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2-10yearyield

US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptBo88
10Y Note Auction & Why Markets did %10 Movement with Last Data?Hello Traders tomorrow we have 10-Year Note Auction data and I wanted to prepare a nice little information for you about this topic because the data released last month showed an immediate 10% increase and from what I saw, many people had no idea what was happening. 📌 What is the 10-Year Note Auction? The U.S. government regularly issues 10-year Treasury notes to finance its budget. The auction result reflects investor demand and long-term interest rate expectations. The yield (interest rate) that results from the auction is a key benchmark for financial markets globally. 🔄 Connection to U.S. Stocks and EUR/USD 🟢 If Demand Is Strong (Yields Stay Low): Investors are eager to buy U.S. debt, pushing prices up and yields down. This indicates confidence in the U.S. economy and little concern about inflation or rate hikes. Stock markets generally react positively. 🔴 If Demand Is Weak (Yields Rise): Investors require higher returns, possibly due to inflation fears or policy tightening expectations. This pushes yields up, increasing borrowing costs and reducing the attractiveness of risk assets. Stocks typically decline, and the dollar strengthens. 💱 Effect on EUR/USD 🟢 If Yields Rise: U.S. dollar becomes more attractive due to higher returns. Investors buy USD to invest in Treasuries. EUR/USD typically falls. 🔴 If Yields Fall: Lower yields reduce the appeal of the dollar. Investors may move capital elsewhere. EUR/USD tends to rise. 🗓️ Latest 10-Year Treasury Auction – April 9, 2025 Auction Size: $39 billion High Yield: 4.435% Expected (WI) Yield: 4.465% Outcome: Strong demand – yield came in lower than expected. 📊 Post-Auction Market Reactions 🔹 10Y Treasury Yield: Before auction: ~4.466% After auction: Dropped to ~4.38% ➝ Reflects strong investor demand and confidence in long-term stability. 🔹 S&P 500 Index: Lower yields reduce borrowing costs and support equity valuations. Investors often shift toward riskier assets like stocks when yields fall. The S&P 500 responded positively after the auction. 🔹 EUR/USD: Falling yields reduce the dollar's relative appeal. This may push EUR/USD higher, depending on other macroeconomic influences (like ECB policy or geopolitical risks). ✅ Conclusion The April 9, 2025, 10-year Treasury auction showed strong demand with a yield lower than market expectations. This led to a drop in yields, a positive reaction in U.S. stock markets, and potential downward pressure on the dollar, which may support EUR/USD.
TVC:US10Y
by UmutTrades
Did the 10 year yield break in 2008?Good day Traders and investors, The 10 year yield on the 6 month chart. This is the entire history on one chart. What is going on with the 10 year yield? It is getting very, very volatile. It all started in 2008 with the financial crisis just looming around the corner. At the same time it broke the .236 on the Fibonacci sequence and has been diving ever since. That is until the next major crisis of the pandemic where is seems to have bottomed and took a strong bounce off a cliff dive. What does all this mean? did something break in 2008 like a lot of economist are saying? It's very possible. When we look at the chart, the 10 year yield compared to the last decade has been very stable. Even during the Volker years (late 70's early 80's) when interest rates spikes it barely made a move out from the norm and then rode the top of the trend as support for years until 2008. This volatility break out does look deferent and kind of scary. What will the volatility lead too, massive spike? or massive plunge? Could it also just bounce around sideways for years? What we have to keep in mind is, these are historically long-term trends. 20 to 40 years. Could this move up be a fake out? Yes, I think it's possible, however a fake out is on this chart 5 to 10 years, so it's of no major concern at the moment. THE INDICATRORS Right away, when look at the chart and the RSI, we see clear weakening and bearish divergence on the trend. We can see it playing out (bearish divergence) from 1968 to 1981, when the yield made a higher high but the RSI made a lower low. As we can see the divergence did play out, but it took almost 2 generations in 40 years. Also the ASO has been showing that the sentiment over the yield has been lessening over the years on the up swings and down swings, but it just had a major cross, so is that over now? Time will tell, a lot of it. Touching on the Historical volatility again, we clearly see a sense of somewhat controlled or stable volatility for close to 100 years until 2008. Could this new volatility be the new trending range for the next hundred years? Possibly, if so, it shouldn't concern us. For now, we should just focus on the next 5 to 10 years and see what happens. I have included a couple of scenarios in the chart. If the RSI gets rejected from this down trend, then yes, this is the chance that it could be a fake out move and then reverse and go lower. If volatility stays high and the trend is to go up for 20 to 40 years then I do believe the RSI would have to break this down trend. both of those in my opinions are scary, the 2nd one than the first. There is also sideways action for a decade and possible a cool down of the volatility before the next move, I would prefer this one, as it seems less scary to me. THE FLUFF AND EXTRA I think the yields being a fake out and go lower is the least likely scenario. However, (and here is the Fluff) my conspiracy mind has one scenario where this could happen. It all hinges and plays on CBDC's becoming a thing during this time frame. The theory is if CBDC's are introduced within the next 5 to 10 years then the yields could reverse, go back and make new lows at some point. The reason being is I don't think we can go negative yields without CBDC's. That doesn't mean it's a given if CBDC are implemented, it means the doorway would be opened for it. Remember, this is just FLUFF and opinion and means nothing. Kind regards & Have great day Demetrios
TVC:US10Y
by WeAreSat0shi
1
10-Year T-Note vs. 10-Year Yield Futures: Which One To Trade?Introduction: The 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are two prominent instruments in the financial markets, offering traders unique opportunities to capitalize on interest rate movements. This video compares these two products, focusing on their key characteristics, liquidity, and the differences in point and tick values, ultimately helping you decide which one to trade. Key Characteristics: 10-Year T-Note Futures represent a contract based on the value of U.S. Treasury notes with a 10-year maturity, while 10-Year Yield Futures are based on the yield of these notes. The T-Note Futures contract size is $100,000, while the 10-Year Yield Futures contract size is based on $1,000 per index point, reflecting a $10 DV01 (dollar value of a one basis point move). Liquidity Comparison: Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures are highly liquid, with substantial daily trading volumes and open interest. This high liquidity ensures tight spreads and efficient trade execution, providing traders with confidence in entering and exiting positions in both markets. Point and Tick Values: Understanding the point and tick values is crucial for effective trading. For 10-Year T-Note Futures, each tick is 1/32nd of a point, worth $31.25 per contract. The 10-Year Yield Futures have a tick value of 0.001 percent, worth $1.00 per contract. These values influence trading costs and profit potential differently and are essential for precise strategy formulation. Margin Information: The initial margin requirement for 10-Year T-Note Futures typically ranges around $1,500 per contract, while the maintenance margin is slightly lower. For 10-Year Yield Futures, the initial margin is approximately $500 per contract, reflecting its lower notional value and DV01. Maintenance margins for yield futures are also marginally lower, providing traders with flexible capital management options. Trade Execution: We demonstrate planning and placing a bracket order for both products. Using TradingView charts, we set up entry and exit points, showcasing how the different tick values and liquidity levels impact trade execution and potential outcomes. Risk Management: Effective risk management is vital when trading futures. Utilizing stop-loss orders and hedging techniques can mitigate potential losses. Avoiding undefined risk exposure and ensuring precise entries and exits help maintain a balanced risk-reward ratio, which is essential for long-term trading success. Conclusion: Both 10-Year T-Note Futures and 10-Year Yield Futures offer unique advantages. The choice depends on your trading strategy, risk tolerance, and market outlook. Watch the full video for a detailed analysis and insights on leveraging these products in your trading endeavors. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
4
Bearish on DXYThis week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone. Let's see what happens . . . If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for this year. I believe we can expect the yellow scenario. Otherwise, we can expect the red scenario happens in short term.
TVC:US10YShort
by SamanFx0
Inverted Yield of 2022 Explained - Till TodayFor our housing loan, many of us, if you are in your 30s today and all the way to 70 years of age, will likely have chosen floating or short-term loan rates rather than longer-term loan rates. However, everything changed in 2022. Now, we are more likely to choose longer-term loan rates over floating rates. Why? Because today, longer-term loan rates are lower than floating rates. This phenomenon is called an inverted yield curve. In the 70s and 80s, there was also a period of inverted yields, and different markets moved accordingly as expected. Today, we are seeing an inverted yield once again, and the same markets are moving in a manner similar to those in the 70s and 80s. We will do a comparison between the 70s and today’s inverted yield. Please let me know what opportunities you see after this tutorial. 2 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Long
by konhow
2
Market is Sensitive to what Jerome Powell is SayingAt the latest FOMC meeting on January 31st, Jerome Powell stated, 'The Fed is not ready to start cutting,' which immediately caused the yield to pivot higher. During an recent interview on Sunday, February 4th, he reiterated that the US central bank is not yet prepared to cut interest rates, resulting in another increase in the yield. Today, we will discuss the direction of the yield or interest rates in the coming months, as well as why the Fed is carefully considering its decision to cut rates this time. My name is Kon How, my work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities. Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
Interest Rates Trading and Hedging Through a New LensIntroduction In the dynamic world of financial markets, Micro 10-Year Yield Futures stand out as a pivotal tool for traders and investors. These futures offer unique opportunities to navigate the complexities of interest rates, particularly in an environment influenced by key economic indicators. This article delves into how traders can leverage both fundamental economic data and a novel technical analysis approach to optimize their strategies in trading and hedging with these futures. Fundamental Analysis Approach Understanding CPI, PPI, and Unemployment Rate: Consumer Price Index (CPI): This indicator measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It's a critical gauge of inflation, directly impacting interest rates and, consequently, the yields on Treasury securities. Producer Price Index (PPI): PPI tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation when producers pass on higher costs to consumers. Unemployment Rate: This key metric reflects the number of unemployed workers as a percentage of the labor force. It’s vital for assessing the health of the economy, influencing monetary policy and interest rates. These indicators, notably their changes, provide crucial insights for active trading, particularly in hedging strategies with Micro 10-Year Yield Futures. For instance, a higher-than-expected CPI or PPI might signal rising inflation, prompting traders to anticipate rate hikes and adjust their positions accordingly. How to incorporate Fundamental Analysis into the trade decision process? When making trading decisions for Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, it's crucial to understand the impact of economic reports on interest rates: Buying (Long) Position Rationale: When CPI, PPI, and Employment Rate (opposite of unemployment) are all increasing (indicated by green color on the chart), it typically suggests an expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures. In such scenarios, interest rates are likely to rise to manage inflation. Hence, buying 10-Year Yield Futures could become a strategic move, anticipating a potential uptick in yields. Selling Existing Long Positions: A decrease in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential slowdown or less aggressive inflationary pressure. Traders holding long positions might consider selling to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential drop in yields. Selling (Short) Position Rationale: If these reports show a decreasing trend (indicated by red color on the chart), it suggests economic contraction or reduced inflationary pressure. Lower interest rates are often introduced to stimulate economic growth in such conditions. Shorting 10-Year Yield Futures could be advantageous as it would benefit from a potential fall in yields. Buying Existing Short Positions: An increase in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures. Traders holding short positions might consider buying to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential rise in yields. Rationale Behind the Rules: These rules are based on the traditional economic relationship between inflation, economic activity, and interest rates. Rising inflation or strong economic growth (indicated by higher CPI, PPI, and Employment Rates) often leads to higher interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Conversely, decreasing indicators suggest an economy that might need stimulation, often leading to lower interest rates. By aligning trading strategies with these fundamental economic principles, traders can make more informed decisions, leveraging economic trends to speculate or hedge effectively. Technical Analysis Approach Yield Extremes and Curve Analysis: This approach involves charting and combining the 2-Year and 30-Year yield futures contracts in one chart. Analyzing the relationship between these yields provides insights similar to traditional yield curve analysis in a much more accessible format. Key Indicator: A crossover between the 2-Year and 30-Year rates signifies a substantial shift in market sentiment and economic outlook. How to Incorporate Technical Analysis into the Trade Decision Process? As said, the crossover of yield rates between the 2-year and the 30-year yields is a pivotal event, suggesting significant changes in the yield curve. Here's how to interpret and act on these occurrences: Identifying the Crossover Event: A crossover event occurs when the 2-year yield rate overtakes the 30-year rate, or vice versa. This event is indicative of a significant change in the interest rate environment, reflecting shifts in economic expectations and monetary policy. Trading Strategy Based on Micro 10-Year Prior Price Action: When the crossover occurs, the immediate strategy depends on the recent trend in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures prices. If the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending upwards prior to the crossover, it suggests bullish sentiment in the shorter term. In this scenario, traders could consider taking a short position, anticipating a potential reversal or bearish shift in the market. Conversely, if the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending downwards, indicating bearish sentiment, traders could consider a long position post-crossover, capitalizing on the potential for a bullish reversal or recovery in prices. Rationale Behind the Trade Rules: The crossover event between the 2-Year and 30-Year yields represents a pivotal shift in market dynamics, often reflecting changes in economic policy, inflation expectations, or investor sentiment. Prior price action in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures provides a context for these shifts, indicating the market's prevailing trend and sentiment. By aligning trading actions with both the yield curve dynamics (crossover event) and the recent trend of the Micro 10-Year Futures, traders can make informed decisions, leveraging the market's anticipated reaction to these significant economic indicators. Market Outlook and Trade Plan Keeping in mind the below tick and (Average True Range) ATR values, based on our analysis, we could express our market views through the following hypothetical set-ups: Trade Plan for the Fundamental Analysis Approach: ENTRY: Wait for the next CPI, PPI and Employment Rate reports and consider executing a trade if all 3 reports are either positive (long) or negative (short). STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price Trade Plan for the Technical Analysis Approach: ENTRY: The crossover may confirm itself at the end of the day. Wait for such confirmation and consider executing a short trade once confirmed. STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price Tick Value: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Monthly ATR: The average volatility is measured as 0.509 at the time of this report Trade Example: If the 2-Year yield rises above the 30-Year yield amid rising CPI, consider a short position anticipating rate hikes. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate this ratio to ensure a balanced approach to potential gains versus losses. Risk Management in Futures Trading Effective risk management is paramount. Utilize stop-loss orders and consider hedging techniques to mitigate potential losses. Understand the significance of economic reports and yield curve shifts in making informed decisions. Conclusion Micro 10-Year Yield Futures offer a versatile platform for interest rate trading and hedging. By combining monthly economic updates with a unique yield curve analysis approach, traders can navigate these markets with greater confidence and strategic foresight. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
xauusd trade idea for the weekGold prices (XAU/USD) rebounded on Friday on risk-off sentiment, shrugging off the rise in U.S. Treasury yields ahead of a key FOMC gathering in the coming days. In late morning trading, bullion was up about 0.75% to $1,925 as equity indices took a nosedive, with the Nasdaq 100 down nearly 1% amid widespread weakness in the technology sector. Despite today's move, the precious metal's advance may be temporary, especially if the Federal Reserve embraces a hawkish position at its September meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, but could leave the door open to additional monetary tightening this year and signal that monetary policy will stay restrictive for an extended period. With the U.S. economy displaying remarkable resilience, as demonstrated by recent data, the Fed should remain vigilant. Prematurely declaring victory could ease financial conditions dramatically, endangering the progress made on the inflation front thus far. Policymakers are likely aware of this, and as a result, may lean towards a higher-for-longer stance and maximum optionality – a negative outcome for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ttrade-With-Logic
Bank Run to Gold Rush Gold rush up accordingly to each major news during the bank run crisis in March. Problem seems to subside for now. We will explore the possibility of a contagion effect to a wider bank run in this video. A story of having too much money problem • It is a bank – need to pay interest to depositors • During pandemic - invested 10yrs bonds yield average 1.79% • Before Feb 2022 Fed fund rate at 0.25% • Mar 2023 Fed fund rate at 5% How about the other banks, will they also have a similar problem in time to come? With uncertainty still lingering I am seeing opportunities in Gold, other precious metals and commodities. 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by konhow
1
Inflation is plateauing and likely to end flat in 2023Inflation is plateauing and likely to end flat in 2023, so what will that impact the markets? Though inflation peaked at 9% last year and has been declining to 6.4%, CPI seems to be plateauing and may close flat in 2023, but this is not good news at all. Why? Because the Fed wanted to see the CPI or inflation coming down to 2% in a sustained manner. Studying across the 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-years yield, we are seeing all the 4 yields almost breaking above its October 2022 all time high again. As long as the inflation remain flat at this current level, the Fed will continue its moderate rate hikes. Therefore, we are expecting more volatility ahead with a flat inflation number. This is definitely bad news for the stock investors, but not for the traders. Since 3rd week of 2022, I have exited from my long-term hold for the U.S. stock markets to trading the U.S. indices with much anticipated inflation and volatility. Also, trading into the Micro Yield Futures. Since it is on an uptrend, I prefer to focus mainly on buy on dip strategy. CME Micro Years Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
30Y US Bonds signal a correction for SPXAs you can see for the past 9 years 30 year US government bonds was in positive correlation with S&P. The correlation is not 1:1 but about 80% of the times they move together. Two incidents where they were separated was March 2020 Covid event and the subsequent bull run. Even during most of the massive bull run they moved together but a drop in 30 year yields translated as smaller corrections for SPX. 30 year yields have always been moving in a range and currently we have reached the top of that range. Based on the previous cycles we can expect 30Y yields to start traveling down towards the bottom of the range while dragging SPX down with it. As we are in a different situation now than 2021 where there was an abundance of liquidity I expect this next cycle of bottoming impacting SPX more than those bullish times. I don't mean that this will be a cataclysmic event that will crash and burn the markets but it will the beginning of a volatile sideways move in markets. And per my previous idea I expect SPX to come down around 3650 or lower during this phase. The economical factors that will be deciding the size of these corrections will be FED's determination in QT and individual company performances.
SP:SPXShort
by Kryptolinks
10Y Rate - Headed HigherToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1W linear scale chart for 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX). In December 2021, I posted a chart showing that the 10Y rate was going to go much higher. I was exactly on point almost to the exact number. Today I was reviewing the 10Y rate chart and saw the RSI formed a double bottom base with the 10Y rate ready to make another move higher. I also added in the Keltner Channel indicator which shows that when the 10Y rate is higher than the median line, there is a strong chance it touches the top of the Keltner Channel. I see the 10Y as well as other long term rates going much higher as shown in the chart. If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
1
The yield curve has inverted, how to overcome this?Content: • Difference between interest rate and yield? • Why it is important to note of yield curve inversion? • How to tell when Yields are inverted? • What is the long-term trend for interest rates and yields • How to manage a rising yield? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. 1. Difference between interest rate and yield? i. Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers and ii. Yields are for lenders. For eg. investors to the U.S. government iii. Both interest rates and yields move in tandem together 3. Why is it important to note yield inversion? i. For eg. - when the return on a 30-years yield is lower than the 2-year yield, that indicates a ii. For lenders or investors – a pessimistic outlook, a reluctance to commit their money to the longer-term bond, they prefer short-term deposits as the market is unclear in the long-term. iii. For borrowers – most individuals or companies have shorter-term borrowing, for eg a 2 years fixed rate or a bridging loan. When the yields are inverted, suddenly they find them paying more on interest rates repayment. Since interest rates and yields move in tandem, expect the shorter-term lending rates to go higher. This will hurt companies and individuals who have higher leverage items on their books. If you are into shorter-term trading, do look into the market with live feed data. I am starting an inflation series, in the next video tutorial, we will discuss why inflation is happening not just in U.S. but all around the world. Micro 10 Years Yield Futures 0.001 = US$1 3.488 = 3488 x US$1 = US$3,488 3188 to 3488 = 300 x US$1 = US$300
TVC:US02Y
by konhow
DESCENDING CHANNEL - Range Trading StrategyHello my Fellow TraderZ, Today this is not any Trade idea but a TUTORIAL on how to Trade the RANGE or the CHANNEL. This is simple, safe, profitable and straight forward Price Action strategy. Here we are taking the chart of US Govt. Bond 10Y-yield. This is the perfect setup of DECENDING CHANNEL on MONTHLY chart. No time bound you can trade at any TIMEFRAMES, but Higher Time Frames are more reliable. You see, to draw any Trendline we need minimum 2/3 touch points. Whenever the price touches the Trendline, never open any Trade in RUSH, wait, see the kind of candles forming at Touch Points (at LOWER TL = BULLISH PA, at UPPER TL = BEARISH PA). PA = Price Action. This should be coupled with the VOLUME. Notice the S/R areas, where price gives multiple hits before bounce or rejection. This will give you extra boost as these horizontal S/R are more reliable than Dynamic S/R. Also these areas could be your Pivots to make ENTRY(incase price doesn't hit the channel Trendlines) or TP Targets. Look at the Percentage(%) wise gains simply following the channel(BUY THE LOW, SELL THE HIGH). Well I've just mentioned the BUYS, you can add the short positions also. Until the price is in channel you can take Multiple Trades both LONGing and SHORTing the market, unless the channel Breaks. This is the beauty of Range Trading. Similarly you can trade ASCENDING CHANNEL/WEDGES as well. NOTE : PRICE ACTION is majorly important in the Game of Trading. If you like this content, kindly give a FOLLOW & BOOST to me. Also COMMENT to bring more such #educational contents. Sorry if its a bit Lengthy post. Happy Trading . CHEERS!!!
TVC:US10YEducation
by TRADER-GOKU
1
10 YEAR Bond Yield Just Broke Above Multi-Decade TrendlineHey Guys, in this video I give my opinion that the 10 Year Bond Yield has broken out above it's multi-decade downward trendline and it's set to go higher because inflation is growing significantly and is at historical extremes above the 10 year yield. I think it's because of the Fed that has absolutely over-flooded the system with liquidity, check out the chart below of central bank assets as a % of GDP. This has big long term implications for all investors and traders, it could possibly cause poor stock market returns for decades to come in addition to the already painful higher cost of living relative to wages. Imo, Fed official's have turned millennials pensions and investments into "boomer exit liquidity" for their own benefit. They borrowed from the future and we will pay the price for that for years to come. Let me hear your comments below with what you think about all of this? Did the Fed go too far? Are rates at the start of a multi-decade bull market? Jared
TVC:TNXLong
by Click-Capital
10 YEAR YIELD GOING HIGHER MOST LIKELYIn the current high inflation environment we are in and with the Rus-Ukr war pushing energy and other commodity prices higher and higher, we can all agree yields on bonds have every right to move way higher then we have been seeing the past few years. The peak of the 'Tamper-Tantrums' back in November 2018 (Seen with black arrow) we can see the 10 year yield was higher than current levels. This was also when the fed wasn't that eager to release a 9 trillion dollar balance sheet back to market and when inflation levels were no where near what we are seeing (and feeling...) today. I do think we could be seeing the 10Y yield trying those levels (hit a little over 3% during those times) in the upcoming weeks. I do think the market will be ahead of the Fed, and push it to move higher faster. We may even break the 3% level.. especially if there is a hyper-inflation panic. Faster Bond movements could drag the market down (especially high flyers, tech stocks, etc) as e have seen in the recent past. We had a 2y/10y inversion last week which could be a leading recession indicator. In any case, be sure it's the Bond markets that will be setting the tone. Trade with caution :)
TVC:US10YLong
by LEO_IAMNOTUNCERTAIN_55555