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2013

Blow off top 4th - 14th December (2021 chart)Takeaways: 234 days from first high to last high in 2013, will put us at 4th of December. 147 days from mid-summer dip reversal would but us at 14th of December. Another interesting fact is that the average of both previous cycle hit of 2.272 (close to ATH ) is 4th of December (2013 28 Nov/2017 12 Dec) Also, new moons are a very reliant top indicator (often 2-3 days within tops) ALL of the three cycles had new moons at or days within the blow-off tops.
BNC:BLX
by Morteno
Blow off top 4th - 14th December Takeaways: 234 days from first high to last high in 2013, will put us at 4th of December. 147 days from mid-summer dip reversal would but us at 14th of December. Another interesting fact is that the average of both previous cycle hit of 2.272 (close to ATH) is 4th of December (2013 28 Nov/2017 12 Dec) Also, new moons are a very reliant top indicator (often 2-3 days within tops) ALL of the three cycles had new moons at or days within the blow-off tops.
BNC:BLXLong
by Morteno
BTC Fractal 2013 vs 2020Hi all, M2S here with a view into 2 possible BTC fractals I am seeing. This particular charts show the completion of the correction from the previous ATH at the white line for both 2013 and 2020 bull runs. The red dotted line looks to be the mean regression line that BTC has been following since 2011. I see this as the correct fractional at the moment and will link to the 2017 fractional comparison in the comments below, which I do not think will play out. These look more similar to me as BTC gathered support at a lower level and took out the previous high (white horizontal line) without any issue continuing to use the the 20 W EMA as support. The green horizontal lines show where the previous initial bull run stopped for its first meaningful correction to the 20 W EMA and where the current 202 run might take a pit stop. Thanks for checking out the idea! Let me know what you think below, your two sats (play on "your two cents") in the comments are welcome and always very much appreciated! M2S *This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*
BNC:BLXLong
by my2satoshis
Comparing BTC with the 2013 and 2014 cyclesI keep seeing the 2014 bear fractal charts everywhere. There seems to be a trend going on or something. However, many people forget that before 2014, there was another rally, in early 2013. Both rallies ended in a large correction, with a subsequent logarithmic downtrend line. In both cases the trendline was broken. In 2014 it was a failed breakout, meaning that after breaking through the log res, it failed to go above the previous fibonacci resistance (mostly the 0.5 and 0.38 fib levels from the entire rise of the bull move). It then continued to decline. In 2013 however, we see a successful breakout from the downtrend line, leading to the second rally of 2013. The question is now: Which path will BTC take now? I think that BTC will continue to climb to the 0.38 fibo level, around 11500. Then, the usual oscillations, and afterwards it shall be decided if BTC does another rally like in 2013, or fails and continues to decline like in 2014. People who pretend to know are liars, no one knows what will happen. However, one can position himself or herself accordingly after we hit 11500. I will be prepared for both scenarios. Luckily, after the first pumps or dumps, it should be clear which direction BTC will take :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
4
4x monthly growth corresponds with CME futures launchAnother doomsday prediction (more for fun to see if it really plays out) for when the BTC bubble will pop The April 2013 and the December 2013 bubbles saw a maximum of 4.3x and 4.5x cumulative monthly growth figures in the 2 days before each bubble popped. Until last week we were sitting quite comfortably in the 2x monthly growth channel. However with the recent run-up and dump, the new channel that has formed(?) looks likely to be an 8x monthly growth channel - i.e. BTC will double over the next week. This will lead us once again to a 4x cummulative monthly growth - similar to what BTC did twice in 2013. Usually there is a trigger though as to the price movements. I think the CME futures is the carrot on the stick which will lead to this growth. What actually happens on the 18th of December is anybody's guess though. Maybe the Korean's release some major FUD about banning exchange, or maybe there's so wild manipulation with the futures by wall street and co will dump the price. Or maybe people will just be like, "yup this is too crazy, I'm getting out " and the panic selling starts. Who knows. Maybe the bubble won't pop and we truly are in "new paradigm" territory as stated on all the charts describing sentiment around stock bubbles. Either way, bubbles have happened way too often in history, and in my opinion, this time is no different. Anyway, my random bubble pop target is 25k€ or 30k USD This graph is mainly so I can have record of what happened. If it holds true, I'll be setting sell stops 2k€ below the current price after we hit 20k€.
by kdleschinski