1percentgain — Trading Ideas on TradingView

BONDS YIELD PREDICTION!!!!! US02Y DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis for 2 year bond yield on the Daily Timeframe. POINTS: 1. Since the beginning of this upward trend on January 2022 we have seen that bonds and the overall market are said to share an inverse relationship but during pivotal moments that has not been the case as you can see that the stock market has risen along with bonds and vise versa . 2. Deviation in SUPLY & DEMAND POCKETS is clearly shown to be every 1% RISE IN YIELDS . (Refer to BLUE & ORANGE Horizontal Lines) 3. Before entry is made into a new DEMAND POCKET price action has a distinctive pump that has occurred several times. (Refer to white lines between SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS). 4. Predicted rise was formulated by using the average of previous last two pumps of +40.92% and +54.21% = +48% when rounded. 5. Average does in fact coincide with previous point of resistance when bond yields rose to 6% in the early 2000's. (A POINT THAT I WOULD CONSIDER TO BE A PIVOT POINT) 6. When you observe MACD we can also conclude that downward pressure is looking for relief like in past occasions. SCENARIO #1: Bond Yields continue to rise and follow uptrend into early 2023 which can then signify that a market bottom is yet to be confirmed. SCENARIO #2: Bond Yields break crucial SUPPORT OF 4.000% and will invalidate current setup. Possibly being followed by capitulation in the stock market since falls in yields seem to be more closely tied to falls in the overall market than the inverse relationship. TVC:US02Y

Exelon is Directionless On March 31, 2017 the Exelon Corporation ( NYSE:EXC ) crossed above its 50 day MA for the fourth time in two weeks. Historically the 50 MA cross has occurred 348 times and the stock does not always rise. It has a median gain of 2.905 % and maximum gain of 18.413 % over the next 10 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 51.1549. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 2.8606. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is neutral and has been slowly trending down for two weeks. Both vortex indicators (VI) are below 1 with the positive at 0.9213 and negative at 0.8946. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is neutral. The stochastic oscillator K value is 43.8377 and D value is 43.5741. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is neutral with future direction unknown. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall near-term stock direction appears to be indiscernible. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain 1.18% over the next two weeks. The stock has been in a tight neutral channel throughout most of 2017. The last three time this crossover occurred in the last 15 days the stock rose at least 1%.

ANOTHER 1% GAIN IN THE CARDS FOR AT&T?Historically when TSI reaches this level the stock climbs an average of 4.93% with the minimal movement of 1.25% over the next few weeks. My technical analysis has T at the top of the downward trendchannel which would signal an immediate retreat. Both options could still occur in the near future which ultimately lead down, but not before quickly breaching the top of the trendchannel and immediately heading down. Based on my analysis, the stock could move up to around the 42.70 level which is a commonly hit level from earlier this year. I would expect it to provide a conservative resistance level.