. The current price is trading well below that top, confirming the rejection was valid.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.