10percentdrop — Trading Ideas on TradingView

This is how the week should play out.My initial projection from last weekend had Minor Wave B ending by the lunch hour on September 17. With more data, my projection has moved to the right a bit. It looks like the Fed press conference ending Minute wave A and we are in the early stages of Minute wave B. Fortunately it should be short lived. I project this to end with a bottom around 3360 with about 3 hours left to trade on September 17. Based on hitting that specific mark, I am projecting Minute wave C and ultimately Minor wave B to end around 3470 about one day later. I am still projecting the next down swing to begin before the week ends. Another looser projection is the end of Minor wave B based solely on Minor wave A's movement. This has Minor wave B ending near the close of trade on September 17. I no longer assess this spot to be the end. I will write again this weekend, but I am still bearish for the next two weeks before we are ready to test the ATH in mid to late October. Follow and stay tuned for more!

Upcoming Roller Coaster For Kohl's (KSS)Putting Elliott Wave Theory To Work. I have made the first of six trades today with three planned positions over the next 3 months. After breaking down the KSS chart at a technical level, I have forecasted 3 rough price points (68.42, 61.22, 75.62). PLAN #1 Entered first position at 63.37 on January 12 Plan to exit around 68.42 around January 18 This would be around an 8% gain PLAN #2 Plan to short after the exit around 68.42 on January 18 Plan to exit around 61.22 on February 23 This would be around a 10.5% drop for stock PLAN #3 Plan to enter long position around 61.22 around February 23 Plan to exit around 75.62 around April 18 This would be around a 23.5% gain

Bearish Gap Fill Pending For First Solar First Solar has been in a clearly defined downward trend since between May and August of 2016. As of the close on May 12, this stock is at the top of the cycle which is near a strongly established resistance. The projected future movements are highlighted below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 81.4842. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is well overbought and due to retreat. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 21.9577. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3173 and the negative is at 0.6377. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the positive indicator had been moving up, but may be in the early stages of its downward reversal. Projected future movement has been drawn in the VI window. The stochastic oscillator K value is 93.9795 and D value is 90.7662. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently in overbought territory. This indicator will drop, the question is will the stock drop with it or slowly begin to swing up and down? The stock recently gapped up after earnings. Gaps are typically filled, but the time in which this is done varies. Even though a closing of the gap may happen, simple movement to the bottom of the gap is much more likely and it is a staggering 11% drop from the May 12th closing price. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside, although definitive downward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 10% over the next 30 trading days if not sooner. More analysis at LimitLessLifeSkills!

NVIDIA Could Be In For Major Drop On April 28, 2017, NVIDIA stock crossed below its 100 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 106 times and the stock drops a minimum of 0.327%. The median drop is 6.170% and maximum drop is 44.146% over the next 12 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 54.3666. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down since reaching its high around February 7, 2017. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -7.3622. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading also declares the stock has been moving down since reaching its high around February 7, 2017. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0986 and the negative is at 0.8457. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been up over the recent two weeks, but has begun moving down. The stochastic oscillator K value is 90.1054 and D value is 91.7037. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is overbought and will move down. This stock has flirted with the 100 DMA for the past four days. It crossed above on day Tuesday, below on Wednesday, above and Thursday, with the final close below on Friday. Although this pattern has never occurred exactly, similar instances occurred in November 2000, February 2001, August 2001, February 2002, February 2007, December 2007, May 2011, October 2012. The final cross down lead to a 44.146%, 19.294%, 37.098%, 19.964%, 14.52%, 32.122%, 5.986%, 10.038% respective drop over the following 12 trading days. These drops all seem drastic but could be a signal of chaos for the NVDA stock. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 4.05% if not more over the next 12 trading days. Based on the similar historical flirtations with the 100 DMA, Stochastic, RSI, and TSI, the drop could be much more than the projected 4.05%. FUNDAMENTAL TAKE: Earnings for NVIDIA will occur in this timeframe. The estimated EPS is much lower than it has been which could also signal downward movement in the longer term. This stock is incredibly overpriced in comparison to similar stocks in this sector.

When it rains it pours on BX Historically when the coppock curve reaches this level the stock drops at least 1% over the next few weeks with an average drop of more than 11%. I am looking at two levels over that time but also monitoring two timeframes for a significant loss to take place. My conservative drop is around 25.81 where the stock floated multiple times since the election. This would only be a 4.53%, but conservatively most likely to be a sure thing. The other play is near the bottom of the trendchannel. BX has dropped from the top of the channel to the bottom twice this year. The first occurred over 11 trading days and the second occurred over 53 trading days. Since BX is already beyond that 11 day point, I marked out 23 days (roughly half of 53) and 53 trading days. If the bottom of the channel is hit, it could happen within one of these timeframes. A perfect storm of levels are pointing at January 17 (23 days from the top of the trend channel) and January 18 (roughly 10% drop from January 2). The 10 percent drop is a more conservative figure than the average 11.56% decline.

WHERE IS THE NEXT BOTTOM for BX??Historically when this level is reached on the VI, the stock drops at least another 1.19%. The average drop is 10.92%. A drop beyond 10.92% is not out of the question at this point. The current trendchannel has a bottom more than 12% from the CLOSE on December 28. My conservative move is a drop to 25.95 where the stock hit eight days in a row at the end of November. Last time the stock was at 27.33, it dropped 11.45% over the following 11 days which also supports a pending significant drop.

SPY off Double Top is going down SPY completed a Double Top on August 23, 2016. This common signal should allow for some downtrend in the future. The question is at what level will support be found. After the "RUMINT" from Jackson Hole was released, the first level of support was broken. A 10% correction from the Double Top would occur around 198, which is Support Level 5. Depending on how fast Level 5 is broken, the market could be in freefall mode at this time. In summary, we are going down, but question is how far